It's looking more and more to me like Homer Bailey will be the odd man out in the rotation. He's been pitching well - 3.13 ERA over his last 4 starts - but then so has everyone else. The Reds have had quality starts from their starters in 16 of their last 20 starts (In case you are wondering, the 4 non-QS are from Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, and Wood). That's somewhat good news as teams that get quality starts from their starters are 152-67 in the Divisional Series. Then again, not all quality starts are created equal, right?
As you know, the Reds won't be playing at home for the first game of the playoffs. Any changes in their playoff situation are now completely out of their hands. In fact, at this point, you are better off watching and rooting for the Padres than the Reds (assuming you don't want to face the Phillies in the first round). The only way the Reds can play someone other than Philly is by the Padres sweeping the Giants and the Braves losing at least one more game. And if there is a 3-way tie, then it gets crazy.