Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA numbers for 2005 to subscribers, and I thought I'd look at a few of the interesting numbers. The biggest thing to keep in mind with these is that PECOTA is a pretty conservative forecasting tool.
Adam Dunn: .270/.395/.562
PECOTA loves Adam Dunn. LOVES him. Dunn's chance of collapse is 2.4%, the lowest of all hitters, and he has an 86.5% chance of improvement, the highest of all hitters.
That's a ridiculous amount of power out of those four.
Not a huge difference, but I'd really like to see Lopez given a real chance. Aurilia might prove me wrong, but he looks like a backup to me.
And just for kicks:
Barry Larkin: .270/.341/.384
Pitching wise there's nothing terribly notable, except that PECOTA really isn't a fan of any Reds pitchers.
I'm really looking forward to the 2005 Baseball Prospectus. I started buying it a couple of years ago and, for me, it's become a bellwether for Spring. It'll be interesting to see how hard they are on the Reds for their offseason expenditures.