The Red Report 2020 - Joey Votto

The expectations are different for the club’s most tenured player.

By Derek Grimes@SunnyD1988 Feb 17, 2020, 8:00am EST

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Fast Facts

First baseman on the field, first in your heart
36 years old
Canadian Prime Minister*
Bats left, throws right
Can absolutely dunk, natch.
Has carried this team for a decade.

Organizational History

Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in 2nd round (44th overall) out of Richview Collegiate Institute in Toronto, Canada in 2002.
Made his MLB debut Sept. 4, 2007.
Signed largest contract in Reds history when he agreed to a 10-year, $225 million extension in 2012.

Career Stats

Standard Batting
Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2007	23	CIN	NL	24	89	84	11	27	7	0	4	17	1	0	5	15	.321	.360	.548	.907	127	46	0	0	0	1	3/7
2008	24	CIN	NL	151	589	526	69	156	32	3	24	84	7	5	59	102	.297	.368	.506	.874	125	266	7	2	2	9	*3	RoY-2
2009	25	CIN	NL	131	544	469	82	151	38	1	25	84	4	1	70	106	.322	.414	.567	.981	156	266	8	4	1	10	*3	MVP-22
2010	26	CIN	NL	150	648	547	106	177	36	2	37	113	16	5	91	125	.324	*.424*	.600	1.024	171	328	11	7	3	8	*3	AS,MVP-1
2011	27	CIN	NL	161	719	599	101	185	40	3	29	103	8	6	110	129	.309	.416	.531	.947	155	318	20	4	6	15	*3	AS,MVP-6,GG
2012	28	CIN	NL	111	475	374	59	126	44	0	14	56	5	3	94	85	.337	*.474*	.567	1.041	177	212	8	5	2	18	*3	AS,MVP-14
2013	29	CIN	NL	*162*	*726*	581	101	177	30	3	24	73	6	3	*135*	138	.305	.435	.491	.926	156	285	15	4	6	19	*3	AS,MVP-6
2014	30	CIN	NL	62	272	220	32	56	16	0	6	23	1	1	47	49	.255	.390	.409	.799	125	90	5	3	2	2	3
2015	31	CIN	NL	158	695	545	95	171	33	2	29	80	11	3	*143*	135	.314	.459	.541	1.000	174	295	11	5	2	15	*3	MVP-3
2016	32	CIN	NL	158	677	556	101	181	34	2	29	97	8	1	108	120	.326	.434	.550	.985	160	306	16	5	8	15	*3/D	MVP-7
2017	33	CIN	NL	*162*	707	559	106	179	34	1	36	100	5	1	*134*	83	.320	*.454*	.578	1.032	167	323	16	8	6	20	*3	AS,MVP-2
2018	34	CIN	NL	145	623	503	67	143	28	2	12	67	2	0	108	101	.284	.417	.419	.837	126	211	15	9	3	6	*3/D	AS
2019	35	CIN	NL	142	608	525	79	137	32	1	15	47	5	0	76	123	.261	.357	.411	.768	98	216	14	4	3	2	*3/D7
13 Yrs				1717	7372	6088	1009	1866	404	20	284	944	79	29	1180	1311	.307	.421	.519	.941	150	3162	146	60	44	140
162 Game Avg.				162	696	574	95	176	38	2	27	89	7	3	111	124	.307	.421	.519	.941	150	298	14	6	4	13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/14/2020.

Scouting Report

Source: FanGraphs

Ken Gif-y Jr.

Projections

Outlook

It is so incredibly weird to think about the Cincinnati Reds offense and not automatically jump to the name “Joey Votto” when deciding who the most important player is. For the last decade, when healthy, Votto was by far (and sometimes far and away) the best player. He was the engine that made everything else go, a perennial MVP candidate, or at least a guy who could’ve been or should’ve been in the conversation if only the team around him could win more games.

From 2010 through 2017, Votto led the Reds in bWAR in every season but 2014, when he missed 100 games due to injury. Even in 2012, where he missed around 50 games to a knee injury, Votto outpaced the other closest Reds position player (Brandon Phillips) by 2 bWAR. In a “down” 2018 season, he was third in the ranking (3.5), and close to first (Scooter Gennett) than fifth (Jose Peraza).

He didn’t bounce back in a way we all expected he might in 2019. And, as the “Get the Pitching” offseason of 2019 has transitioned to “Get the Hitting 2020”, the offense seems to be flush with potentially potent bats.

These don’t have to be, and probably aren’t, Joey Votto’s Reds anymore.

In practice, that statement has probably been true for at least a season now. Eugenio Suarez has blossomed into one of the game’s best players over the last two seasons, and was easily the best offensive player on the team in 2019. Even if the Reds hadn’t brought in several offensive pieces for the 2020 season, it was more likely than not the burden of the Reds offense would lie on Suarez’s shoulders rather than Votto’s.

Still, the additions of Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, and Shogo Akiyama project to all fill out the questionable offensive voids from 2019, as do the hopefully continued varying ascensions of Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, and Aristides Aquino. For the first time in a decade, the fate of the Reds offense doesn’t begin (and potentially end) with Joey Votto. He doesn’t have to carry the weight of Cincinnati.

None of that is to say that he isn’t vitally important to the team’s ceiling this coming summer. A rejuvenated, bounce back season from the former MVP would potentially put this offense in the elite category. A Joey Votto that is able to reach something like his .400+ OBP peak would make the lineup a horror show for opposing pitchers. And “rejuvenated” may be the important word here; Votto was limited a few different times in the 2019 season with lingering back injuries. Any of us that have made it to and passed that 30+ year old mark should be able to sympathize.

It was more likely than not the back injuries that sapped the power from Votto. His .357 on-base percentage still tied for second on the 2019 club, only a tick lower than Suarez’s team lead. However, his .411 slugging number and 15 home runs left a lot to be desired, especially considering the home run environment that was the 2019 regular season. While seemingly everyone was hitting the ball out of the ballpark at a career rate, Votto posted the worst (non-2014) slugging numbers of his career.

Shirking the nagging back problems can only help. Still, at 36 years old, the man isn’t getting any younger. Father time is undefeated, after all. But that’s kind of the point; the Reds don’t have to rely on Joey Votto to play at an MVP level to make noise this year. Being merely above average raises the floor significantly. Anything more is just gravy for the team, rather than the starting point.