Friday, Jul 13, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park
Adam Wainwright vs Mat Latos
TV: FSO-HD, FSMW-HD; RADIO: WLW, KMOX; WEB: MLB.tv, Gameday Audio, Gameday
Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.
It's still hard to believe the Reds got off the West Coast with a winning trip. But they did and now everyone is well-rested, even the All Stars (though their egos may be slightly bruised).
I hesitate to call this a Big Series, even though it's being billed that way by everyone from the local press to ESPN (with requisite 2010 brawl clips for their Sunday night broadcast). There are virtually no "big games" in the MLB regular season and slightly more Big Series. Even if the Reds are swept, they'll only end up 1.5 games behind the Cardinals. We don't know what the Pirates are going to do, but I suspect I'll be slightly annoyed by it.
The Reds have gone 17-22 against the Cardinals since the beginning of 2010, with a 9-10 record at home. That's not quite as bad as I thought and around what you'd expect, considering the fact that the Cardinals - let's admit it - have been ever so slightly better than the Reds over that 2.5 year stretch. But this is the rubber season. 2012 is ours. The summer of George (Grande).
Mat Latos looks to continue what's been a very dominant Last Three Starts: 25 IP, 2 CG, 2 ER, 28 K, 4 BB. That's one in ten thousand simulations type numbers. Something else fun and cool about Latos is that his 101 ERA+ now exactly matches what he put up last season. Adjusting for parks (but not recreation) and run environment, Latos is the pitcher you'd expect him to be based on last season. With the way he's been pitching lately, he could be just as ace-worthy as he was in 2010. It just requires looking at his regular ERA through the jaundiced eye of a GABP junkie.
Lineups and junk, after the hump.
| Mat Latos||Stats|
|4.13 (101) ||ERA (ERA+)||4.56 (85) |
|1.204 ||WHIP||1.354 |
|3.27 ||K/BB||3.38 |
|4.22 ||FIP||3.33 |
|3.74 ||xFIP||3.08 |
|3.63 ||SIERA||3.29 |
|104.2 ||IP||102.2 |
Zack Cozart (R) SS
Drew Stubbs (R) CF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Mat Latos (R) P
Rafael Furcal (S) SS
Jon Jay (L) CF
Matt Holliday (R) LF
Carlos Beltran (S) RF
Allen Craig (R) 1B
Yadier Molina (R) C
David Freese (R) 3B
Skip Schumaker (L) 2B
Adam Wainwright (R) P
|Reliever||7/8||7/9||7/10||7/11||7/12||5 day totals|
|Aroldis Chapman||1.0, 16p ||0.1, 12p ||1.1 IP, 28 pitches |
|Sean Marshall||1.2, 19p ||* ||1.2 IP, 19 pitches |
|Logan Ondrusek||SOME ||0.0 IP, 0 pitches |
|Jose Arredondo||* ||0.0 IP, 0 pitches|
|Sam LeCure||0.2, 20p ||STARS ||0.2 IP, 20 pitches |
|Alfredo Simon||* ||0.0 IP, 0 pitches|
|Bill Bray||GAME ||0.0 IP, 0 pitches|
- For whatever reason (math accident?), Chapman is worst this season with exactly 2 days rest. But I'll take a 3.55 ERA.