By no means do I want to get cocky, but the Padres are 2nd to last in the league in runs scored per game and 3rd to last in runs allowed per game. This is not a very good Padres team, and with the way the Reds have been playing, they should win 2 of 3.
But as I said last series, baseball doesn't always work the way it appears on paper.
The Reds and Padres split the series in San Diego last year, with one of the Reds losses being the infamous 18-inning game where Aaron Harang pitched 4 innings of relief and Edinson Volquez gave up the game winning home run. Harang also started the first game of that series, pitching 5 innings and giving up 5 runs on 10 hits and 2 home runs. It definitely wasn't his proudest day pitching in his home town. He has pitched well at Petco during his career though. He's 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 5 games at Petco. Given that the Padres haven't exactly been tearing the cover off of the ball, I expect that we'll see more of the same from Harang tonight.
The current Reds roster has hit Kevin Correia well in their careers (.395/.447/.581 in 47 PA), though Brandon Phillips is the only active Red to have homered off of him. He lasted faced the Reds in August when he was pitching for the San Francisco Giants. He threw 6 innings that day, surrendering 6 runs on 7 hits, including a home run to Edwin Encarnacion. The Reds eventually won that game when Corey Patterson tripled in Jay Bruce in the 8th inning to break a 6-6 tie.
Correia is one of those pitchers that isn't all that impressive, but somehow manages to keep starting games. He had some success as a reliever in his career, but is fairly mediocre as a starter. He's had some definite control issues so far this year, walking 19 batters in 30.1 innings, but the doesn't give up too many home runs. I think the Reds should be able to hit this guy, especially since Joey Votto will be back in the lineup.
I'd love to see a win tonight. The Reds are going for their first 4-game winning streak since May of last year. Let's get it done!