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Reds Could Be Sitting Pretty With Draft Picks Nex Year

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Bronson Arroyo is probably the Reds best available free agent this off-season, which is why he may not even make it to free agency.
Bronson Arroyo is probably the Reds best available free agent this off-season, which is why he may not even make it to free agency.

MLB Trade Rumors has their projected Elias Rankings as of today up on their site. The good news? The Reds are sitting pretty. The Reds only have one key player who will be a free agent at the end of the year - Arthur Rhodes - but they have 6 others who have options that may not be exercised. Here is that list:

Name Option Buyout FA Type
Arthur Rhodes None None A
Bronson Arroyo $11M $2M A
Aaron Harang $12.75M $2M B
Ramon Hernandez $3.25M ? A
Orlando Cabrera $4M $1M B
Jonny Gomes $1.75M $200k B
Miguel Cairo None None Just Kidding

For those not familiar with the free agent type, it is what determines how many draft picks a team receives if their free agent player signs with another team. A Type-A free agent means the team that lost the player will get 2 draft picks, the first one is the signing team's first round pick (unless that team is in the top 15 picks, in which case it is their 2nd round pick). The second pick received will be a "sandwich round" pick between the 1st and 2nd round. This does not affect the signing team at all. A Type-B free agent will give the team losing the player simply a "sandwich pick." There are caveats all over the place, but the most important one is that the player's current team must offer the player arbitration and that player must decline arbitration.

So, if all of the options were declined and all of the players were offered arbitration and declined, the Reds could be looking at as many as 9 draft picks coming this off-season. That's not gonna happen though. It's highly likely that Hernandez and Gomes will be brought back given their cost and the potential cost to replace them. Also, Harang and Cabrera may not be offered arbitration, because they might accept. And who knows what will happen with Arroyo? His option could be picked up. If it's not, though, it is unlikely that he'd accept arbitration since he will likely make more on the free agent market.

I guess what I'm saying is that the Reds might get 9 picks, or they might not get any. That's how the system works. The good news is that if they are losing a lot of players to free agency, they are in good shape to recoup some picks with those losses.