We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.
I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":
Name | 2009 Projection | 2009 Actual | 2010 Projection | |
AVG/OBP/SLG | AVG/OBP/SLG | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | |
Jay Bruce | .296/.351/.540 | .223/.303/.470 | 574 | .274/.340/.537 |
Paul Janish | N/A | .211/.296/.305 | 188 | .223/.301/.319 |
Brandon Phillips | .263/.313/.431 | .276/.329/.447 | 613 | .269/.322/.434 |
Scott Rolen | .268/.356/.453 | .305/.368/.455 | 482 | .278/.357/.442 |
Joey Votto | .307/.386/.536 | .322/.414/.567 | 502 | .311/.397/.550 |
The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.
Name | 2009 Projection | 2009 Actual | 2010 Projection | |
AVG/OBP/SLG | AVG/OBP/SLG | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | |
Wladimir Balentien |
.239/.312/.444 | .234/.305/.385 | 160 | .244/.316/.431 |
Jonny Gomes |
.251/.356/.486 | .267/.338/.541 | 278 | .245/.331/.486 |
Darnell McDonald |
N/A | .267/.306/.400 | 174 | .270/.321/.414 |
Laynce Nix |
N/A | .239/.291/.476 | 214 | .257/.309/.467 |
Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.
Name | 2009 Projection | 2009 Actual | 2010 Projection | |
AVG/OBP/SLG | AVG/OBP/SLG | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | |
Chris Dickerson |
.268/.360/.454 | .275/.370/.373 | 254 | .276/.372/.429 |
Drew Stubbs |
N/A | .267/.323/.439 | 544 | .267/.336/.390 |
Willy Taveras |
.267/.323/.315 | .240/.275/.285 | 277 | .271/.322/.321 |
To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.
Name | 2009 Projection | 2009 Actual | 2010 Projection | |
AVG/OBP/SLG | AVG/OBP/SLG | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | |
Ryan Hanigan |
.275/.357/.382 | .263/.361/.331 | 344 | .277/.361/.366 |
Ramon Hernandez |
.253/.319/.411 | .258/.336/.362 | 120 | .260/.328/.405 |
Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.
What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?