clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2014 RR Prediction Contest Results

Yikes.

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The 2014 has come to an end for our Redlegs, which means it's time to revisit our preseason predictions. Oh, how naive we were.

We'll go through each category and see how we did, and then award the prize to who did the best overall.

WINS

Range of guesses: 79-162
Median guess: 90.5
Most popular guess: 93
Actual: 76

This is a pretty good indicator of how the rest of this is about to go. Reds fans were expecting a winner, with most expecting a 90+ win season. The point for this went to JasperRed, who was the only one who predicted a losing season (and the only one to correctly predict that the Reds would have more runs against than runs for).

DIVISION STANDING

Range of guesses: 1st-4th
Median guess: 2nd
Most popular guess: 2nd
Actual: 4th

Yuck. Despite most RRs predicting a 90-win season, expectations were high for the rest of the division as well, with seemingly most of us figuring the Reds would take a wild card spot. Lord Pork Sword was the only one to guess that the team would finish 4th, but also guessed that they'd win 82 games. The NL Central was competitive all year, but not as tough as previously thought.

RUNS SCORED

Range of guesses: 604-1233
Median guess: 700.5
Most popular guess: 715
Actual: 595

Woof. Nobody expected the offense to be this bad. Our expectations would have put the Reds as the 3rd best offense in the NL, as opposed to the 3rd worst that they had. Red Menace got the point with the lowest guess.

RUNS AGAINST

Range of guesses: 14-700
Median guess: 600
Most popular guess: 610
Actual: 612

We did really well here, actually. Everyone expected the Reds pitching to be good, and they were good, albeit in a smaller run environment than many of us probably thought. Mr. Redlegs Posse, joshuar, and muffins each score a point here, with a prediction 2 runs off of the actual.

AVERAGE LEADER

Votto: 38 guesses
Actual: Frazier/Mesoraco (.273)

Every single one of you guessed Joey Votto. I'm not sure that anyone could have predicted that Votto would be a non-qualifier for rate stats, and that his stats wouldn't even be that great (he finished at .255).

OBP LEADER

Votto: 38 guesses
Actual: Mesoraco (.359)

Man, how good was Devin Mesoraco this year? Good enough that nobody predicted that he'd run away with a bunch of the hitting categories.

SLG LEADER

Bruce: 25 guesses
Votto: 13 guesses
Actual: Mesoraco (.534)

Injuries, man. Mes wins again.

DOUBLES LEADER

Votto: 24 guesses
Bruce: 12 guesses
Hamilton: 2 guesses
Actual: Mesoraco/Phillips/Hamilton (25)

Hey, a hit! 2 correctly guessed that B-Ham would lead the team in homers, although the closest guess was twice as many doubles as he actually had. Lost and Found gets two points, Mr. Redlegs Posse scores one.

HOMERS LEADER

Bruce: 37 guesses
Votto: 1 guess
Actual: Frazier (29)

Todd Frazier also got no love in the preseason, before putting the offense on his back before the All-Star break. Most guessed Bruce.

STOLEN BASE LEADER

Hamilton: 38 guesses
Actual: Hamilton (56)

Everyone guessed Hamilton, so everyone got a point here. Most guesses were way high, though, with many predicting him to steal over 100 bases. btcoop got 2 points for guessing 60, 4 off of the actual total.

WINS LEADER

Bailey: 19 guesses
Latos: 11 guesses
Cueto: 8 guesses
Actual: Cueto (20)

This is the beginning of the section where we should have given Johnny Cueto more credit than we did. There were still a handful who correctly predicted that Cueto would stay dominant, with Shinkle hitting it on the nose with 20 wins.

SAVES LEADER

Chapman: 34 guesses
Hoover: 4 guesses
Actual: Chapman (36)

Most of you nailed this in the 25-40 save range, with crolfer hitting it exactly. Those Hoover guesses look ridiculous now, but remember that Chapman was hurt at prediction time and that Hoover was scheduled to get most of the calls then.

ERA LEADER (STARTER)

Latos: 18 guesses
Cueto: 12 guesses
Bailey: 5 guesses
Cingrani: 2 guesses
Stephenson: 1 guess
Actual: Cueto (2.25)

This one really could have went anywhere. Kudos to Shinkle for nailing this one too. It's like he's in Cueto's head.

ERA LEADER (RELIEVER)

Chapman: 21 guesses
LeCure: 6 guesses
Hoover: 6 guesses
Parra: 5 guesses
Actual: Broxton (1.86)

I was ready to give this award to the Chapman voters straight away, but despite not being on the team at the end of the season (and not being a qualifier in BBRef's eyes), Broxton did pitch more than 25 innings for the team, so nobody gets points. Also, why didn't anyone guess him? Not even over Parra?

STRIKEOUTS

Bailey: 24 guesses
Cingrani: 9 guesses
Latos: 5 guesses
Actual: Cueto (242)

Swing and a miss.

STRIKEOUTS/9

Chapman: 36 guesses
Cingrani: 2 guesses
Actual: Chapman (17.7)

Most of you were right on here, but nobody was able to predict just how dominant Chapman would be. Mr. Redlegs Posse got the extra point here, too, with the closest guess.

RESULTS

Username Wins Place RunsS RunsA AVG OBP SLG Doubles HR SB W SV ERA (S) ERA (Re) SO K/9 TOTAL
WINNER 76 4 595 612 Frazier/Mesoraco (.273) Mesoraco (.359) Mesoraco (.534) Mes/BP/B-Ham (25) Frazier (29) Hamilton (56) Cueto (20) Chapman (36) Cueto (2.25) Broxton (1.86) Cueto (242) Chapman (17.7)
Andrew 88 2 650 550 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (75) Cueto (20) Chapman (29) Cueto (2.25) LeCure Latos Chapman (15.5) 9
Mr. Redlegs Posse 93 1 725 614 Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (53) Bruce Hamilton (64) Cueto (22) Chapman (39) Bailey Chapman (1.22) Cingrani Chapman (17.4) 7
crolfer 86 2 700 500 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (112) Latos Chapman (36) Latos Chapman (2.02) Latos Chapman (15.2) 5
Lord Pork Sword 84 4 652 629 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (92) Bailey Chapman (21) Bailey Hoover Bailey Chapman (14.9) 5
joshuar 93 2 680 610 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (65) Latos Chapman (35) Cueto (2.90) Chapman (2.50) Bailey Chapman (14.9) 5
Red Menace 82 2 604 591 Votto Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Hamilton (101) Bailey Chapman (31) Latos Chapman (2.50) Cingrani Chapman (14.6) 4
Springfield Red 93 2 685 592 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (78) Latos Chapman (31) Cueto (2.17) Parra Bailey Chapman (11.3) 4
Wick 91 1 682 573 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (88) Bailey Chapman (24) Cueto (2.95) Parra Bailey Chapman (12.9) 4
bhurbin1 92 2 650 490 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (100) Latos Chapman (30) Cueto (2.70) Chapman (2.10) Cingrani Chapman (16.0) 4
ken 90 1 710 620 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (69) Bailey Chapman (25) Cueto (3.10) Hoover Bailey Chapman (14.2) 4
btcoop 84 3 707 689 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (60) Latos Chapman (30) Latos LeCure Bailey Chapman (11.8) 4
knightofsebastian 89 1 707 598 Votto Votto Votto Bruce Votto Hamilton (101) Bailey Chapman (18) Cueto (3.00) Chapman (2.50) Bailey Chapman (12.0) 4
badenjr 99 1 726 575 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (109) Bailey Chapman (28) Cueto (2.81) Chapman (1.53) Latos Chapman (14.7) 4
HarrietWinslow 87 2 673 601 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (72) Bailey Chapman (27) Cueto (2.73) Chapman (1.98) Bailey Chapman (14.2) 4
redsfan6 86 2 735 589 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (100) Cueto (18) Chapman (38) Latos Chapman (1.73) Cingrani Chapman (16.5) 4
KC 88 2 690 630 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (71) Bailey Chapman (22) Cueto (3.36) Chapman (2.40) Bailey Chapman (11.8) 4
muffins 92 1 700 610 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (83) Bailey Chapman (30) Latos Parra Bailey Chapman (15.9) 4
chuck scrabs 162 1 1233 14 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (111) Cueto (33) Chapman (4) Latos Hoover Cingrani Chapman (27.0) 4
GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat 93 1 729 588 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (81) Cueto (18) Chapman (29) Cingrani Chapman (2.22) Latos Chapman (15.2) 4
bringbackthemayor 91 2 790 690 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (84) Bailey Chapman (28) Cueto (2.63) Chapman (1.89) Bailey Chapman (15.7) 4
MC Reds Hot 93 1 644 581 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (88) Cueto (17) Chapman (29) Latos Parra Cingrani Chapman (14.2) 4
JasperRed 79 3 661 671 Votto Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Hamilton (81) Latos Chapman (28) Stephenson LeCure Cingrani Chapman (14.3) 4
Lost and Found 90 1 800 700 Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (50) Bruce Hamilton (70) Bailey Hoover Latos Chapman (1.75) Latos Chapman (13.0) 4
ritalin 87 2 681 593 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (83) Bailey Chapman (31) Latos LeCure Bailey Chapman (14.7) 3
HamWinningherm 93 1 715 640 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (90) Cueto (18) Hoover Cueto (2.58) LeCure Bailey Cingrani 3
DerekH 105 1 855 689 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (107) Latos Chapman (35) Latos Chapman (1.33) Cingrani Chapman (17.3) 3
Weezy 89 2 694 617 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (72) Bailey Chapman (26) Latos Parra Bailey Chapman (15.8) 3
oklahoma red 93 2 722 593 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (72) Bailey Chapman (32) Bailey Chapman (2.60) Bailey Chapman (14.5) 3
ben nevis 96 1 701 580 Votto Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Hamilton (69) Latos Chapman (27) Cingrani Hoover Bailey Chapman (14.1) 3
Aaron 87 2 705 630 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (82) Bailey Chapman (25) Bailey Hoover Bailey Chapman (13.2) 3
CutterAndy 94 1 725 575 Votto Votto Votto Votto Bruce Hamilton (111) Bailey Chapman (30) Latos Chapman (1.33) Bailey Chapman (16.5) 3
Nasty N8 94 1 720 615 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (99) Bailey Chapman (35) Latos LeCure Bailey Chapman (16.0) 3
SunnyD 89 2 672 600 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (89) Cueto (18) Hoover Latos Chapman (1.43) Bailey Chapman (14.9) 3
SabosGoggles 92 1 690 600 Votto Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Hamilton (71) Latos Chapman (28) Latos Hoover Cingrani Chapman (15.2) 3
dcannon5 89 2 729 681 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (89) Latos Chapman (31) Bailey Chapman (1.89) Bailey Chapman (12.3) 3
The C 87 2 715 601 Votto Votto Bruce Bruce Bruce Hamilton (87) Bailey Chapman (32) Latos Chapman (2.30) Bailey Chapman (15.5) 3
Ram27 91 2 669 520 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (50) Latos Chapman (34) Latos Chapman (1.42) Bailey Cingrani 2
jclark413 88 3 630 570 Votto Votto Bruce Votto Bruce Hamilton (75) Bailey Hoover Latos Chapman (1.70) Bailey Chapman (13.8) 2
WINNER 76 4 595 612 Frazier/Mesoraco (.273) Mesoraco (.359) Mesoraco (.534) Mes/BP/B-Ham (25) Frazier (29) Hamilton (56) Cueto (20) Chapman (36) Cueto (2.25) Broxton (1.86) Cueto (242) Chapman (17.7)

Using our system of 1 point for a correct answer, 2 for the closest, and an extra for a direct hit, our very own Andrew Shinkle is the winner of the prediction contest this year!

However, since Shinks is providing the prize, he's agreed to give it to the second place finisher, which means the Mr. Redlegs Posse is this year's... prize recipient? He gets a copy of "Big Red", by Ken Griffey Sr. Way to go, MRP!