The Reds blogosphere is having monthly discussions on the fortunes of the Reds (whoo can't wait for that September conversation!), and we met online on Monday night to discuss April. I'm posting Part Three, but you should read Part 1 and Part 2 first. I was very pleased to be able to join everyone this time around since I missed the pre-season discussion.
The participants for this roundtable were:
Before I post Part 3, here are a few random observations of the game we were watching (the meltdown) and a few other tidbits:
Chad RN: I love kicking the Cards around...but there's still time for the pen to blow it.
sweaver: Who pitches the 9th?
JD Arney: Joe Valentine. lol
Chad RN: Rob Dibble.
Joel: Not Graves...it's not a save situation. There is a rule book on these things and Miley sticks to it.
Chad RN: Do the Reds have anyone in the pen that can hold the Cards to 5 runs in the ninth?
Joel: Tom Hume
JD Arney: possibly Don Gullett
Chad RN: Clay Carroll
Joel: Possibly one of the security guards
Chad RN: There's a guy out in the bleachers that throws a knuckleball, I'd bet.
Chad RN: Weathers is one of my least favorite Reds ever. Bottom five at least.
sweaver: There's a discussion point...five least favorite REds ever
JD Arney: least favorite reds, thats a good one
JD Arney: rich aurilia, manzanillo or whatever his name was - you know, the guy who hit himself in the nuts all the time. Jimmy Haynes. Jimmy "Orca" Anderson, as i liked to call him. So many to choose from ...
Chad RN: Aurilia, definitely...and Danny Graves is up there, unfortunately. Pokey Reese.
sweaver: Todd Benzinger, Jimmy Haynes, manzanillo, Aurilia. Anderson.
sweaver: No, Jimmy
JD Arney: Todd Benzinger caught the last out man. I was nine. I think I'll always love him because of that.
sweaver: Grady Hatton. Never liked him.
Chad RN: Nine!!!! I think I'm the old guy here.
JD Arney: Reggie Sanders. I never forgave him for choking in 95.
Chad RN: I love Reggie Sanders.
And now for Part Three:
Joel: Since we are talking about money, what kind of contract should Dunn get (length and dollar amount) that would both benefit the Reds and Dunn?
sweaver: Dunn, I would give five years, escalating, to cover arbitration. After five years, his value will start to decrease rapidly.
Blade: Five years $70 million? Maybe throw in a couple of options.
sweaver: Something like that.
JD Arney: It's amazing how little you hear about signing Dunn to a LTC. I'd be fine with that, no idea what Dunn wants though.
Joel: Yeah, especially since signing young players to LTC is in vogue right now. Do you think the Reds could afford 5/70? I think that is his value, but would the Reds spend it? Especially with griffey on the books?
sweaver: Griffey not on the books that much longer and he's not overly expensive.
Blade: Yeah, Griffey might be gone this year
Joel: Griffey is still on the books thru 2008, plus all of the deferred money
JD Arney: Yeah, the Reds aren't going to get rid of Griffey. I can't see that happening.
sweaver: It's 2005 now....three more years. I don't see trading Junior for pennies on the dollar being helpful. He's not that expensive, and they won't get much for him.
Joel: But that would put the Reds with $34 million locked up in 2007 for 3 players (Jr, Dunn, Milton).
JD Arney: Did you read the Forbes thing on the Reds Joel? They're just spending their profit from last year. I don't see the payroll going up anymore unless there's more revenue. The Reds were fifth in operating income last season. They made $22.6 million last year. You can check it out here: http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2005/04/06/05mlbland.html.
sweaver: You don't have to pay Dunn $14 mil for 2007. You escalate it: $6M, $8M, $10M, etc
Joel: To get $70 million over 5 years, you'll have to get closer to $14 million than that. Otherwise, you'll have him making almost $20 mill in the last year of the contract.
sweaver: I don't think, this early in his career, he actually averages $14 M over the next five years
JD Arney: I'm holding out hope that Milton can be dealt at some point. I'm fine with locking up Dunn until he's 30 or so. I think that should be a primary goal for the Reds.
sweaver: I suspect Dunn will fade quickly after age 30
Blade: I don't know, he has the eye. That seems to be what keeps the good hitters going through their 30s
Joel: I think Dunn definitely has the eye. I just think his swing is too long
sweaver: And a long swing becomes a bigger problem as you get older
Joel: Agreed. It'll slow down (much like Griffey) and then he'll have more holes.
sweaver: Dunn will also lose his foot speed quickly, he's so big and he's already an OF liability.
Blade: Does anyone think dealing Dunn might be a good idea?
sweaver: No, can't get value.
Joel: I don't know if you could ever get enough for dunn to make it worth it
Blade: you think?
sweaver: Not for four or five years, anyway.
Blade: You're probably right
Joel: Not that he is priceless, but his age, cost, and talent make it hard to match with a package or player.
sweaver: Who would you take for Dunn? I bet nobody would give it up.
JD Arney: Josh Beckett, maybe.
Blade: Good point, Shawn.
Joel: The only thing I can think of is a package similar to what the Padres gave up for Giles (Perez and Bay) but even the Pirates got lucky with that one.
sweaver: Mark Prior? Rich Harden? Dontrelle Willis? Those guys won't be traded. Not for Dunn or anyone.
Joel: That's why Dunn needs an LTC. They'll never get enough for him, especially when it gets to a walk year.