From Fay:
But it says here that ultimate success or failure of the 2007 Reds will be tied to Bailey.If Bailey can do for the Reds in 2007 what Justin Verlander did for the Detroit Tigers in 2006, the Reds can be contenders for the postseason.
Verlander, after spending most of 2005 dominating at Single-A and Double-A, went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA for the Tigers in last season. He won the American League Rookie of the Year Award.
In my opinion, the time to bring up Bailey was last June, and the place for him was in the bullpen, not in the starting rotation. That could have avoided the horrendous trade that Krivsky made, and may have been enough to put the Reds into the playoffs. Remember, they only missed by a few games, and the offense absolutely tanked in the second half. Bring Kearns and Felipe back and that doesn't happen so extremely.
This is assuming that Homer would have been ok at the major league level. I think he would have out of the bullpen. You minimize a young kid's exposure that way, and it's harder for opposing team's to get a handle on him.
But the Reds didn't do that, so at this point I think they need to not be half assed about coddling Bailey. They've committed to it, and they need to follow through. Homer needs to spend at least a half season at AAA, and I think it's probably the wrong move for him to do anything this year but make a few starts in September, at the most.
I don't think this is what the Reds are going to end up doing, and if the team surprises like they did last year then I might feel differently. But right now Cincinnati doesn't look like a playoff team and so there's simply no rush to bring Bailey up.
Point him towards 2008.