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GET WELL, DUSTY.
This is Clinch Weekend. It could even be Clinch Night. Marty and Dusty have gotten plenty of guff over the years, but it's a real shame they might both end up missing the celebration.
In half of the possible outcomes for this series with the Dodgers, the Reds win the division regardless of what the Cards do. Even if the Reds win less than two games, they still clinch in most scenarios. And even if they get swept, the Cardinals have to take at least two out of three from the Cubs. Although, I guess maybe that should be the "given" in this equation.
There are only 6 out of 64 scenarios where the Reds do not clinch this weekend - and only three of those involve the Cardinals not sweeping the Cubs. So all else being equal, the Reds have an over 90% chance of sweeping the Cards.
Needless to say, Reds' magic number is 2... Lineups, bench and Hyrdocorti-Mega0BullP.E.N. log 10.5.1 after the jump.
LINEUPS
REDS
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Zack Cozart (R) SS
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Scott Rolen (R) 3B
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Drew Stubbs (R) CF
Xavier Paul (L) LF
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Bronson Arroyo (R) P
Bench:
Devin Mesoraco (R) C
Dioner Navarro (R) C
Miguel Cairo (R) IF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B,1B,LF
Henry Rodriguez (S) 2B,3B
Wilson Valdez (R) SS
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Chris Heisey (R) OF
Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
Denis Phipps (R) OF
DODGERS