Trade Deadline Odds: Ranking the Reds' Trade Chips

With the All-Star Game now behind us, all signs point to the Reds being open for business. Rumors have abounded in regards to Cincinnati's trade chips, so let's take a look at who could be on the move, with my completely speculative and somewhat arbitrary percentages tacked on for good measure, because everyone loves numbers, right? Not that you need my permission, but feel free to add your two-cents in the comments.

1) Johnny Cueto
Chance: 95%
Potential Suitors: Astros, Royals, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Any Contender

Look, he's probably gone. I guess if the Reds rattle off 10 straight wins coming out of the All-Star break, while the Cards and Pirates and Cubs all lose 10ish then he may stay, but I mean, come on. Bob C can be delusional, but not that delusional. Cueto is a legit ace, is affordable through the end of the year, and would be a killer weapon in the playoffs. He gone.

2) Mike Leake
Chance: 70%
Potential Suitors: Giants, Astros, Yankees Dodgers, Royals, Angels

The Giants, Yankees, and Astros have sent scouts to watch Leake throw, while the Royals are known to have interest. Both LA teams are in the market for pitching, though neither have mentioned Leake specifically. The 2009 first-rounder has been remarkably consistent, posting slightly better than league average stats since skipping the minors altogether. Though the rumors have been quiet recently, at one point an unnamed AL scout said of Leake "there might be more action on him than any pitcher out there," though this was at the end of May. He'd go a long way to shore up the back end of any rotation.

3) Manny Parra
Chance: 65%
Potential Suitors: Twins, Blue Jays, Any contender but the Royals, really

Free agent-to-be, reliable, cheap, and relievers are always a commodity at the deadline. Won't be an exciting trade, but the Reds should get some value from him.

4) Marlon Byrd
Chance: 55%
Potential Suitors: Twins, Mets, Nats, Yankees, Royals, Cubs

Thanks to a DL stint, his vesting option is much less likely to kick in now, which gets a team off the hook for a pricey 2016. Byrd's power and walk rates are both above his career averages, and he's suffered some bad luck with a .266 BABIP to date this season. He's purely a rental, and decidedly non-elite, but he'd certainly be a boost to some underperforming or injury-riddled outfields. Washington is a particularly intriguing destination, in that he could be an excellent fourth OF when their injured stars return, with the added bonus of limiting his PA to guarantee his option doesn't vest.

5) Jay Bruce
Chance: 50%
Potential Suitors: Mets, Royals

I put the chances at 50/50 based on this:

One person familiar with #reds thinking believes there's at least a 50/50 chance Jay Bruce is traded in July.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 10, 2015

...but others have said that Bruce is as likely to be moved as anyone. For what it's worth, Bruce apparently rejected an extension offer more than once last season, and with Devin Mesoraco's potential move to the OF, Bruce may well be on the way out. He's affordable, relatively consistent, and presumably past the knee issues that plagued him last season. He can block trades to the D-Backs, Red Sox, Marlins, Twins, Yankees, A’s, Rays, and Blue Jays, so that's why a few logical landing spots were excluded above.

6) Brayan Pena
Chance: 35%
Potential Suitors: Rays, Angels, White Sox, Pirates, Angels

I love #Nerts. You love #Nerts. We all love all-around good guy #Nerts. But he's a free agent after this year, is having one of the better offensive seasons of his career, and is a catcher. The Reds can use Tucker Barnhart as the starter, and reassess in the offseason once Mesoraco's prognosis becomes a little clearer. Like Parra, he wouldn't bring back a ton, but some value could potentially be had.

7) Aroldis Chapman
Chance: 20%
Potential Suitors: Blue Jays, Twins, Nats, Marlins, Dodgers

While I think it would be wise to shop Chapman now, while he's still controllable for a few years, I'm not confident Bob Castellini feels the same way. Chapman is a spectacle, one of the most exciting players in the game, and he's all but automatic when he pitches. He'd arguably bring back the most of any player on this list, with Jay Bruce being the only one to give him a run for his money...unless something crazy happens, like:

8) Todd Frazier
Chance: 2%
Potential Suitors: ???

Frazier would bring back a fortune. He's having the best year of his career, is on pace to break the Reds' single-season XBH record, is controllable for another 2 years (one of which appears to be a bargain, not including this year), and could reasonably play 1B or a corner OF if blocked at 3B. It'd be a savvy, Rays/A's-esque move to trade Frazier right now, but I really don't see his value being any higher than it is right now.

WILD CARD: Brandon Phillips

I doubt any teams would trade for Dat Dude alone, but there's a chance the Reds could include him in a deal to shed some salary, especially with Eugenio Suarez looking like he could stick in the bigs, and the optimism surrounding Zack Cozart's pre-injury performance. He's owed $27M over the next two years, plus whatever's left on his $12M salary for this season, so there wouldn't be a ton of value coming back beyond salary relief. But who knows?