I'm trying to get some ideas together for the off-season and I was looking through the 40-man roster trying to see who I'd be willing to see traded or dropped and who I think is untouchable. In doing so, I came up with a list. Let me know what you think. Who am I wrong on? Who do you think is untouchable? Keep in mind that I only looked at the 40-man roster, so guys like Stubbs and Valaika haven't been included.
The "Untouchables"
First of all, I don't consider anybody untouchable in the strictest sense of the word, but these are players that would require an unbelievable return for me to budge on the deal. The order within each group doesn't matter so much as the groupings themselves. However, the higher I rank somebody, the less likely I am to make a deal involving them.
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Jay Bruce
4. Joey Votto
5. Aaron Harang
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Jared Burton
8. Yonder Alonso
It really doesn't matter that Alonso is on this list because he can't be dealt anyway. But even if that weren't the case, I'd probably put him on the list in that spot. The top 3 are interchangeable, but I ranked Cueto first because I truly think he's going to be an ace next season. My only real concern with him is injury.
Spotlight player: Aaron Harang is where he is for two reasons. First, he's still a very good pitcher and signed to a reasonable contract. Secondly, and more importantly, he is coming off of a down season and it is precisely not the time to trade him. His value is at the lowest it's been in 3 years. He is more valuable to the Reds than in a trade, so don't trade him.
The Shop-Arounds
9. Bronson Arroyo
10. Bill Bray
11. Edwin Encarnacion
12. Chris Dickerson
13. Francisco Cordero
14. Josh Roenicke
15. Daryl Thompson
16. Ryan Hanigan
17. Micah Owings
18. Homer Bailey
19. Daniel Ray Herrera
20. Wilkin Castillo
Cordero is another player where it probably doesn't matter where he appears. He has a no-trade clause through next season, so I doubt he's going anywhere. But, I'd still be dropping his name and hoping that I can convince him to move if a deal is agreed upon.
Spotlight player: Homer Bailey is on this list mainly because of the volume of 5th starters the Reds have right now. His stock has definitely dropped and I wouldn't be dealing him just to deal him, but with Thompson, Owings, Ramirez, and Livingston in the fold, I think any one of those guys could be shipped for whatever gets you the best value. Bailey might just have the most value because of his age, upside, and a not too far-out belief that a change of scenery could turn him around.
The Get-What-You-Cans
21. Ramon Ramirez
22. Jeff Keppinger
23. Matt Belisle
24. Bobby Livingston
25. Alex Gonzalez
26. Nick Masset
27. Tyler Pelland
28. Adam Rosales
29. Ryan Freel
30. Paul Janish
31. Danny Richar
32. Gary Majewski
33. Norris Hopper
34. Craig Tatum
I don't mean that the Reds should dump these guys for whatever, but many of these guys could help spice up a deal involving a bigger name or add veteran presence to a deal involving minor leaguers. Alone they are not going to net you any big fish, but they can make a deal more robust for the right team. The real point of this segment is that I wouldn't hold on to these guys just to hold on to them. If they can help get a real shortstop or some solid bullpen help, they're gone.
Spotlight player: Jeff Keppinger might not belong on this list, but I don't really see a need to hold on to him unless the Reds clear out the other bench options. I'm not opposed to keeping him as a bench player - I think that is his ideal role, especially batting against left-handed pitching - but I can't see any reason to not trade him if he helps fill a need in the starting lineup. Realistically though, you could switch him with Wilkin Castillo on the list and it's not that big of a difference. I just think Castillo has a bit more upside, especially as a bench player.
Free Agents that I'd go after
35. Jeremy Affeldt
36. Mike Lincoln
37. David Weathers
38. Jerry Hairston Jr.
None of these guys need to be chased aggressively, but I wouldn't be opposed to any of them coming back under the right circumstances. However, if Hairston AND Freel are on the roster next year, I will be seriously disappointed.
Bye Bye Bye
Andy Phillips
Javier Valentin
Josh Fogg
Kent Mercker
Paul Bako
Corey Patterson
Can anyone make an argument for bringing any of these guys back?