Hey, I want to write something about the first half too!
Slyde’s earlier post about the 1st Half Nuxhall Star of the Season got me thinking a bit about one of my favorite "junk stats": WPA (Win Probability Added).
I love WPA, even though it:
A) has no predictive value;
B) creates a late-inning bias by definition; and
C) in its most popular form at the FanGraphs website doesn’t include defensive contributions.
While I think it would be relatively easy to create a defensive proxy for WPA, we’re not there yet for what’s readily available. Come as you are, WPA, and share your revelations about the Reds…
So, the drill is this: for each Reds win so far this season, I tallied the three highest WPA amounts from that game, and assigned ½ a win for the #1 WPA player, 1/3 a win for the #2 guy, and 1/6 a win for the #3 star of the game. Conversely, I counted the three anti-stars for each Reds loss this year, and assigned losses in a like fashion. Finally, to rank the players based on these fractional win-loss totals, I used Bill James's Fibonacci Wins stat.
Similar to counting the Nuxhall awards, this doesn't really assess value as much as it tries to tell a story through the lens of win probability. For example, Arthur Rhodes has been The Man in the bullpen, but it's his rare late-inning blowups that tend to show up in this accounting method, rather than his consistent 7th and 8th inning domination.
Without further ado, a table:
|
Player |
Fractional Wins |
Fractional Losses |
Fibonacci Points |
|
Joey Votto |
4.3 |
1.5 |
6.1 |
|
Scott Rolen |
4.5 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
|
Jonny Gomes |
4.2 |
1.8 |
5.2 |
|
Brandon Phillips |
3.0 |
1.3 |
3.7 |
|
Drew Stubbs |
3.3 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
|
Bronson Arroyo |
3.5 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
|
Johnny Cueto |
2.3 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
|
Orlando Cabrera |
3.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
|
Ramon Hernandez |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
|
Jay Bruce |
4.5 |
4.3 |
2.5 |
|
Laynce Nix |
1.2 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
|
Paul Janish |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
|
Chris Heisey |
1.2 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
|
Ryan Hanigan |
1.0 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
|
Mike Leake! |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
Miguel Cairo |
0.7 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
|
Travis Wood |
0.5 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
|
Francisco Cordero |
1.8 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
|
Corky Miller |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
|
Arthur Rhodes |
1.0 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
|
Mike Lincoln |
0.0 |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
|
Juan Francisco |
0.0 |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
|
Matt Maloney |
0.0 |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
|
Micah Owings |
0.5 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
|
Chris Dickerson |
0.3 |
0.8 |
-0.4 |
|
Daniel Ray Herrera |
0.2 |
0.8 |
-0.6 |
|
Jordan Smith |
0.0 |
0.7 |
-0.7 |
|
Homer Bailey |
0.5 |
1.3 |
-0.7 |
|
Sam LeCure |
0.0 |
0.8 |
-0.8 |
|
Enerio Del Rosario |
0.0 |
1.0 |
-1.0 |
|
Logan Ondrusek |
0.2 |
1.3 |
-1.1 |
|
Nick Masset |
0.5 |
2.3 |
-1.7 |
|
Aaron Harang |
1.0 |
3.0 |
-1.8 |
So...if it's not value, what is it? I guess I'd call it the Clutch Leaderboard for 2010. Part of rocking the clutch is getting the big hit in the big spot. The flip side is in not dropping an oh-fer with multiple opportunities. Jay Bruce has lots of big hits this year. But he also has a lot of big outs. The good news for us as fans is that when he puts it all together, the Reds might never lose again.