Reds at Rockies, Game 3: Preview/Prediction Thread

Few things beat late-Sunday afternoon baseball on a holiday weekend in the midst of a pennant race. This is particularly true when you have the chance to gain ground in the standings. The Reds have an opportunity this afternoon to creep towards either the Cardinals or the Pirates, depending on the outcome of their attempts to recreate selected scenes from the Battle of the Marne.

The Reds will attempt to take the third game and deciding game of this series this afternoon by starting Mike Leake. Leake is looking to win his twelfth game of the season which would match his career high from his sophomore effort in 2011. Leake was roughed up in his last outing against the Cardinals who have been responsible for two of his five losses this season and will be looking to get back to his winning ways as it has been over a month since the Reds have won consecutive games started by the right hander. Today is Leake's first career start at Coors Field, but the heart of the Rockies' lineup has had success against him in limited action in games played at GABP. Troy Tulowitzki is 3-6 with a home run and Todd Helton, who may appear in his quest for his 2,500 career hit, is 3 for 4.

Tyler Chatwood returns to the Rockies' active roster today to face the Reds after a month long stint on the DL with an elbow injury. In his one previous start against the Reds this season, Chatwood went four innings while only giving up one run and four hits on June 3 after being pulled due to soreness in his triceps. This contrast between injury and effectiveness has been the story of Chatwood this season. Between his trips to the disabled list in 2013, Chatwood has accumulated a 7-4 record with the Rockies in 85 innings with an ERA of 3.15. He doesn't walk too many batters but he does have an extremely pedestrian WHIP of 1.389 suggesting that his success thus far may soon regress to the mean.

A right handed pitcher who doesn't strike out or walk many players sounds just like the kind of pitcher that the Reds should excel against on paper. That is, of course, until you look at the career splits against some of the Reds. In eight at bats, Shin Soo Choo has accumulated 0 hits and one walk. Joey Votto, Zack Cozart, and Xavier Paul are also 0-fer in two at bats each. However, in a testament to these small sample sizes, Jay Bruce is 2 for 2 and Todd Frazier is 1-2 with an RBI.

So, it's time to concurrently increase sample sizes and success against these Rockies. Go Reds!