As we did last year, we're giving the Rotten Tomatoes treatment to Reds' prospect rankings and placing that alongside our own crowd-sourced Community Prospect Rankings for your consideration. This enables us to see every instance where the experts are wrong so that you can begin your fevered letter-writing campaign. Or, more charitably, it gives us a fuller picture of where each young player stands entering the 2012 season.
The rankings that were averaged below were those of John Sickels, Kevin Goldstein (at BPro) and Baseball America. Each set of expert picks values different attributes in prospects, as does the Red Reporter readership, but at the very least this list should give credit to prospects with both high ceilings AND major-league-readiness, while smoothing out some of the disagreement.
Thanks to BK and 'creds for their hard work and dutiful chest compressions on the CPR. The system may need a little pulmonary resuscitation, but still boasts a number of very high upside prospects at premium positions whose ETAs will come due within the next few seasons. Add that to the three first/supplemental round picks the Reds will have in June and high hopes for Mr. Stephenson and several other savvy picks from the 2011 draft and I'd say the farm is far from gutted.
A few notes:
- Devin Mesoraco wasn't a consensus #1, but he's as close as possible (3 of 4 #1s to go with a #2 from BPro). Along with his 1st round pedigree, high minors performance and depth of professional experience, there's no reason he shouldn't be roughly splitting time with Hanigan to start 2012.
- The response to Daniel Corcino was pretty coherent too. Until we see Stephenson in action and Cingrani moving forward as a starter, he's at the head of the starting pitching class.
-
Most divisive prospects: Neftali Soto - Top 5 for us, but didn't crack the Top 10 for Sickels; Tony Cingrani - who Sickels is very high on and thinks could be a #3 starter, while BPro puts him in the middle of the pack with a reliever ceiling; JC Sulbaran, who BPro loves unrequited; Denis Phipps; Kyle Lotzkar; Juan Duran; Gabriel Rosa
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Biggest gaps between Red Reporter and "the experts": Neftali Soto, Denis Phipps, Juan Duran, Gabriel Rosa, Ryan Wright
** "999" = unranked
| Prospect | CPR | BA | BPro | Sickels | Experts' avg. | All 4 avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Mesoraco |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Zack Cozart |
2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| Billy Hamilton |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1.67 | 2.00 |
| Daniel Corcino |
4 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
| Neftali Soto |
5 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
9.33 |
8.25 |
| Robert Stephenson |
6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| Yorman Rodriguez |
7 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 11.33 | 10.25 |
| Todd Frazier |
8 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7.67 |
7.83 |
| Henry Rodriguez |
9 |
13 |
10 | 10 | 11.00 | 10.5 |
| Didi Gregorius |
10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6.67 | 7.5 |
| Tony Cingrani |
11 |
11 |
16 |
6 |
11.00 |
11.00 |
| JC Sulbaran |
12 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 9.00 | 9.75 |
| Denis Phipps |
13 | 999 | 999 | 20 | 21.33 | 19.25 |
| Kyle Lotzkar |
14 | 25 | 12 | 15 | 17.33 | 20.67 |
| David Vidal |
15 | 21 | 999 | 13 | 19.00 | 17.75 |
| Juan Duran |
16 | 28 | 19 | 999 | 20.67 | 19.5 |
| Tucker Barnhart |
17 | 25 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18.5 |
| Donald Lutz |
18 | 999 |
999 |
999 | 22.0 | 21.0 |
| Amir Garrett |
19 | 18 | 999 | 999 | 20.67 |
20.25 |
| Ryan LaMarre |
20 | 999 | 17 | 999 | 20.33 | 20.50 |
| Chris Manno |
21 | 999 | 999 | 999 | 22.00 | 21.75 |
| Gabriel Rosa |
22 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 15.67 | 17.25 |
| Junior Arias |
23 | 999 | 999 | 19 | 21 | 21.50 |
| Josh Smith |
24 | 999 | 999 | 999 | 22.00 | 21.75 |
| Sean Buckley |
25 | 19 | 999 | 999 | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| Ryan Wright |
999 | 18 | 20 | 999 | 20.00 | 20.50 |
Single listers:
Tim Crabbe (Sickels #14)
Chris Valaika (BA #16)
Donnie Joseph (BA #22)
Jonathan Perez (BA #24)
Donald Lutz(RR #18)
Chris Manno (RR #21)
Josh Smith (RR #24)
#
Methods, inspired by JinAZ: I just averaged the rank of each prospect across the three evaluators for the "experts avg." I added the CPR and averaged all four rankings for the "All 4 avg." To avoid too much torpedo effect, if a guy was not ranked in a list, I assigned him the rank of 22 for composting purposes and if he appeared below 20 in the BA or RR list, I assigned a 21.