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The Reds are still on course to play the Giants in the first round of the playoffs - a team 23% of you said you wanted to see in the NLDS in that poll.
They have a slight edge over the Giants in their season series, taking 4 of 7 and outscoring them 28-21. It's different in the playoffs, of course - not just because of the wall-to-wall bunting. The Reds faced April editions of Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong and then got Bumgarner, Cain, Zito and Vogelsong on the West Coast trip in the middle of the summer.
While the Giants are taking all 5 starters to the playoffs, in a short series the Reds will almost certainly see Cain first, then Bumgarner. There's an argument to be made for Bruce Bochy to save one of his aces for GABP, given that Vogelsong and Lincecum have pitched a lot better at home this season. But that's probably as likely as Dusty running Homer out 2nd.
After the first two, it gets a little murky. Vogelsong seems to be tumbling down a cliff. Lincecum blew up again after showing signs of selfhood over the last two months. Barry Zito is, if nothing else, on the playoff roster.
The Reds need to split the two games in San Francisco not to have their backs against the wall when they get back to Cincinnati. I hate the playoff format when I say that out loud, but that's just how it is.
Taking a "whatever" stance on Zito/Lincecum/Vogelsong, let's look at how the Reds match up against the Giants' aces and their team as a whole.
30,000 ft.
2012 record: 4-3
Runs scored: 28
Runs allowed: 21
2010-'12 record: 12-9
Reds offense vs. Giants ('12): .254/.316/.414
Reds pitching vs. Giants ('12): 2.63 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, .258./.321/.373 opp-line
Giants' offense
vs. RHP: .269 .333 .388
vs. LHP: .271 .318 .416
A likely lineup:
Angel Pagan (S) CF
Marco Scutaro (R) 2B
Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
Buster Posey (R) C
Hunter Pence (R) RF
Brandon Belt (L) 1B
Gregor Blanco (L) / Xavier Nady (R) LF
Brandon Crawford (L) SS
Matt Cain
2012:
| PA | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Leake | 3 | 0 | 1 | .667 | .667 | 1.667 | 2.333 |
| Jay Bruce | 7 | 1 | 0 | .833 | .857 | 1.167 | 2.024 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 6 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .833 | 1.167 |
| Zack Cozart | 7 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .286 | .857 | 1.143 |
| Brandon Phillips | 7 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .286 | .714 | 1.000 |
| Joey Votto | 7 | 1 | 2 | .333 | .429 | .500 | .929 |
| Drew Stubbs | 7 | 1 | 1 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .733 |
| Scott Rolen | 6 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 3 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Mat Latos | 2 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 58 | 3 | 14 | .296 | .333 | .611 | .944 |
Career:
| PA | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Phillips | 30 | 0 | 8 | .233 | .233 | .500 | .733 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 27 | 3 | 6 | .364 | .444 | .818 | 1.263 |
| Joey Votto | 27 | 4 | 3 | .304 | .407 | .391 | .799 |
| Jay Bruce | 17 | 4 | 1 | .462 | .588 | .615 | 1.204 |
| Scott Rolen | 13 | 0 | 3 | .231 | .231 | .462 | .692 |
| Drew Stubbs | 13 | 1 | 4 | .091 | .167 | .182 | .348 |
| Zack Cozart | 7 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .286 | .857 | 1.143 |
| Mat Latos | 6 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Chris Heisey | 5 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Xavier Paul | 5 | 0 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Miguel Cairo | 3 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .667 | .500 | 1.167 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Mike Leake | 3 | 0 | 1 | .667 | .667 | 1.667 | 2.333 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 3 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Homer Bailey | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Sam LeCure | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 |
| Sean Marshall | 2 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Dioner Navarro | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 172 | 13 | 37 | .263 | .322 | .487 | .809 |
Madison Bumgarner
2012:
| PA ▾ | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Cozart | 4 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Drew Stubbs | 4 | 2 | 1 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
| Jay Bruce | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Miguel Cairo | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Todd Frazier | 3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Scott Rolen | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Joey Votto | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Johnny Cueto | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Chris Heisey | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 29 | 2 | 8 | .038 | .107 | .038 | .146 |
Career:
| PA | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Ludwick | 17 | 1 | 3 | .063 | .118 | .125 | .243 |
| Drew Stubbs | 12 | 3 | 3 | .222 | .417 | .444 | .861 |
| Joey Votto | 11 | 0 | 4 | .273 | .273 | .545 | .818 |
| Jay Bruce | 9 | 0 | 3 | .111 | .111 | .111 | .222 |
| Brandon Phillips | 8 | 1 | 0 | .429 | .500 | .429 | .929 |
| Scott Rolen | 8 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .500 | .750 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 7 | 2 | 1 | .400 | .571 | 1.000 | 1.571 |
| Miguel Cairo | 6 | 0 | 1 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .533 |
| Johnny Cueto | 5 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Chris Heisey | 5 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Zack Cozart | 4 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Todd Frazier | 3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Mat Latos | 3 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Wilson Valdez | 3 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 |
| Mike Leake | 2 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Homer Bailey | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Xavier Paul | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 105 | 8 | 24 | .170 | .243 | .287 | .530 |