Reconciling Disappointment, Part 6

Position: Shortstop

2011 Innings breakdown: Paul Janish - 51%

Edgar Renteria - 43%

Zack Cozart - 5%

Chris Valaika - 1%

Todd Frazier - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average shortstop batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Janish - arbitration eligible (1^st arb year)

Renteria - free agent

Cozart - not yet arbitration eligible

Valaika - not yet arbitration eligible

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Brodie Greene - age 23, 775 OPS at A+, AA

Miguel Rojas - age 22, 641 OPS at Rk, AA

Kris Negron - age 25, 607 OPS at AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -2

Brief summary of 2011: Ye gods. Paul Janish hearkens the days of yesteryear, when the good-field/no-hit shortstops were a respectable part of a balanced team. That's not a compliment. Win Shares doesn't get a whole lot of play here, or anywhere, nowadays. It's a metric with a very low replacement value level, which is therefore useful for producing at least one shock-value nugget: Win Shares tagged Janish as having negative value with the bat this year, something that almost never happens for in-the-field regulars. Another way to put it: Renteria was no great shakes, hoisting an OPS of 654 with him. Yet he represented a 1.5 RC/G upgrade over his counterpart.

Way too early knee-jerk outlook for 2012: Zack Cozart played in eleven games for the Reds last year; 38 plate appearances. Encapsulated in those games is the sole source of optimism for the position next year. Parents of small children or those who have not yet consumed enough mind-altering pharmaceuticals to still recall their pre-school age years will know the Sesame Street game in which three similar objects are contrasted with a fourth, non-similar object. The game is so easy; I totally nail the right answer every time. Anyways, Paul Janish now has four seasons of record in MLB-land. His OPS+ marks: 37, 60, 93, 43. Which one doesn't belong? Now that he's in danger of being paid real dollars, he's also in danger of not being paid at all. Put the over/under on his future MLB at-bats at 100...if they're with the Reds, they'll be slightly better than the 2011 level, but only because he's nearing an semi-absolute floor. Still not the answer. Renteria is out the door, of course, but his trendlines are clear: also not an answer. Regarding Cozart, I've got nothing. He provides hope, however long the odds.

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