Red Reposter - Is Bronson Arroyo another Eric Milton?

Bronson Arroyo will start tonight for the Reds
which is probably the least surprising news you'll hear all week. He's (in)famously never missed a start. Despite the mono, the sore back, the carpal tunnel, and now a sore Achilles, and, of course, his plain ol' bad pitching so far this year, he'll take his turn in the rotation once again.

I"m afraid this is starting to look like the Eric Milton situation all over again. In Milton's first year of his regrettable three-year contract, he led the league in earned runs and home runs allowed with a 66 ERA+. This year, in Arroyo's first year of his hopefully-not-regrettable three-year contract, he's allowed the second-most earned runs thus far (87 to Brett Myers' 88) and the most home runs, with a 75 ERA+. In fact, after checking both pitcher's B-Ref pages, their career numbers are gallingly similar. I really hope we aren't witnessing a Milton-esque decline from Arroyo, and my gut-instinct is that he's been unlucky so far this year and he can still bounce back. But this Milton comparison is going to keep me up at night.

B-Ref Blog notes that if Johnny Cueto can maintain his ERA over the last month+ of the season
he will set the Reds franchise record for the live-ball era. After last night's gem, his ERA is down to a scintillating 1.89, which betters Dolf Luque's 1.93 in '23 and Gary Nolan's 1.99 in '72. As we all know, this franchise is not exactly known for it's pitching (these two are the only ones to record a sub-2 ERA in 1920), but it would still be quite a feat from the young fella.

Sheldon praises Cueto for another excellent effort
but points out that even though he leads the universe in ERA, there is a good possibility that he will not finish in the top five in Cy Young balloting. Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Jair Jurrjens, and Ian Kennedy, just to name a few, are all having fantastic seasons in their own way. Dusty says "he’s definitely one of the elite pitchers," and he certainly is, but missing the first month of the season is going keep him from scoring any awards. Whatevs. Kid is still awesome.

Brandon Phillips is nothing if not confident
He sat down with Dusty Baker after Tuesday night's loss and laid it all on the table.

"I had a lot of things in my heart," Phillips said on Wednesday. "I just felt like that we have to have a spark at the top of the lineup. When he put me in the leadoff spot last year, I felt like I was the playmaker that kept us going. And we started winning when they put me in the leadoff spot. I could be myself. I could worry about being myself instead of worrying just about driving in runs hitting fourth. When I hit fourth, I am limited to a role and can't run or do a lot of things. I just talked to him man to man. He understood where I was coming from. I felt like it can't get worse. Let's try it and see what happens."

I don't feel like going back and fact-checking, but I'll take BeeP's word that the team started winning when he moved to lead-off. Thing is, it likely had very little to do with, or perhaps even it was in spite of, his move to lead-off. He got on base at a paltry .303 clip out of the #1 spot last year, which kinda stinks. His overall line this year is exactly what we've come to expect from the BeePer, as he's slashed .283/.330/.417. Hopefully he can keep that up as a lead-off man, as it would be an improvement over the aggregate so far this year. Reds' lead-off hitters have slashed .251/.323/.388.