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2005 PECOTA

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Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA numbers for 2005 to subscribers, and I thought I'd look at a few of the interesting numbers.  The biggest thing to keep in mind with these is that PECOTA is a pretty conservative forecasting tool.  

Adam Dunn:  .270/.395/.562

PECOTA loves Adam Dunn.  LOVES him.  Dunn's chance of collapse is 2.4%, the lowest of all hitters, and he has an 86.5% chance of improvement, the highest of all hitters.  

Austin Kearns:  .286/.388/.500
Wily Mo Pena:  .281/.351/.528
Ken Griffey Jr.:  .265/.363/.506

That's a ridiculous amount of power out of those four.

Felipe Lopez:  .255/.333/.410
Rich Aurilia:  .247/.307/.369

Not a huge difference, but I'd really like to see Lopez given a real chance.  Aurilia might prove me wrong, but he looks like a backup to me.

And just for kicks:

Barry Larkin:  .270/.341/.384

Pitching wise there's nothing terribly notable, except that PECOTA really isn't a fan of any Reds pitchers.  

I'm really looking forward to the 2005 Baseball Prospectus.  I started buying it a couple of years ago and, for me, it's become a bellwether for Spring.  It'll be interesting to see how hard they are on the Reds for their offseason expenditures.