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Looking back at my dumb predictions

What a dumb season.

I guess this is going to be a thing now, apparently. I really don't want to look back at anything about this season, much less my ill-conceived prognostications. But BKorporate is demanding pageclicks, so here this goes.

Sam LeCure will not make the All-Star team

Bleh. I got this right in letter, but certainly not in spirit. My prediction was that Suddenly Sam was going to be one of the top relievers in the National League but would be passed over for the All-Star nod due to his being merely a middle reliever.

Instead, he had a bad season, perhaps his worst since his rookie year. His strikeout rate dipped, his home run rate doubled, and his WHIP climbed to gastronomical levels. Perhaps the most 2014 statistic of the Reds 2014 season is Sam LeCure's bWAR:


Negative zero. Negative zero. If 2014 had a song, it would be titled Negative Zero and it would be performed by the Smashing Pumpkins. Adore-era Smashing Pumpkins.

The starting left fielder for the Reds on October 1 is not on the roster right now

At the time I wrote that, "now" was the middle of February. Look at me. So optimistic then. And that haircut! Ahhhh, what a kid I was.

I guess I was correct in predicting that Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey would have bad seasons, but I was grotesquely wrong in completely ignoring Skip Schumaker and the Reds' obstinence. And also implying that the Reds would be playing baseball on October 1.

Billy Hamilton will make the All-Star team

This one I ain't so awful sore about. Through the All-Star break, Billy made himself a legit case for inclusion on the team. He hit .285/.319/.423 with 38 steals and some dope defense in CF. He put up a good enough half season, but it didn't happen.

I was strangely specific with this prediction though, going much farther than just predicting an All-Star selection. I said:

Kid's gonna run wild, swiping 16 bases in April. He is going to come out of the gate smokin' and get a lot of buzz and such, and he'll be selected to the All-Star team because it will be so much fun to watch him go. He'll end the season with a line that won't surprise us, but these first few months are going to be electric.

This was true and not true. He stole only 11 bases in April, getting caught five times. But he did perform much better in the first half than the second half, so I kinda got that part right. Hooray, I guess.

Joey Votto will reach base more than half the time


The Reds will not make it to the World Series

I hate me way more than you hate me. Trust me.