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Reds at Brewers Game 3: Preview and Predictions

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Gimme Something Good.
Gimme Something Good.
John Konstantaras

CCincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Miller Park

Mike Leake vs. Matt Garza


The Reds, in a last ditch effort to save face in the 2014 season, are telling their fans, their sportswriters, and their competition, "not so fast," in writing them off. This resurgence can likely be attributed to Skip Schumaker being shut down newly found offensive production aided by some late-season call ups. After taking a series against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Redlegs are showing signs of life against the Milwaukee Brewers as well. Cincinnati will look to take its second series in as many this afternoon as they square off against Matt Garza and the Brewers.

The Brewers, on the other hand, will look to win the series on the back of Matt Garza. Garza is making his third start since returning from the disabled list after missing a month of action. Since then, he has yet to go beyond four innings in a start. Prior to his disabled list stint, the Reds have seen Garza twice in 2014. In two games, the Reds, as a whole, have the very unsurprising splits of .164/.203/.200. In 16 innings against the Reds, Garza has struck out 10 while walking only three en route to an ERA of 0.56. I guess if we are in search of a silver lining, Jay Bruce has a career OPS of 1.164 in 23 plate appearances against Garza while Brandon Phillips has 6 hits in 20 career at bats.

Mike Leake will attempt to have his 11-11 record creep above .500 while leading the Reds closer to their own mark of mediocrity. Leake will be making his third start against Milwaukee this season. In the previous 3 outings against the Brew Crew, Leake has compiled a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.75. In fact, Leake's WHIP against the Brewers is an astoundingly high 1.684 while he is only averaging 5.7 strikeouts per 9. These splits are above his season numbers of 3.62, 1.238 and 6.8, respectively. Leake may want to be particularly careful with Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez. Lucroy is hitting .391 against Leake in 23 at bats while Gomez has an OPS of .951 in 18 plate appearances.

The Reds will attempt to avoid the fate that befell the Cubs yesterday afternoon with their well-deserved elimination from playoff contention. However, being 11 games out with 13 to play, the Reds may simply be playing for pride and a greater chance of a worse draft pick. Nonetheless, I'll never argue against winning baseball games. Go Reds!

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link.

Bullpen Log

Reliever 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 5 day totals
Aroldis Chapman 0.1, 11p 1.0, 12p 1.0, 18p

2.1 IP, 41 pitches
Carlos Contreras

0.0 IP, 0 pitches
Sam LeCure
0.2, 13p

2.0, 17p 2.2 IP, 30 pitches
Jumbo Diaz 1.0, 32p

0.1, 14p 1.0, 15p

2.1 IP, 61 pitches

Manny Parra 1.0, 12p

1.0 IP, 12 pitches
Pedro Villarreal

1.0, 7p
1.0 IP, 7 pitches
Logan Ondrusek

1.0, 22p
1.0 IP, 22 pitches
Daniel Corcino

6.0, 79p
6.0 IP, 79 pitches
Ryan Dennick
0.1, 8p

0.1 IP, 8 pitches
J.J. Hoover 0.2, 30p

0.2 IP, 30 pitches
David Holmberg

6.0, 87p 6.0 IP, 87 pitches