Saturday, May 5, 2012, 7:05 PM EDT
Mike Leake vs James McDonald
TV: FSO-HD, ROOT-HD; RADIO: WLW, KDKA; WEB: MLB.tv, Gameday Audio, Gameday
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70.
I hope you enjoyed your Margarita Julep with a splash of Negro Modelo and Horsemeat, it's time for baseball again.
Mike Leake is averaging less than 5.2 innings per start over 4 starts this season. The advantage of a well-rested bullpen is that Leake can be on a shorter leash, but it would be far better for Leake to have as much room as possible to regain his feel and boost his confidence against the weakest offense in the National League. If the Reds can create a cushion (for the pushin'), maybe Leake can start getting right tonight.
His FIP (and xFIP) say he should be significantly better, largely because he's giving up so few walks and home runs. His HR/FB rate is around average, but he's just not giving up many fly balls. He's getting killed on hard hit liners. I think it's a good sign he's not being crushed out of the park. Given his control, he may be just barely missing his spots. I'd expect more fly balls and home runs with a systematic breakdown like pitch-tipping or uniform lack of movement.
The Reds are working on a little old streak here. A win tonight would tie their season high in consecutive wins. Standing in their way is James McDonald. He faced the Reds more than any other team last season (5 starts, 122 batters faced). That should mean the Reds have some good intel on him, but it often doesn't work out that way. The Reds' game against him in 2011 was their first, over a year a go.
Go Reds! Let's play the game and win the game.
| Mike Leake ||Stats||James McDonald|
|6.65 (59) ||ERA (ERA+)||2.97 (125) |
|Zack Cozart SS |
| || Neil Walker 2B |
| Joey Votto 1B ||Andrew McCutchen CF |
|Pedro Alvarez 3B|
| || Casey McGehee 1B |
| Clint Barmes SS |
| C|| Rod Barajas C |
|Mike Leake RHP||James McDonald RHP |
|Reliever||4/30||5/1||5/2||5/3||5/4||5 day totals|
|Sean Marshall||- ||-||1.0, 20p||1.0 IP, 20 pitches|
|Aroldis Chapman||-||-||1.0, 16p||1.0 IP, 16 pitches |
|Logan Ondrusek||- ||-||1.0, 12p ||1.0 IP, 12 pitches |
|Jose Arredondo||- ||-||1.0, 10p ||1.0 IP, 10 pitches|
|Sam LeCure||- ||-||2.0, 26p||2.0 IP, 26 pitches |
|J.J. Hoover||-||- ||1.0, 12p||1.0 IP, 12 pitches |
|Alfredo Simon||-||-||0.0 IP, 0 pitches|