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How Dumb I Was

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I predicted some dumb stuff

Alfredo is trying not to act jealous, but he though Johnny was HIS best friend
Alfredo is trying not to act jealous, but he though Johnny was HIS best friend
Michael Hickey

Wick was man enough to own up to his dumb predictions, which unfortunately reminded everyone that the mods all made dumb predictions and now we have to own up to them.  Good going, Wick.  I made some dumb predictions myself, which we can all laugh at and deride for our current amusement.

Dumb Prediction #1: Bryan Price will win Manager of the Year

Oy.  I was such a big fan of retaining Price.  I thought he'd be new-school.  He talked a great game to that effect, plus he was a pitching witch which meant he had to be smart about baseball and stuff.  But this prediction turned out to be mega dumb.  First of all, the Reds suck, so Price won't be anywhere near the running.  Second of all, Price has been basically more of the same, conventional wisdom, paint-by manage-by-number tactician we grew accustomed to with Dusty Baker.  His lineups were smarter and more inventive, you say!  But his head-in-the-sand baserunning philosophy was a step back.  We shifted more, showing a reception to analytics!  Cool, but bullpen roles were more rigid than ever.  Also, final nail in the coffin: Skip Schumaker played in more than half of Reds games this year, even though he was injured and Bryan may have even known about it.  And if he didn't know the performance should have told him.

I wanted (and still do want!) to like you, Bryan.  Growing pains should have been expected, even.  But this prediction turned out way, way wrong.

Dumb Prediction #2: Todd Frazier will make the All-Star team

Hey, this was actually a solid prediction, though I perhaps didn't step out on too shaky of a limb when making it.  He was definitely more deserving than Aramis Ramirez to start the game.  He was better than David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Ryan Zimmerman, Chase Headley...and every other NL 3B at the ASB, with only Anthony Rendon as a real competitor.  That's some quality depth of competition.  And then Todd did make the All-Star team.  Good job, Todd.

Dumb Prediction #3: The Cubs will be .500 or better

Dumb.  Never bet on the Cubs.  Until next year, maybe, or very, very soon afterward.  Mr. Shinkle astutely made this observation in response to my dumb prediction, so he's not as dumb as I am.  In my defense, the Cubs had a .479 Pythagorean record through June, before they traded away some of their best assets and brought up the kids.  Still, the Cubs are (probably, hopefully) going to finish the year behind the lowly Reds, with some win total in the low-70s.  That's not very close to .500.

Dumb Prediction #4: The Pirates will be .500 or worse

Ugh.  Stupid Pirates continue to play over their stupid heads.  How the heck does Edinson Volquez go out and have the season he just had!?  I could go on that like for their whole freaking roster, but in the end it would be excuses to cover up my dumbness.  They could collapse in the final week and end up only 3 or 4 games over .500, but I was wrong.  They have a shot to grab a second wildcard and make the postseason.  Maybe if the Reds hadn't sucked, this prediction wouldn't look as dumb.  More excuses...it's all I have.

Dumb Prediction #5: A Reds pitcher will set the all-time Reds record for Cy Young support

This prediction was very smart.  I mean, I didn't say which one, which was dumb, but Johnny Cueto, if there is any justice in this world, will be uncontested as the #2 finisher in Cy Young voting this year, and only 2nd because Clayton Kershaw is doing things that have never ever ever ever been done before, basically.  In any other year, Johnny would likely take home the award for the first time in Reds history.

Dumb prediction #6: Chris Heisey will slash .280/.320/.460, hit 20 HR, steal 10 bases, and be worth over 3 WAR in 110 games played, and be worth more than BP this year.

Umm, I love Chris Heisey.  This was stupidity born of passion; can we not all relate?  If he steals one more base, he'll get 10, and 110 games played wasn't a terrible guess.  That slash line was stoopy domb, though.  Brandon Phillips recently snuck past Heisey in fWAR, and man, that was looking solid for a minute too.  BP got 200 more PAs though, and Heisey loses out completely on playing time and position adjustment.  bWAR says I am slightly more of an idiot.

Ridicule me if you must.  My predictions were only every bit as stupid as I warned you they were at the moment I made them, though.  I blame it on 2014.