In this series, we look at the handful of positions in which the Reds have potential openings to fill during the off-season and may tap a fresh face as Opening Day starter, whether by free agency, trade or promotion from within.
Updates: Since we last spoke, Justin Upton rocketed to #3 on the charts (which is effectively #1) after he cropped up on MLB Trade Rumors. CoCo Crisp has fallen off the list as his option was exercised by Oakland. So did Manny Ramirez, who seems to be resigned to finishing his career as a DH. Magglio Ordonez makes his first appearance because I totally spaced on him last time. I also included Brad Hawpe at #8, a possible sleeper free agent pick. Wlad Balentien makes his exit after turning Japanese.
A note about "Speculative Reds Offers": I've set the ceiling high on these. I don't expect the Reds to be serious contenders for someone like Carlos Beltran, but if they were, I've tried to put a non-laughable offer on the low-end. For all hypotheticals, I've tried to posit a deal that would be conceivable, even if you have to squint, for both sides, given a best-case-scenario amount of spending power. Don't pelt me with rocks and garbage over these, they're just a jumping off point for the discussion.
Ranking explained: This list only ranks players on their projected value in 2011 (and to some degree, 2012). Players listed here can be downgraded for their potential to become Bad Contract in multiple years or if they require an exorbitant trade "ask," but we're mostly looking at each player's near-term impact.
Criteria to qualify: Free agents, members of the Reds organization who aren't presumed to make the Opening Day roster OR anyone with a modicum of buzz - in a halfway reputable news source - as a candidate to switch teams this off-season via trade, declined option or possible non-tender.
Current Standings
After the jump.
| Rank | Name | June 2011 Age | Contract Details | 2010 slash line | 2010 WAR | 2010 Value ($) | Average value, last 3 yrs ($) |
Speculative Reds offer |
| 1 | Carl Crawford | 29 | FA | .307/.356/.495 (657 PAs) |
6.9 | $27.4M | $21.3M | None imaginable |
| 2 | Jayson Werth | 32 | FA | .296/.388/.532 (652 PAs) |
5.0 | $20M | $21.6M | 3 yr/ $25M |
| 3 | Justin Upton |
23 | $4.25M in 2011 (Signed thru 2015) |
.273/.356/.442 (571 PAs) |
3.1 |
$12.6M |
$11.9M |
Alonso, Leake, Mesoraco |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | 26 | $6.95M in '11 (final year of arb in '12) |
.249/.310/.450 (668 PAs) |
0.4 | $1.5M | $12.7M | Alonso, Bailey, Heisey |
| 5 | Josh Willingham | 32 | Arb-eligible | .268/.389/.459 (450 PAs) |
2.7 | $11.0 | $11.7M | Alonso, Francisco, Maloney |
| 6 | Carlos Beltran | 34 | $18.5M in '11 |
.255/.341/.427 (255 PAs) | 0.9 | $3.7M | $16.5M | Wood, Francisco, Heisey |
| 7 | Luke Scott | 33 | Arb-eligible | .284/.368/.535 (517 PAs) |
3.1* | $12.5M | $9.4M | Heisey, Francisco |
| 8 | Magglio Ordonez | 37 |
FA | .303/.378/.474 |
2.5 |
$10.1M |
$9.5M | 2 yr/$14M |
| 9 | Brad Hawpe | 32 | FA |
.245/.338/.419 | 0.5 |
$2M | $2.1M | 1 yr/$3.5M |
| 10 | Nolan Reimold | 27 | Arb-eligible | .207/.282/.328 (131 PA) | N/A |
N/A | N/A | Maloney, Klinker, Dorn |
| 11 | Laynce Nix | 30 | FA | .291/.350/455 (183 PAs) | 1.5 | $5.9M | $3.4M | $900k with team option for 2012 |
| 12 | Chris Heisey | 26 | Pre-arb | .254/.324/.433 (226 PAs) | 1.3 | $5.2M | N/A | N/A |
| 13 | Connor Jackson | 29 | Arb-eligible | .228/.362/.316 | 0.3 | $1.2M | $3.5M | Valaika, Dorn, LeCure |
| 14 |
Jonny Gomes |
30 | $1.75M Club option | .266/.327/.431 | -0.1 | N/A | $433,000 | N/A |
| 15 | Andruw Jones | 34 | FA | .230/.341/486 (328 PAs) | 1.8 | $7.4M | $2.47M | 1 yr/ $3M |
*Only 13 starts in LF in 2010.
Also receving votes: Cody Ross, Daniel Dorn, Johnny Damon, Carlos Lee, Marcus Thames, Austin Kearns, Todd Frazier, David Sappelt.