Adam Dunn is getting to be one of the easier Reds to project.
The guy has now hit 40 home runs in three consecutive seasons. His OBP was between .386 and .388 in 2004, 2005, and 2007, with only the .365 blip in 2006 as the anomaly. He played in 160 or 161 games in the years between 2004-2006, and only suffered a slight drop in 2007 with 152 games played.
So with that in mind, I'm not going to get too fancy with my projection for Dunn. He's going to be age 28, so I doubt there will be any drop off, and there might be a slight bump in his numbers (although I doubt it). I think Dunn is pretty much a finished project at this point, which is fine, because he's pretty damn valuable as is.
I am going to project Adam Dunn at .268/.388/.550, with 40 home runs, 105 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and 160 games played.
I also think Dunn will get a long term deal (at least 3 years) at some point in the next few months. The Reds front office seems to have enough sense to realize that replacing the offense Dunn gives you would be pretty difficult.
What do you guys think of Dunn for 2008?
Leave your projection for AVG/OBP/SLG / HR / RBI / SB / Games, and add commentary saying why you feel that way, and also toss whether or not you think Dunn will get a long term deal or be traded at the deadline.