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The 2014 has come to an end for our Redlegs, which means it's time to revisit our preseason predictions. Oh, how naive we were.
We'll go through each category and see how we did, and then award the prize to who did the best overall.
WINS
Range of guesses: 79-162
Median guess: 90.5
Most popular guess: 93
Actual: 76
This is a pretty good indicator of how the rest of this is about to go. Reds fans were expecting a winner, with most expecting a 90+ win season. The point for this went to JasperRed, who was the only one who predicted a losing season (and the only one to correctly predict that the Reds would have more runs against than runs for).
DIVISION STANDING
Range of guesses: 1st-4th
Median guess: 2nd
Most popular guess: 2nd
Actual: 4th
Yuck. Despite most RRs predicting a 90-win season, expectations were high for the rest of the division as well, with seemingly most of us figuring the Reds would take a wild card spot. Lord Pork Sword was the only one to guess that the team would finish 4th, but also guessed that they'd win 82 games. The NL Central was competitive all year, but not as tough as previously thought.
RUNS SCORED
Range of guesses: 604-1233
Median guess: 700.5
Most popular guess: 715
Actual: 595
Woof. Nobody expected the offense to be this bad. Our expectations would have put the Reds as the 3rd best offense in the NL, as opposed to the 3rd worst that they had. Red Menace got the point with the lowest guess.
RUNS AGAINST
Range of guesses: 14-700
Median guess: 600
Most popular guess: 610
Actual: 612
We did really well here, actually. Everyone expected the Reds pitching to be good, and they were good, albeit in a smaller run environment than many of us probably thought. Mr. Redlegs Posse, joshuar, and muffins each score a point here, with a prediction 2 runs off of the actual.
AVERAGE LEADER
Votto: 38 guesses
Actual: Frazier/Mesoraco (.273)
Every single one of you guessed Joey Votto. I'm not sure that anyone could have predicted that Votto would be a non-qualifier for rate stats, and that his stats wouldn't even be that great (he finished at .255).
OBP LEADER
Votto: 38 guesses
Actual: Mesoraco (.359)
Man, how good was Devin Mesoraco this year? Good enough that nobody predicted that he'd run away with a bunch of the hitting categories.
SLG LEADER
Bruce: 25 guesses
Votto: 13 guesses
Actual: Mesoraco (.534)
Injuries, man. Mes wins again.
DOUBLES LEADER
Votto: 24 guesses
Bruce: 12 guesses
Hamilton: 2 guesses
Actual: Mesoraco/Phillips/Hamilton (25)
Hey, a hit! 2 correctly guessed that B-Ham would lead the team in homers, although the closest guess was twice as many doubles as he actually had. Lost and Found gets two points, Mr. Redlegs Posse scores one.
HOMERS LEADER
Bruce: 37 guesses
Votto: 1 guess
Actual: Frazier (29)
Todd Frazier also got no love in the preseason, before putting the offense on his back before the All-Star break. Most guessed Bruce.
STOLEN BASE LEADER
Hamilton: 38 guesses
Actual: Hamilton (56)
Everyone guessed Hamilton, so everyone got a point here. Most guesses were way high, though, with many predicting him to steal over 100 bases. btcoop got 2 points for guessing 60, 4 off of the actual total.
WINS LEADER
Bailey: 19 guesses
Latos: 11 guesses
Cueto: 8 guesses
Actual: Cueto (20)
This is the beginning of the section where we should have given Johnny Cueto more credit than we did. There were still a handful who correctly predicted that Cueto would stay dominant, with Shinkle hitting it on the nose with 20 wins.
SAVES LEADER
Chapman: 34 guesses
Hoover: 4 guesses
Actual: Chapman (36)
Most of you nailed this in the 25-40 save range, with crolfer hitting it exactly. Those Hoover guesses look ridiculous now, but remember that Chapman was hurt at prediction time and that Hoover was scheduled to get most of the calls then.
ERA LEADER (STARTER)
Latos: 18 guesses
Cueto: 12 guesses
Bailey: 5 guesses
Cingrani: 2 guesses
Stephenson: 1 guess
Actual: Cueto (2.25)
This one really could have went anywhere. Kudos to Shinkle for nailing this one too. It's like he's in Cueto's head.
ERA LEADER (RELIEVER)
Chapman: 21 guesses
LeCure: 6 guesses
Hoover: 6 guesses
Parra: 5 guesses
Actual: Broxton (1.86)
I was ready to give this award to the Chapman voters straight away, but despite not being on the team at the end of the season (and not being a qualifier in BBRef's eyes), Broxton did pitch more than 25 innings for the team, so nobody gets points. Also, why didn't anyone guess him? Not even over Parra?
STRIKEOUTS
Bailey: 24 guesses
Cingrani: 9 guesses
Latos: 5 guesses
Actual: Cueto (242)
Swing and a miss.
STRIKEOUTS/9
Chapman: 36 guesses
Cingrani: 2 guesses
Actual: Chapman (17.7)
Most of you were right on here, but nobody was able to predict just how dominant Chapman would be. Mr. Redlegs Posse got the extra point here, too, with the closest guess.
RESULTS
| Username | Wins | Place | RunsS | RunsA | AVG | OBP | SLG | Doubles | HR | SB | W | SV | ERA (S) | ERA (Re) | SO | K/9 | TOTAL |
| WINNER | 76 | 4 | 595 | 612 | Frazier/Mesoraco (.273) | Mesoraco (.359) | Mesoraco (.534) | Mes/BP/B-Ham (25) | Frazier (29) | Hamilton (56) | Cueto (20) | Chapman (36) | Cueto (2.25) | Broxton (1.86) | Cueto (242) | Chapman (17.7) | |
| Andrew | 88 | 2 | 650 | 550 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (75) | Cueto (20) | Chapman (29) | Cueto (2.25) | LeCure | Latos | Chapman (15.5) | 9 |
| Mr. Redlegs Posse | 93 | 1 | 725 | 614 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (53) | Bruce | Hamilton (64) | Cueto (22) | Chapman (39) | Bailey | Chapman (1.22) | Cingrani | Chapman (17.4) | 7 |
| crolfer | 86 | 2 | 700 | 500 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (112) | Latos | Chapman (36) | Latos | Chapman (2.02) | Latos | Chapman (15.2) | 5 |
| Lord Pork Sword | 84 | 4 | 652 | 629 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (92) | Bailey | Chapman (21) | Bailey | Hoover | Bailey | Chapman (14.9) | 5 |
| joshuar | 93 | 2 | 680 | 610 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (65) | Latos | Chapman (35) | Cueto (2.90) | Chapman (2.50) | Bailey | Chapman (14.9) | 5 |
| Red Menace | 82 | 2 | 604 | 591 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (101) | Bailey | Chapman (31) | Latos | Chapman (2.50) | Cingrani | Chapman (14.6) | 4 |
| Springfield Red | 93 | 2 | 685 | 592 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (78) | Latos | Chapman (31) | Cueto (2.17) | Parra | Bailey | Chapman (11.3) | 4 |
| Wick | 91 | 1 | 682 | 573 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (88) | Bailey | Chapman (24) | Cueto (2.95) | Parra | Bailey | Chapman (12.9) | 4 |
| bhurbin1 | 92 | 2 | 650 | 490 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (100) | Latos | Chapman (30) | Cueto (2.70) | Chapman (2.10) | Cingrani | Chapman (16.0) | 4 |
| ken | 90 | 1 | 710 | 620 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (69) | Bailey | Chapman (25) | Cueto (3.10) | Hoover | Bailey | Chapman (14.2) | 4 |
| btcoop | 84 | 3 | 707 | 689 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (60) | Latos | Chapman (30) | Latos | LeCure | Bailey | Chapman (11.8) | 4 |
| knightofsebastian | 89 | 1 | 707 | 598 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Hamilton (101) | Bailey | Chapman (18) | Cueto (3.00) | Chapman (2.50) | Bailey | Chapman (12.0) | 4 |
| badenjr | 99 | 1 | 726 | 575 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (109) | Bailey | Chapman (28) | Cueto (2.81) | Chapman (1.53) | Latos | Chapman (14.7) | 4 |
| HarrietWinslow | 87 | 2 | 673 | 601 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (72) | Bailey | Chapman (27) | Cueto (2.73) | Chapman (1.98) | Bailey | Chapman (14.2) | 4 |
| redsfan6 | 86 | 2 | 735 | 589 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (100) | Cueto (18) | Chapman (38) | Latos | Chapman (1.73) | Cingrani | Chapman (16.5) | 4 |
| KC | 88 | 2 | 690 | 630 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (71) | Bailey | Chapman (22) | Cueto (3.36) | Chapman (2.40) | Bailey | Chapman (11.8) | 4 |
| muffins | 92 | 1 | 700 | 610 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (83) | Bailey | Chapman (30) | Latos | Parra | Bailey | Chapman (15.9) | 4 |
| chuck scrabs | 162 | 1 | 1233 | 14 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (111) | Cueto (33) | Chapman (4) | Latos | Hoover | Cingrani | Chapman (27.0) | 4 |
| GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat | 93 | 1 | 729 | 588 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (81) | Cueto (18) | Chapman (29) | Cingrani | Chapman (2.22) | Latos | Chapman (15.2) | 4 |
| bringbackthemayor | 91 | 2 | 790 | 690 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (84) | Bailey | Chapman (28) | Cueto (2.63) | Chapman (1.89) | Bailey | Chapman (15.7) | 4 |
| MC Reds Hot | 93 | 1 | 644 | 581 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (88) | Cueto (17) | Chapman (29) | Latos | Parra | Cingrani | Chapman (14.2) | 4 |
| JasperRed | 79 | 3 | 661 | 671 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (81) | Latos | Chapman (28) | Stephenson | LeCure | Cingrani | Chapman (14.3) | 4 |
| Lost and Found | 90 | 1 | 800 | 700 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (50) | Bruce | Hamilton (70) | Bailey | Hoover | Latos | Chapman (1.75) | Latos | Chapman (13.0) | 4 |
| ritalin | 87 | 2 | 681 | 593 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (83) | Bailey | Chapman (31) | Latos | LeCure | Bailey | Chapman (14.7) | 3 |
| 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| DerekH | 105 | 1 | 855 | 689 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (107) | Latos | Chapman (35) | Latos | Chapman (1.33) | Cingrani | Chapman (17.3) | 3 |
| 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| oklahoma red | 93 | 2 | 722 | 593 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (72) | Bailey | Chapman (32) | Bailey | Chapman (2.60) | Bailey | Chapman (14.5) | 3 |
| ben nevis | 96 | 1 | 701 | 580 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (69) | Latos | Chapman (27) | Cingrani | Hoover | Bailey | Chapman (14.1) | 3 |
| 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nasty N8 | 94 | 1 | 720 | 615 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (99) | Bailey | Chapman (35) | Latos | LeCure | Bailey | Chapman (16.0) | 3 |
| SunnyD | 89 | 2 | 672 | 600 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (89) | Cueto (18) | Hoover | Latos | Chapman (1.43) | Bailey | Chapman (14.9) | 3 |
| SabosGoggles | 92 | 1 | 690 | 600 | Votto | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (71) | Latos | Chapman (28) | Latos | Hoover | Cingrani | Chapman (15.2) | 3 |
| dcannon5 | 89 | 2 | 729 | 681 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (89) | Latos | Chapman (31) | Bailey | Chapman (1.89) | Bailey | Chapman (12.3) | 3 |
| The C | 87 | 2 | 715 | 601 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Bruce | Bruce | Hamilton (87) | Bailey | Chapman (32) | Latos | Chapman (2.30) | Bailey | Chapman (15.5) | 3 |
| Ram27 | 91 | 2 | 669 | 520 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (50) | Latos | Chapman (34) | Latos | Chapman (1.42) | Bailey | Cingrani | 2 |
| jclark413 | 88 | 3 | 630 | 570 | Votto | Votto | Bruce | Votto | Bruce | Hamilton (75) | Bailey | Hoover | Latos | Chapman (1.70) | Bailey | Chapman (13.8) | 2 |
| WINNER | 76 | 4 | 595 | 612 | Frazier/Mesoraco (.273) | Mesoraco (.359) | Mesoraco (.534) | Mes/BP/B-Ham (25) | Frazier (29) | Hamilton (56) | Cueto (20) | Chapman (36) | Cueto (2.25) | Broxton (1.86) | Cueto (242) | Chapman (17.7) |
Using our system of 1 point for a correct answer, 2 for the closest, and an extra for a direct hit, our very own Andrew Shinkle is the winner of the prediction contest this year!
However, since Shinks is providing the prize, he's agreed to give it to the second place finisher, which means the Mr. Redlegs Posse is this year's... prize recipient? He gets a copy of "Big Red", by Ken Griffey Sr. Way to go, MRP!