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The Red Report 2018 - Scott Schebler

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Fresh off a 30 dinger season, can he stay healthy for a full 162?

Cincinnati Reds Photo Day Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images

Fast Facts

  • Born on October 6th, 1990 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa
  • First recorded memory was the Cincinnati Reds winning the 1990 World Series (probably)
  • Has never met a mouthguard he would not chomp
  • Attended Des Moines Area Community College, which also produced longtime major leaguer Corey Koskie, as well as other amazingly named minor leaguers such as Dakota Freese, Kevin Kilstofte, and Dalton Leuschke, as well as former 4th round draftee (by the Cincinnati Reds, no less) Brad Brusky
  • Braaaaaad Brusky!

Organizational Information

Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 26th round of the 2010 amateur draft

Signed August 16, 2010

Debut: June 5, 2015 (Age 24.242, 18,505th in MLB history) vs. STL 3 AB, 1 H, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB

Rookie Status: Exceeded rookie limits in 2016

2017 Contract Status: Pre-Arb Eligible

Service Time (01/2018): 1.132, Arb Eligible: 2020, Free Agent: 2023

Transactions

December 16, 2015: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Los Angeles Dodgers with Brandon Dixon (minors) and Jose Peraza to the Cincinnati Reds. The Chicago White Sox sent Micah Johnson, Frankie Montas and Trayce Thompson to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cincinnati Reds sent Toood Frooozier to the Chicago White Sox.

Career Stats

Scouting Report

Schebler vs. RHP and LHP (w/Reds)

Schebler vs. LHP (w/Reds)

Schebler vs. RHP (w/Reds)

Schebler vs. Mouthguards

2018 Projections

Projections courtesy of FanGraphs

Outlook

Look, I’m on board with Schebler having a legitimate chance to bust heads in 2018. I wrote about it after the end of last season, noting the shoulder injury and subsequent pain he played through with awful, awful production during that time.

Playing through pain and with nothing to numb him to it, his production completely cratered, and after he finished the month of July on a horrid 2 for 45 (.051/.178/.154) skid, he finally spoke up about the shoulder issue and hit the DL for nearly three weeks.

And, after returning, he looked similar to the Schebler who’d posted an .858 OPS in 51 games prior to the June 3rd injury, posting an .831 OPS over the season’s final 40 contests. That obviously leads you to wonder what his full-season output would’ve looked like with either better health or by not trying to bull through pain to the detriment of both player and team.

In other words, when he was right last year, he was very right, providing the kind of offensive production that the club became accustomed to seeing back when Jay Bruce was the club’s everyday RF.

I also noted at the time that he wasn’t just a product of GABP, as he mauled pitching in road parks to the tune of a .263/.315/.570 line - with 17 of his 30 dingers coming away from home. If anything, GABP somehow depressed his overall production, as he hit a paltry .198/.298/.387 at home in 2017, which seems almost unfathomable in hindsight given his skillset and production in larger ballparks, and the hope is that the .207 BABIP he had in those home games normalizes significantly.

Schebler figures to lose some playing time to the upcoming four-man OF rotation that now includes Jesse Winker, but perhaps that’ll allow manager Bryan Price to mix and match lineups in ways that actually benefit the 27 year old. There’s also the chance that Schebler enjoys a vintage “27 year old peak” that, say, teammate Scooter Gennett just experienced last year, and the 30 homer season he just posted is merely a platform for what he will provide in his prime.

He has his flaws, to be sure. He’ll get some time in CF, and there are questions as to whether his defensive abilities deserve that. Still, given how elite of an all-around athlete he was in high school and the massive power his angry swing possesses, there’s not a thing about a 40 dinger season from him that I would find surprising in 2018, especially if the MLB balls continue to fly the way they have in recent seasons.