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Game 116 Preview & Thread: Reds vs. Mets (7:10 EDT). Latos vs. Young.

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New York Mets
@ Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday, Aug 14, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Chris Young vs Mat Latos


TV: FSO-HD, SNY-HD; RADIO: WLW, WFAN, WQBU; WEB:, Gameday Audio, Gameday


Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

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There's been some trepidation about the innings' counts in the Reds rotation. While I think it's more important to look at physiology, mechanics and age curves, I don't really have access to most of that information - and wouldn't know what to do with it if I did. So at least innings give us a number to work with.

Mat Latos has thrown 141.2 innings and is on pace to make 10 more starts (including today), though it'll probably be 9 with some spacers or skipped starts in there. At his current rate of innings consumption, 9 more starts would put him at a little over 191.1 innings. If you assume instead he makes all 10 starts - and pitches a little better than he has to date - he's probably over 200. That's not much of a red flag, considering he threw 194.1 last season.

At 24, Latos is something of a border case on the aging vs. injury risk. He had a sore shoulder that sidelined him to start 2011. He's also never been in the playoffs. But he's fully capable of throwing around 200 innings and is showing no after-effects of last year's injury. If he's kept to 9 starts and not pushed too hard in September, he should be fully ready for the playoffs.

Playoffs? Playoffs.

Mat Latos Stats Chris Young
3.81 (111)
ERA (ERA+) 4.87 (79)
WHIP 1.346
K/BB 2.10
FIP 4.69
xFIP 5.53
SIERA 5.25
IP 68.1



Zack Cozart (R) SS
Drew Stubbs (R) CF
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Todd Frazier (R) 1B
Wilson Valdez (R) 3B
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Mat Latos (R) P


Ruben Tejada (R) SS
Mike Baxter (L) RF
David Wright (R) 3B
Ike Davis (L) 1B
Daniel Murphy (L) 2B
Jordany Valdespin (L) LF
Andres Torres (S) CF
Josh Thole (L) C
Chris Young (R) P

Bullpen Log

Reliever 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 5 day totals
Aroldis Chapman 1.1, 20p 1.0, 13p
1.0, 17p
3.1 P, 50 pitches
Sean Marshall 1.0, 25p 0.1, 14p -
1.1 IP, 49 pitches
Jonathan Broxton 0.2, 21p -
0.2 IP, 21 pitches
Logan Ondrusek 0.2, 13p -
0.2 IP, 13 pitches
Jose Arredondo 0.1, 11p 0.1, 6p -
0.2 IP, 17 pitches
Sam LeCure 0.2, 8p -
0.2 IP, 8 pitches
Alfredo Simon -
0.0 IP, 0 pitches

Bullpen notes:

  • Bullpen at Rest.