Reconciling Disappointment, Part 3

Position: Right Field

2011 Innings breakdown: Jay Bruce - 93%

Chris Heisey - 5%

Fred Lewis - 1%

Jeremy Hermida - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
574	82	146	26	2	31	95	8	7	68	155	.255	.338	.470	.808

BABIP	Contact Rate	Walk Rate	Batting Eye	SBO	RC/G
.297	73.0%	10.4%	0.44	9.5%	5.45

2011 Composite NL average right field batting line (over 650 PA):

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
577	78	156	32	4	21	75	11	5	61	128	.271	.345	.449	.794

BABIP	Contact Rate	Walk Rate	Batting Eye	SBO	RC/G
.317	77.7%	9.3%	0.47	9.7%	5.24

2012 Contract status:

Bruce - signed through 2016

Heisey - not yet arbitration eligible

Lewis - arbitration eligible (2^nd arb year)

Hermida - with San Diego

Advanced minor league depth:

Stephen Hunt - age 22, 795 OPS at A+

Felix Perez - age 26, 643 OPS at AA, AAA

Andrew Means - age 24, 632 OS at A+

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -0

Brief summary of 2011: Bruce didn’t exactly take a step back (OPS+ was just five points lower in 2011 than in 2010), but neither did he take the quantum jump towards superduperstardom that most of us predicted. On the one hand, Bruce stayed healthy all year. On the other hand, his defensive prowess took a significant and noticeable and quantifiable dip. Amidst the ups and downs is the reality that Bruce’s basic peripherals stayed nearly unchanged from the prior year, lending to the possibility that this is exactly who Bruce is, with little more or less to come.

Way too early knee-jerk outlook for 2012: There is still natural upside here, to be experienced as the age curve typically is. However, the chances of Bruce ever being league MVP probably need to be strongly tempered. Next year is an improvement over this, but not a drastic one. 40 HR is still a possibility at some point, but not in 2012.

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