The Reds have played better since the All Star Break than it's probably felt like for a lot of fans - even on a win-loss basis. Despite a four-game sweep by the Mets and back-to-back shut-out humiliations by the Pirates, the Reds are 9-9 since the break. Five-hundred baseball isn't worthy of much praise, but at least it beats the first-half record of 2-under. A win tonight would be the 4th series victory of six since the Break. Admittedly, looking on the bright side gets pathetic when the bar is this low.
The path for the Reds is clear: win every series. Any series loss has to be corrected with a sweep. If the Reds win close to 2/3 of their games and go to the house 34-18 (.653), they'll end up with 88 wins. The Brewers would have to put up a .520 win percentage to tie (a 4% downturn), while the Cardinals would have to turn it up a notch and go 30-21 (.588). I don't think the Reds can expect to win or tie for the division with much less than 88 wins unless the Brewers really fall off. They beat the Cardinals today, so the Reds can only hope to get within three of second place with a win tonight. Gotta pass the Pirates first, of course. Now that's leading from behind.
Willis is due for a win, so Go Reds! 'Cuz if you don't, then I can't help you.
LINEUP:
Drew Stubbs CF
Edgar Renteria SS
Joey Votto 1B
Brandon Phillips 2B
Jay Bruce RF
Fred Lewis LF
Ramon Hernandez C
Todd Frazier 3B
Dontrelle Willis LHP