San Diego Padres
@ Cincinnati Reds
Friday, Aug 12, 2011, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park
Mat Latos vs Bronson Arroyo
Clear. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
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NEWSBREAK: Via John Fay, Zack Cozart had Tommy John surgery on his left elbow this morning, his 26th birthday. Since it's not his throwing arm, he's expected to recover by Spring Training. I'm skeptical about that prognosis, just since these estimates usually end up over-optimistic. In any case, it has to increase the odds of the Reds making another ill-advised SS signing at least a little.
Also: Someone in Cincinnati kept his baseball card. Aaron and Jen Harang will be honored in a pre-game ceremony by the Reds Community Fund.
As JinAZ hinted in his series preview, it's hard to know what to expect when teams from run-depressed parks come to Great American Ballpark. Only one Padre is in double-digits for HRs (Ryan Ludwick, 11) and team slugging is a paltry .344, though it's a healthier .373 on the road. Facing the soft part of the Reds' rotation over the next two games, they have to like their chances. What they didn't expect is that the Reds are also secretly much better than their numbers indicate. Not only that, but they've got a two-game win-streak, which in the latter half of the season means GET OUT OF THE WAY. Length and number of win-streaks isn't a great metric for team success, but they are a symptom of a struggling team and the constant "reset" in the team's momentum has probably been deflating.
For Bronson Arroyo, like the rest of the team, the page is turned over to 2012. Was this season him falling off the cliff? Or more a function of bad luck and bad health. On the luck side, it's still about fly balls and home runs. He's allowing more (and more of the HR type, 32 on the year), while his xFIP and SIERA call for something closer to 4/5 starter performance. This version of Bronson is ill-suited for GABP, but hopefully he can get back into that territory, while eating innings. He's unlikely to crest 200 this season for the first time since 2004, when he was getting into stare-downs with A-Rod.
|2011 - Bronson Arroyo||7-9||26||23||0||0||0||0||141.1||163||91||86||32||35||80||5.48||1.40|
|2011 - Mat Latos||6-11||22||22||0||0||0||0||132.2||124||63||57||11||46||125||3.87||1.28|