Billy Hamilton is neither Rickey Henderson nor Vince Coleman. Are those the only two options?

Billy Hamilton, by nearly all imaginable standards, is in the midst of a successful 2014 campaign.  He is also on course to join a fairly exclusive club: Hamilton will be either the 31^st or 32^nd player since the end of the Deadball Era to record a 50+ stolen base season in his age-24 season or younger (Jose Altuve is also on pace to join this rather arbitrary group this year, and will likely beat Hamilton to the 50 steal mark).  Some of these young and fast players enjoyed multiple such seasons; there have been 49 total player seasons meeting these criteria prior to 2014.  Cesar Cedeno, Rickey Henderson, and Tim Raines, for instance, all exceeded 50 SB four different times prior to the end of their respective age-24 seasons.

It has not been a surprise, of course, that Hamilton has stolen a lot of bases.  He is known, first and foremost, for his superlative speed.  What has been surprising has been how good of a season Hamilton is having.  He's the front-runner to win the NL Rookie of the Year award, and has been one of the few bright spots in a mostly disappointing season.

While it is premature to engage in a post-mortem review of Hamilton's rookie year, I'm struck by how little resemblance his numbers bear to either of the most common comparisons given to Hamilton in the minors; Billy Hamilton is certainly not Rickey Henderson, nor is he Vince Coleman.  This article desires to dig a bit deeper past the most famous speedsters of the 80's, in hopes of creating a more well-rounded comparison set for Hamilton.

Observation #1: The 1980's were indeed the peak decade for young speedsters, but not by as large a margin as you would normally think.

20s	30s	40s	50s	60s	70s	80s	90s	00s
0	1	0	0	2	12	17	7	10

The above table shows the number of pre-age-25 50+ SB seasons in MLB since 1920.  This rather arbitrary breakout actually obscures the real peak for such seasons: between 1977 and 1986 there were 21 instances recorded.  Nonetheless, I found it interesting that the post-millenium decade was virtually indistinguishable from the swingin' seventies, at least in one regard.  Hamilton and Altuve, for what it's worth, will be the first players meeting the stated criteria in this present decade.

Observation #2: It was never fair to put Billy Hamilton in the Henderson/Coleman category.  Hamilton is currently on pace to steal 64 bases this year.  A fine and respectable amount that will land Billy firmly in the MLB leaderboard for the season.  Also, this would represent a top 20 effort in terms of the combination of criteria established at the top.  Not bad.  Here, by way of comparison, are the top 5 entries in the post-deadball, pre-age-25 list:

Player	Age	SB	Year
Rickey Henderson	23	130	1982
Vince Coleman	23	110	1985
Rickey Henderson	24	108	1983
Vince Coleman	24	107	1986
Rickey Henderson	21	100	1980

These guys lapped the field.  Only one other player even reached 90 SB by age 24 and just two more got to 80.  The media's comparisons were rather shallow, given that no one has matched the numbers above in 30 years.  As a side note, it's worth pointing out that Henderson lost a sizable chunk of the 1981 season, squarely within his peak running years, due to the player strike that year.  Also worth pointing out despite its irrelevancy to this particular article is that the Cincinnati Reds had the best record in baseball in 1981 but did not advance to the postseason.  Never Forget.

Observation #3: There were some really good seasons represented on this list, and some really bad ones.  It's here where we can most clearly see the Henderson/Coleman dichotomy.  In 1983, Rickey Henderson stole 108 bases, while posting an OPS+ of 139.  Three years later, Coleman nearly matched the stolen base total, with 107, but only managed a 62 OPS+.  There's an ocean of value between the two.  bWAR scores the two seasons at 6.9 and 1.2, respectively.

Cesar Cedeno, incidentally, was on an accelerated path to the Hall of Fame.  In 1971 and '72, at the ages of 21 and 22, Cedeno stole 55 and 56 bases, while playing centerfield and hitting for 162 and 152 OPS+ marks.  I've mentally tried to contextualize this as hitting like normal-Votto and running like Hamilton.  All while being as young as, say, Phil Ervin.

Hamilton's at a 102 OPS+ this year, which puts him: a) in the middle of the pack of these swipe-happy seasons; and b) in the company of some pretty interesting hitters:

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	OPS+
24	Juan Samuel	23	72	1984	2B	107
25	Roger Cedeno	24	66	1999	RF	107
26	Willie Wilson	23	83	1979	LF	106
27	Carl Crawford	22	59	2004	LF	105
28	Jose Reyes	24	78	2007	SS	102
29	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	102
30	Juan Samuel	24	53	1985	2B	102
31	Bert Campaneris	23	51	1965	SS	102
32	Tim Raines	22	78	1982	LF	101
33	Pat Listach	24	54	1992	SS	99
34	Bert Campaneris	24	52	1966	SS	98
35	George Case	23	51	1939	CF	98
36	Luis Castillo	23	50	1999	2B	98

Observation #4: Hamilton goes for the extra base a lot.  I think one of the most surprising things to me is that the stolen base attempt rate was quite a bit lower than expected.  My thought was that 50 stolen bases means a non-trivial number of unsuccessful attempts as well, double digits at least, and that the number of attempts over opportunities must be pretty high for a player to reach half a hundred.

Fortunately, there's a simple tool by which to quantify this: SBO% (Stolen base opportunity percentage) is calculated as the sum of stolen bases and times caught stealing divided by the sum of singles and walks.  There are a couple of really broad assumptions included here...one, that players never steal third base, and two, that players always have a clear path to second whenever they reach first.  While neither assumption is true, the metric allows for rudimentary comparisons that give a rough picture of how aggressive a player is on the basepaths.

For these 50 player-seasons of 50+ stolen bases, the median percentage for SBO% is below 50%.  Roberto Alomar, in 1991, stole 53 bases with an SBO% as low as 35%, which is perhaps shorthand for saying he not only picked his spots, but that he had many, many spots to pick from.  Here's the top ten in SBO%, from our list:

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	SBO%
1	Miguel Dilone	23	50	1978	LF	100
2	Rickey Henderson	23	130	1982	LF	78
3	Tim Raines	21	71	1981	LF	71
4	Vince Coleman	23	110	1985	LF	71
5	Vince Coleman	24	107	1986	LF	68
6	Eric Davis	24	80	1986	LF	66
7	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	65
8	Marquis Grissom	24	76	1991	CF	64
9	Rickey Henderson	24	108	1983	LF	60
10	Juan Samuel	23	72	1984	2B	58

Hamilton takes off for the extra bases roughly two-thirds of the time.  That seems to jive with my casually observed perception.

That guy at the top of the list...Dilone.  It's surprising to me every time I come across an unfamiliar name of a player who not only played during my lifetime, but played for a decade.  I had never heard of Miguel Dilone prior to this week, or if I had, I'd already resolved to forget about him.  His 1978 season is worth remembering, however:  First off, he played in 135 games, but only amassed 292 plate appearances, presumably signaling a large number of pinch-running assignments.  When he did hit, the results were not good.  He hit .229, with just 9 of his 59 hits going for extra bases.  Only 23 walks as well, leading to a slash line of .229/.294/.271.  65 OPS+.  Despite his obvious speed, he led the league in times caught stealing that year, failing on 23 of his 73 attempts.  Anyways, 73 attempts on 50 singles plus 23 walks leads to a "perfect" score on the SBO% front.  Impressiveish.  Dilone is, incidentally, the only player on our list with a negative WAR on the year.

Observation #5: For all the speed represented on this list, there weren't many strong defensive seasons turned in by this group.  Billy will end the year with a dWAR greater than 1, something that hasn't happened often in this set:

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	dWAR
1	Willie Wilson	24	79	1980	LF	2.2
2	Rickey Henderson	22	56	1981	LF	2.0
3	Willie Wilson	23	83	1979	LF	1.9
4	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	1.8
5	Jose Reyes	24	78	2007	SS	1.8
6	Jose Reyes	23	64	2006	SS	1.6
7	Omar Moreno	24	53	1977	CF	1.5
8	Rickey Henderson	21	100	1980	LF	1.3
9	Carl Crawford	22	59	2004	LF	1.1
10	Julio Cruz	23	59	1978	2B	1.1
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	24	50	2008	CF	1.0

I don't have much to add, other than I would have suspected that speed = range = defensive value.  There were twice as many players who recorded a negative dWAR as those who reached at least +1 dWAR.

Observation #6: To the extent you believe the underlying metric, Billy Hamilton does not add much value with his baserunning, as recorded by the "Rbaser" value.  In fact, he projects to add 3 runs over an average player with his baserunning this year.  Presumably, this is a function of the number of times he's been thrown out stealing, as the metric doesn't appear to take into account things like tagging up from third on a pop up to the pitcher or whatever.  Whatever.

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	Rbaser
39	Rickey Henderson	22	56	1981	LF	3
40	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	3
41	George Case	23	51	1939	CF	3
42	Hanley Ramirez	23	51	2007	SS	3
43	Shannon Stewart	24	51	1998	LF	2
44	Juan Samuel	24	53	1985	2B	2
45	Steve Sax	23	56	1983	2B	2
46	Gerald Young	23	65	1988	CF	2
47	Bert Campaneris	23	51	1965	SS	2
48	Bobby Tolan	24	57	1970	CF	1
49	John Cangelosi	23	50	1986	CF	1
50	Miguel Dilone	23	50	1978	LF	0

Observation #7: Within this context of fast, young players, Billy Hamilton is almost perfectly average in terms of overall value.  The best season ever in this group was Rickey Henderson, 1980 (8.8 bWAR).  The worst was Dilone, as referenced above.  Hamilton is on pace to finish 25^th out of the group of 50, and his extrapolated WAR of 4.2 tracks fairly closely with the mean average of 4.0.  I suppose that average can carry a negative connotation in this day and age in which everyone is a very special snowflake, but this is a pretty talented group of players, by and large.

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	WAR
19	Carl Crawford	24	58	2006	LF	4.5
20	Luis Castillo	24	62	2000	2B	4.5
21	Roberto Alomar	23	53	1991	2B	4.5
22	Pat Listach	24	54	1992	SS	4.4
23	Cesar Cedeno	24	50	1975	CF	4.4
24	Hanley Ramirez	23	51	2007	SS	4.3
25	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	4.2
26	Bert Campaneris	24	52	1966	SS	3.6
27	Tim Raines	21	71	1981	LF	3.5
28	Shannon Stewart	24	51	1998	LF	3.4
29	Jacoby Ellsbury	24	50	2008	CF	3.0
30	Juan Samuel	24	53	1985	2B	3.0

Observation #8: Billy Hamilton needs to learn how to draw a walk.  The all-time gold standard of leadoff hitting (Henderson) routinely had walk rates (walks divided by PA) above 16%.  The next best thing to Henderson (Raines) was in the 10%-12% ballpark.  Hamilton is at 4%.  This needs to be Priority One this winter, since a normal walk rate means an extra 30-40 times on base per season, which means an extra 25 or so SB, which should be worth an extra 1-2 wins.  Easy, Peasy.

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	BB%
40	Marquis Grissom	24	76	1991	CF	5.7
41	Carl Crawford	24	58	2006	LF	5.7
42	Carl Crawford	22	59	2004	LF	5.2
43	Juan Samuel	24	53	1985	2B	4.7
44	Willie Wilson	23	83	1979	LF	4.4
45	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	4.4
46	Bert Campaneris	24	52	1966	SS	4.1
47	Carl Crawford	21	55	2003	LF	3.9
48	Willie Wilson	24	79	1980	LF	3.8
49	Juan Samuel	23	72	1984	2B	3.8
50	Jose Reyes	22	60	2005	SS	3.7

Incidentally, in walking through this exercise, the name that keeps popping up as a seemingly appropriate comp for Hamilton is Willie Wilson.  Great speed, amazing defense, double and triple power, terrible walk rate.  Wilson totaled 46 bWAR in his career, which puts him in the Hall of Very Good.  This potentially could have been a better career; Wilson was involved in a cocaine-related arrest and scandal at the peak of his career.  We don't really know if the drug was a persistent or negative influence on Wilson's playing days, but perhaps we can safely assume it wasn't an asset.  Nonetheless, I'd be more than happy to sign up for a 40-50 WAR career from Hamilton.  I'd be even happier to see his walk rate improve enough to blow past that number.

Observation #9: Billy Hamilton is demonstrating an impressive amount of power for a speedster.  I suppose that's probably self-evident; he already has more home runs this year than I expected for his entire career.  Hamilton's ISO (Slugging percentage minus batting average) is higher than any of Rickey Henderson's at the same age range, however, and I definitely did not expect that.

Rank	Player	Age	SB	Year	Pos	ISO
12	Carl Crawford	22	59	2004	LF	154
13	Cesar Cedeno	24	50	1975	CF	152
14	Amos Otis	24	52	1971	CF	142
15	Jose Reyes	24	78	2007	SS	141
16	Roberto Alomar	23	53	1991	2B	141
17	Billy Hamilton	23	64	2014	CF	140
18	Shannon Stewart	24	51	1998	LF	138
19	Tim Raines	21	71	1981	LF	134
20	Tim Raines	23	90	1983	LF	131
21	Rickey Henderson	24	108	1983	LF	129
22	Tim Raines	24	75	1984	CF	128
23	Rickey Henderson	22	56	1981	LF	118

Some pretty good names on that list.

Observation #10: Eric Davis was a bad motherflipper.

1986.  Age 24.  First full time season in the bigs.  27 HR and 80 SB in just 132 games played.  88% success rate on stolen bases.  14% walk rate.  ISO of two hundred forty six (!).  OPS+ of 143.

One day, I'd like to get a glimpse of the alternate universe in which Eric Keith Davis stayed healthy.