Updating the Top 100: Todd Frazier

Point Pleasant, New Jersey is a shore town.  So, too, is Campechuela, Cuba, but the similarities end there.  29 years ago, Todd Frazier was born in one of the two towns and Yoenis Cespedes the other.  Despite playing different positions and in different leagues, the two players' career lines are remarkably similar:

The primary differences, best as I can tell, are three-fold.  One, Frazier plays a more difficult defensive position, and with more skill, than Cespedes.  Two, Frazier slowly seeped into our collective consciousness, first as a late first round draft pick from Rutgers, then as a good-but-not-great prospect, then as Scott Rolen's caddy, then as a starter who had his moments but not enough or with proper consistency, then as an emergent all-star.  Cespedes, of course, burst on to the scene straight outta Cuba, with a wild hype video and fuzzy past packed in his suitcase.  As another point of similarity, by the way, Cespedes also appeared in his first all-star game in 2014.  The third difference is in the player's W-2 forms.  Cespedes has made over $25 million in his short major league career; Frazier has earned less than one-tenth of that.

Yoenis Cespedes's Q rating was on the rise in 2014.  Not only did he win the Home Run Derby (beating out Frazier, natch), but he was also part of a late-July blockbuster trade, shipping east to Boston from Oakland, thereby falling out of the playoff picture overnight.  Prior to the trade, I had not spent any significant amounts of time thinking about Cespedes, but one of the pervasive threads of commentary surrounding the trade was that the Cuban outfielder was "overrated" and "already in his decline phase".  These are undoubtedly subjective proclamations, but I do remember being surprised to learn that Cespedes was as old as he is.

And so it is with Todd Frazier, I suppose.  To me, he feels like a younger player, but I can perhaps chalk that impression up to two data points: one, I mark the beginning of the current Reds era with the 2010 season, and Frazier was not involved with that season at all, whereas several other of his teammates were.  Secondly, and relatedly, Jay Bruce has been around forever but was born 14 months after Frazier was.  I have trouble reconciling these things in my head.

I have trouble getting a handle on Frazier's future value, in all honesty.  He's very obviously been valuable to this point, so add another tally mark to the folks responsible for scouting and drafting.  Frazier gives the impression of still being a work in progress: I made the comment earlier in the year that my supposition is that Frazier is the most naturally talented player on the team, in that his oft-painful approach at the plate belies his ultimate production.  Perhaps he is a late bloomer, prone to ongoing improvement into his 30s.  On the other hand, the smart bet is always on regression and aging curves.  Similar to Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier is the team's primary and backup plan at his position for the foreseeable future.  The good news, regardless of your feelings on Frazier's projectability, is that he is eminently affordable.  There is thoroughly no need to make him a $25 million man prematurely, despite Frazier being one of the most likeable Reds players of my lifetime.

With Cincinnati since 2011, Todd Frazier owns statistics which are literally identical to the ones posted in the table above.  His rank on the all-time list jumps from #242 to #125, and he debuts at #12 on the list of franchise's greatest third basemen, displacing Ray Knight.