Updating the Top 100: Johnny Cueto

93. Johnny Cueto

After his second career year in just three seasons, it may be time to admit that Johnny Cueto is pretty good. Even better, his most recent career year (2014) put his first career year (2012) to shame:

Cueto is pretty close to unhittable right now.  Hits allowed per nine innings is not a metric that gets a whole lot of airtime these days (or ever), but it's a fun one to look at because Cueto leads the league in it.  "Leads the league" is a bit misleading though.  For one, Cueto's H/9 rate is a microscopic 6.2.  For another, you've got Cueto and Clayton Kershaw (6.3 H/9), and then way, way down...everyone else (next closest: 7.2).

Perusing Cueto's rate stats, they tell of a story in which a really good pitcher went light speed.  Specifically, a pitcher who had always struck out 6 or 7 batters per nine innings is now up to 9, while maintaining his control, surrendering less hits, and throwing way more innings than ever before.  Wha happen?

Cueto is a rare, legitimate six-pitch pitcher, but one of those pitches is essentially brand new:

The cutter has become a favorite pitch, while Cueto has surged forward in effectiveness.  Paradoxically, it's not that great a pitch: batters hit about .215 against Cueto's cutter, which sounds pretty good until you realize that hitters collectively hit less than .200 against Cueto in 2014.

It turns out that Cueto's cutter is the perfect complement to his changeup, which is now a weapon that must be registered in Connecticut, New York, and Illinois before being operationalized.  Check it:

That's a correlation coefficient of -91%.  Perhaps it's a coincidence, but the data suggests that the more that Johnny Cueto throws his cutter, the better his changeup gets.

What now?  As we've seen, a Johnny Cueto who is healthy and knows how to maximize his pitch effectiveness is a wonderfully valuable asset.  Can he repeat it?  As always, there's very little predictability with pitchers.  Since his breakout year of 2011, Cueto hasn't had a bad year, per se, but he's had a couple disappointing ones, in that they didn't last too terribly long.  If he can break the trend of not posting back-to-back full seasons, that will go a long way towards cementing a bounce-back year for the Home Team.

The easiest predictions have to do with money.  The Reds hold a $10 million option for Cueto's services in 2015.  They will exercise this option 2 to 3 seconds after being officially allowed to do so.  Additionally, given how cheap this option is relative to Cueto's value, we can probably expect a lot of noise this year, presumably from Cueto's agents, about the likelihood of a contract extension.  If you're thinking about what these numbers might look like, consider: the highest paid player in the National League this past season was Zack Greinke, who commanded a 6 year, $159 million contract after the 2012 season.  At that point in his career, Greinke had 91 wins, nearly 1500 innings logged, and an ERA+ of 114.  At the end of next season, Cueto will be a year older than Greinke was at the time of his free agency signing, but will have fewer innings on his arm and better rate stats.  Add in a couple years worth of inflation, and you can get a feel for expectations.  I would imagine that Cueto gets fewer years, but more dollars per year.  If his 2015 season is quality, it's not out of the realm that a team makes him a $30 million/year player.  It is difficult to imagine that team being the Reds.

In seven seasons with the Reds, Johnny Cueto has a record of 85-57, an ERA of 3.27 (ERA+ of 123), and has 995 strikeouts in 1,208 innings.  He has risen from #146 on the all-time list to #93.  As a result of this move, catcher Heinie Peitz (1896 - 1904) has dropped out of the top 100.