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Game 43: Reds vs. Braves (7:10 EDT). Arroyo vs. Hanson.

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Atlanta Braves
@ Cincinnati Reds

Wednesday, May 23, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Tommy Hanson vs Bronson Arroyo


TV: FSO-HD, SS-HD; RADIO: WLW, WCNN; WEB:, Gameday Audio, Gameday


Mostly clear. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

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The last time the Reds were four games above .500 was exactly one year a go yesterday. Knowing how last season turned out (winning records = 0), maybe this is a cautionary tale about not reading too much into the Reds' current success. But where that team was on its way down from an early peak (and in the midst of a 6 game losing streak) - this team is upwardly mobile and beating good competition.

You might argue that last May's sweep of the future World Champs could easily be the equivalent to this May's good showing against the Yanks and Braves. Still, the talent level on this team is higher. Right? I mean, it would suck if it wasn't. We can't know yet whether this team will be like 2011, 2010, 1995 or something even more special, but I don't think staying in the race is a passing fad.

Bronson Arroyo's success might not be either. By all accounts, he's healthy - which makes a world of difference. His home run rate and HR/FB rate are back down to career average. His stuff, especially his curveball and slider, looks confusing again.

By commanding his trick bag better than he ever has, he's striking out more while walking less. That's reflected in his peripherals, which he's outperforming less than he has in years. While he's getting stung on balls that are staying in the park, he might also be unlucky with a BABIP 30 points higher than his career average.

GoRoyo, Go Rojos.

Bronson Arroyo
Stats Tommy Hanson
3.46 (114)
ERA (ERA+) 3.31 (113)
WHIP 1.374
K/BB 2.19
FIP 3.77
xFIP 4.01
SIERA 3.94
IP 51.2

Lineup forthcoming

Bullpen note: The Reds have been in some close games recently, so it makes perfect sense that we're seeing more of the better 4/7ths of the bullpen. More than that, they've been winning these games. So no one wants to hear from a nerd and his Bullpen Log, especially if the message is: "Please play comparatively worse players more."

But. Dusty is in danger of riding Chapman, Ondrusek and Arrendo a too hard as they season wears on, while letting LeCure, Simon and Hoover rust. Even if the Reds lead games by 2 runs from here to Sunday, you have to get those guys some reps.

Bullpen Log

Reliever 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5 day totals
Aroldis Chapman 1.0, 17p 1.0, 15p 1.0, 18p
3.0 IP, 67 pitches
Sean Marshall 0.1, 20p 0.1, 3p 0.1, 6p 1.0 IP, 29 pitches
Logan Ondrusek 0.2, 10p 0.2, 3p 1.0, 16p
2.1 IP, 47 pitches
Jose Arredondo 0.1, 6p 0.2, 7p 0.2, 19p 1.2 IP, 32 pitches
Sam LeCure 0 IP, 0 pitches
J.J. Hoover 1.0 IP, 17 pitches
Alfredo Simon 0 IP, 0 pitches