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Game 146: Reds @ Marlins (7:10 EDT). Cueto vs. Buehrle.

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Cincinnati Reds
@ Miami Marlins

Saturday, Sep 15, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Johnny Cueto vs Mark Buehrle


TV: FSO-HD, FSFL-HD; WLW, WAXY, WAQI; WEB:, Gameday Audio, Gameday


Partly cloudy, rain. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

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Johnny Cueto is starting to make me a little bit nervous. Not because I think he'll suddenly be terrible, but because it's hard to tell if he's hitting a wall. And if he muddles through the rest of the season, rather than the team taking some caution with him, he could hit a very concrete wall in the playoffs. That would be a lot more painful than blowing up now and dialing it down for October.

If he stays on turn, Cueto has 4 starts left (including tonight). He threw 170.1 innings (MLB + rehab) last season and hit his professional high in '10 with 185.2 (+ another 5 the playoffs). This season, if nothing intervenes, he'll be around 210-220 before the playoffs.

There are a number of ways to pace JC:

  • Go with a 6-man rotation. Slotting in Redmond or Cingrani 5 games from now would give Cueto an extra day of rest between starts, while knocking out his last start. If he averaged 6 IP over three starts, he'd land around 210 IP.
  • Cap Cueto's innings-per-game. Let Cueto make his four starts, but keep him on a short leash and pull him after 5 or so. Might have a similar effect on innings to a 6-man, but would keep him on the normal schedule.
  • Skip start(s). They've got two off-days and several possible spot starters to work with. Skip a start or juggle the rotation.
  • Shut him down after today, until the playoffs. Unless Cueto throws 7.2 IP or more tonight, he'd wind up below 200 innings. He could come out of the 'pen to stay sharp. This seems excessive.

Will the Reds try any of these? Would shaving 10-15 innings even matter? I'm really not sure. I don't think they necessarily need to keep him below 200, but it seems prudent to have him miss the equivalent of at least one start, giving him a break from the normal rate of max effort pitching he's maintained all season. Especially if he shows some wear again tonight.

The Reds' magic number is 7... Lineups, bench and UltraflexBullP.E.N. log(X)treme after the jump.

Johnny Cueto
Stats Mark Buehrle
2.71 (156)
ERA (ERA+) 3.74 (106)
WHIP 1.196
K/BB 2.89
IP 180.2



Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Wilson Valdez (R) SS
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Scott Rolen (R) 3B
Drew Stubbs (R) CF
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Bronson Arroyo (R) P


Devin Mesoraco (R) C
Dioner Navarro (S) C
Miguel Cairo (R) IF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B,1B,LF
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Henry Rodriguez (S) 2B/3B
Xavier Paul (L) OF
Denis Phipps (R) OF
Chris Heisey (R) OF

Zack Cozart (R) SS - day-to-day


Bryan Petersen (L) LF
Justin Ruggiano (R) CF
Jose Reyes (S) SS
Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF
Carlos Lee (R) 1B
Greg Dobbs (L) 3B
Donovan Solano (R) 2B
Rob Brantly (L) C
Mark Buehrle (L) P

Bullpen Log

Reliever 9/10 9/11 9/112 9/13 9/14 5 day totals
Aroldis Chapman 0.2, 22p


0.2 IP, 22 pitches
Jonathan Broxton 1.1, 18p 1.0, 13p

2.1 IP, 31 pitches
Sean Marshall 0.2, 12p 0.2, 4p

1.1 IP, 16 pitches
Jose Arredondo 1.0, 17p


1.0 IP, 17 pitches
Sam LeCure 1.1, 19p
1.0, 12p -

2.1 IP, 31 pitches
J.J. Hoover
2.0, 28p
1.0, 18p -

3.0 IP, 46 pitches
Alfredo Simon 1.0, 18p

1.0, 10p
1.0 IP, 18 pitches
Logan Ondrusek

0.1, 5p
1.0, 13p 1.1 IP, 18 pitches
Tony Cingrani

0 IP, 0 pitches
Todd Redmond


0 IP, 0 pitches
Pedro Villareal


0 IP, 0 pitches