With the estimates I came up with here of 759 runs scored and 709 runs allowed, and plugging them into the pythagoran formula, I'm getting an overall expected winning percentage of .534. That would make them 86-75, and surprise contenders in the NL Central.Jinaz is optimistic for this year. Like, really optimistic. He gives a little more explanation of his process here. I have to say, I'm kinda dumbstruck after reading this, as an 86-win season seems straight out of my wildest dreams. But I can honestly say I think his stuff adds up (like I would be able to tell if it didnt).