I saw a link to this article on C. Trent's blog and if true, I am again impressed. I'm not gonna lie, I was kind of expecting the Reds to use the Duran signing as proof that they were committed to spending on international players without actually consistently doing so, but between this apparent signing as well as the rumors that they're very much in the mix for Inoa, it looks the Reds are very much for real.

Rodriguez rates as the clear second best overall prospect and the best hitting prospect in this class of internationals. Duran, had the Reds not found a loophole in the rule and signed him, likely would've slotted just behind Rodriguez as the third best overall prospect and second best hitting prospect. Michael Inoa, the Dominican pitcher the Reds are battling the Rangers and A's (among other teams) for, is the consensus top prospect. Could you imagine if the Reds managed to land Inoa along with Duran and Rodriguez? That's one hell of an influx of talent to your farm system for a total money commitment about equal to a year of Corey Patterson and what we ended up paying Mike Stanton. We obviously won't know anything for sure until July 2nd, but if the Rodriguez deal is indeed done, that's something to get excited about as a Reds fan. Here's the blurb on Rodriguez from the article:

2. Yorman Rodriguez, CF, Venezuela: Yorman Rodriguez has been touted as the top position player in this class for some time. His selling point is a rare combination plus-plus speed and plus-plus raw power. He’s a five-tool talent with an outstanding frame, athleticism, and defensive tools, but like most July 2nd hitting prospects, he gets a wide range of reviews on his ability to hit.

The common refrain on a raw bat are heard with Rodriguez: lunges at the ball, trouble identifying breaking pitches, trouble with high level stuff, questionable approach, and 5 o’clock power (batting practice only). Some players grow out of it, some never adjust, so the team that gets Rodriguez believes in his ability to make adjustments.

He has all the elements of a star centerfielder. He’s been compared to Miguel Cabrera for his powerful bat and Venezuelan bloodlines, but more athletic comparisons like Cesar Cedeno, Eric Davis, or a right-handed hitting Carlos Beltran seem more apt. That being said, Rodriguez, or any of the hitters below him, could go to the GCL and hit .180 for three seasons and make everyone look stupid, but those kind of comparisons let you know why teams will pay him and that the tools are for real.

There are rumors that since his agent has stopped shopping him around that a deal has been struck and the Reds are rumored to be that team—another team new to being a major player on the international scene, spending $2.0 million in March on 16 year old power-hitting OF Juan Duran, and have already spent $3-4 million this season on pre July 2nd prospects. The Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, and Cardinals are all heavily interested and Rodriguez figures to get a bonus between $2.5 million and $3.0 million, which would top Miguel Cabrera’s $1.9 million bonus in 1999 as the highest in Venezuelan history.

Now, don't get me wrong here, Volquez has been absolutely tremendous. I think he's surpassed any expectations that anyone has had for him, and he's shown that he can be a pretty badass pitcher even without great control. But I miss Josh Hamilton. I miss rooting for him, sure, but I really miss him on the field. While we continue to enjoy the fine "contributions" of Corey Patterson, Josh Hamilton has been perhaps the most valuable player in the AL so far.

His April stats? .330/.379/.591. 6 homers, 1 triple, 10 doubles, 16 runs, and a major league leading (by six!) 32 RBIs (Encarnacion and Griffey are tied for the Reds lead with 15). 11 walks, and just 13 strikeouts. And he's hitting .346 against lefties and has played in every single Rangers game so far. The only area that he hasn't been spectacular? Well, he only has one assist so far, but I suspect that might have something to do with nobody running on him.

I appreciate what Volquez has done, but I can't help but be really sad that we're missing what Hammy is doing. We all saw the insane amount of talent he had. This isn't a hot month, this is Josh Hamilton. Surely I can't be alone in missing him?

The Always Useful Ken Rosenthal

The other Tampa Bay beat writer named Marc, Marc Topkin, says it's a 6-year deal worth $17.5 million. The Rays hold a 2014 option, and a two-year option for 2015-2016. If all the options are picked up, the total value of the deal comes to 9 years, $44 million -- giving the Rays cost-certainty for the next six and then a shot at Longoria's first three free agent years for a total of $26.5 million. Even if Longoria doesn't end up as the superstar that almost everyone thinks he's a lock to become, this is still going to be a good deal for the Rays. And Longoria benefits, because he's banked $17 million and likely quite a bit more after just six games in the majors.

I add this because the one prospect who is almost unanimously regarded as superior to Longoria is our own Jay Bruce, who is currently toiling in the minors with a .935 OPS because we wish to delay his arbitration and free agency by a year. This, of course, while we get to watch the Corey Patterson show (for $3 million!). Now that the precedent has been set, can anybody see any reason why the Reds shouldn't get on this, extend Jay Bruce, and have him up in the majors now as well as the next decade?

Belisle and Ross will both start the year on the DL, along with Gonzalez. Taking their places are Bako and Lincoln. In terms of good news, Votto is sticking around and starting.

The Fay:

Starting lineup:
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Paul Bako/Javy Valentin C

Bench
Ryan Freel INF/OF
Juan Castro INF
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Norris Hopper OF

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Josh Fogg
Edinson Volquez

Bullpen
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Todd Coffey
Kent Mercker
Jared Burton
Jeremy Affeldt
Mike Lincoln

DL: SS Alex Gonzalez, C David Ross and P Matt Belisle.

We've gotta clear 3 spots on the 40 man for Lincoln, Cueto, Bako, Patterson, and Mercker, so that could get interesting. My guesses on who we dump there: Hanigan, Coutlangus, and Drew T. Anderson. Tyler Pelland and Ramon Ramirez also appear to be possibilities. Cutting Stanton and losing Capellan cleared up two spots already.

Rate your level of satisfaction with the roster.

Fun note: I have no idea how to work these fancy new "FanPosts", leading to my work looking moderately retarded. If only pressing enter actually meant something...

From MLBTR:

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer is hearing a rumor that the Reds are "actively seeking a catcher."  He speculates that Ryan Freel could be trade bait.

Fay's note conveniently gels with some info from a Jeff Brantley radio appearance that a reader passed along.  Brantley reportedly said the Reds have been scouting the Rangers' Gerald Laird.  On a not necessarily related note, Brantley also mentioned that they may look to trade Matt Belisle.

MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan recently wrote that the Rangers don't intend to trade Laird despite some interest.  On the other hand, Jon Daniels admitted in Sullivan's article that he wouldn't turn a deaf ear to anything.  Laird is set to be the Rangers' starting catcher this year.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia would take on a smaller role or try Triple A.

The Reds could also consider trying to acquire San Diego's Michael Barrett, who has played under Dusty Baker with the Cubs.  Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez may also be available.

I'd be okay with moving Freel and his contract despite the fact that I think he's gonna rebound with a .360 OBP and his usual speed/defense/versatility/multiple DL trip contributions. I think the backlash towards him has been thoroughly excessive, but he's not an integral part of the team. Not sure that we could move him for what we want at catcher or not, but it's worth a shot.

Of the catching options mentioned, I'd be opposed to Laird, given that he's up the same alley as David Ross (strong defender, weak hitter), except I think Ross is a better player than Laird anyways. Barrett is an interesting option, and I think his bat would play well, but he has a poor defensive reputation and he's kind of a dick, and if we don't give up Freel in a deal to get him, he's making a solid chunk of change (I think around $5 mil this season). Ramon Hernandez is the most expensive option available, but he's not a bad defender and I think his bat will rebound from last year. He'd likely cost Freel and a solid prospect (I'd say anyone after the Stubbs/Frazier/Mesoraco tier would probably be the asking price), and he's due something like $17 million over the next two seasons, so he'd take a lot of money that we're probably not willing to spend.

The Belisle note is interesting as well. If the Reds can acquire a solid major league piece for Belisle, I'm all for it. I think Belisle is a dime-a-dozen type player if he's relegated to bullpen use and I'm not convinced he's gonna be anything more than a little below-average as a starter. That said, the Reds are gonna need pitching depth this season, so it might be wise to keep him around so we don't have to see Tom Shearn again. Personally, I'd take a run at Reggie Willits from the Angels, but I get the feeling Krivdawg is content with his current CF options and wouldn't want to acquire a potential leadoff-hitting CF actually capable of filling the role successfully.

Either way, I think we see another move before the season starts.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/265719.html

The international signing period is still four months away, but the Reds have already made a big splash in the Dominican Republic, giving a $2 million signing bonus to 16-year-old outfielder Juan Duran, a player who many thought would not be eligible to sign until July 2.

"We've scouted him extensively," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said. "We had not thought he was eligible until this coming July 2. But we found out he was eligible, and when we did we were able to react. (Assistant general manager) Bob Miller and (director of Latin American scouting) Tony Arias deserve the credit on this one, because Bob was going over guys we were preparing for this year's signing period, and he said, 'You can sign this guy right now.'

"We did not know that, but when we found that out, we were able to go get him because of the work Tony has done. He compares favorably to this year's high drafts."

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

Duran's birthday is Sept. 2, 1991, making him a 16-year-old who seemed to have barely missed the cutoff point to sign during last year's international signing period, and it appeared he would have to wait until the commencement of the 2008 period to sign. However, the rules state that for an international player to be eligible to sign, he must be 16 years old at the time of the signing and turn 17 years old by either Sept. 1 or by the end of his first professional season.

Players signed during the international signing period are not eligible to play that same year, so their first professional season comes the following calendar year. For example, a player signed during the 2007 international signing period would have his first professional season be the 2008 season.

The Reds realized that they could sign Duran if they assigned him to their 2008 roster in Billings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where the regular season ends on Sept. 5. Since Duran will turn 17 before the end of the 2008 Pioneer League season, he was eligible to sign before the 2008 international signing period and was eligible to sign back on his birthday last year.

One American League international scouting director said that he had Duran in for a workout as recently as last month.

"I think it caught everybody by surprise," he said. "Even his agents were promoting him as a July 2 guy. He really doesn't follow the July 2 cutoff for this year. I guess we all thought that, with the Sept. 1 cutoff in mind, we all figured he was eligible this year instead of last year."

Duran, who bats and throws righthanded and checks in at roughly 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, likely will not play a game this year in the PL, however, where at 16 years old he would be by far the youngest player in the league. The Reds cannot assign him to the Gulf Coast League, since the GCL season ends on Aug. 27, so sending him to the GCL would void his contract.

Buckley and Arias were both with the Blue Jays when the team drafted outfielder Alex Rios as an 18-year-old with the 19th overall pick in the 1999 draft.

"He compares favorably, only he's bigger and stronger at this age than Rios was," Buckley said. "He's more physical, and he has shown some of the same feel for hitting that Alex displayed.

"We don't have a second-round pick this year so we wanted to be creative and get more talent any way we can."

The $2 million bonus that Duran received was $500,000 more than the Red Sox gave to Dominican third baseman Michael Almanzar, who received the highest bonus of the 2007 international signing period. In 2006, the Giants gave Dominican first baseman Angel Villalona that year's top bonus at $2.1 million. It is the highest international bonus in Reds history, and tied for the third-largest signing bonus given to any player in club history.

Arias said that Duran was one of the Reds' top targets for July 2 before they realized within the last week that they could sign him.

"His body and offensive ability stick out like a sore thumb," Arias said. "In batting practice, he was just hitting them over the trees in our complex, hitting them out to center and right-center field. You can tell just tell from the way the ball jumps off his bat.

"I've never seen a 16-year-old with this type of ability. I talked to some people in the Dominican Republic who crossed paths with Vladimir Guerrero at that age, guys who have been scouting in the Dominican for more than 20 years, and they said they've never come into contact with a bat like this. He's got 80 power potential (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and just gets tremendous loft. In my opinion, in terms of his bat and his body, he's a better overall package than Angel Villalona. We wanted to change the perception in the baseball industry that Cincinnati is a cheap organization. We want to get back to being the Big Red Machine."

Another AL international scouting director said his team was also interested in Duran.

"We liked him," another AL international scouting director said. "We saw him as a corner outfielder, big, long-limbed, real bat potential. He's definitely a guy a lot of people liked."

One National League international scouting director compared Duran's body to that of a young Juan Gonzalez.

"He might end up being in center field because he's a plus runner. It's all going to come down to how big he gets and if he slows down," the scout said. "He's going to put on some weight, so whether he retains that speed will tell if he ends up at a corner.

"He's got some bat speed, and the power will come from the bat speed, but it all comes down to how thick he grows."

The same NL international scouting director also noted that Duran has been bothered by an elbow problem--which Arias said might have something to do with Duran having grown six inches in the past year--and that Duran only started throwing as far as 40 feet last month.

"He went to a tournament in Puerto Rico in the winter, and he didn't throw there. I saw him in February, and all he did was hit. I don't know what the up-to-date situation with his elbow is, but maybe they already checked him. Was he worth that kind of money? I guess he was to the Reds because they think he's an impact guy, but to me, I don't think so."
One AL international scouting director called him "one of those guys who don't come around very often."

"He's got all the tools," he said. "He's a pretty good player, very advanced for his age. I think it was a good investment. He's a good athlete, he has above-average power right now and he has a chance for 80 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale). He demonstrated every ability that you like to see in a kid. He's a very outgoing kid, good swing. There's no doubt about his approach, bat speed and power . . . he has all the common denominators you like to see, good balance, rhythm and a pretty good idea of what to do at the plate.

"If he has to go to a corner (outfield position), he certainly has the power to go there. But right now I'd give him every opportunity to play center field because he's light on his feet and has a good idea how to play out there. He's probably 6-foot-6, 195 pounds, somewhere in that area, so he could gain a whole 40 pounds with no problem. You look at this guy, and you hate to compare guys to major league players, especially at his age, but he could be a young Dave Winfield in the making."

I, for one, am shocked that the Reds were the ones to not only find this loophole, but also the ones to spend $2 million on a player. Hopefully it's the beginning of a significant trend, and either way, I'm pretty excited that the Reds have their own Villalona/Tabata/Martinez/Triunel type to overhype.

I figure some of you know by now, but I haven't seen mention anywhere around here and this is fairly relevant to our own news-gathering and the like. The always-polarizing C. Trent Rosencrans, formerly of the Cincinnati Post, has been hired as the online beat writer for 1530 Homer, and as such, shall continue his (in my opinion) highly useful Reds coverage for us as he did last season. On top of that, he'll also be covering the Bengals and various college teams from the area. I know some of you dislike him because of the gigantic sticks lodged in your respective asses, but I'm absolutely pumped that I don't have to count on Fay the Generally Useless for my Reds updates this season.

His new blog: http://www.1530homer.com/pages/ctrent.html

Baseball America is releasing the NL first this year, meaning we get the Reds list about two months before we did last year. Here's the top 10, with a quick summary of each guy from me:

1.      Jay Bruce, of - The best prospect in baseball -- and it's not close. Bruce does everything well and JJ Cooper sees him as a future hall of famer.
   
2.     Homer Bailey, rhp - Though he struggled in the majors last year, he still projects as an ace-level talent. It may take a few years for him to adjust, as he's still pretty raw, but anyone who doubts him now is probably gonna feel pretty stupid in 2010.
   
3.     Joey Votto, 1b/of - Though Votto is unlikely to be a perennial all-star, I like him as a consistent .850+ OPS guy in the majors.
   
4.     Johnny Cueto, rhp - More polished than Homer and likely to make a major league appearance at some point next year. He's presently tearing up the Dominican Winter League as well.
   
5.     Drew Stubbs, of - His bat really came alive the last month of last season, and his defense was already elite. If the hitting improvement is real, Stubbs is gonna need to change his name to Studds.
   
6.     Devin Mesoraco, c - Didn't do much in the minors this past year, but he was battling injury and still showed off his nice tools. He's nowhere near the majors.
   
7.     Todd Frazier, ss - Personally, I like Frazier more than both Stubbs and Mesoraco. He's not gonna stick at SS, but I think he'll be an impact bat at 3B. I expect we'll see him in the majors by the middle of 2009 as well.
   
8.     Juan Francisco, 3b - Huge raw power, huge lack of plate discipline, huge arm, and huge amount of strikeouts. I like Adrian Beltre as a comparison for him, personally.
   
9.     Josh Roenicke, rhp - He's got a fastball that runs into the high-90s and some dirty secondary stuff, and he's a converted outfielder so he hasn't been pitching long. He's a future closer, in both mine and BA's opinions.
   
10.     Matt Maloney, lhp - Not as good as the numbers look following his trade to the Reds, but he should be a decent back of the rotation starter and he's close to major league ready right now.

I can't share everything said in the scouting reports or the chat, but I think I could answer any specific questions about the system that you might have, either through BA or through my own knowledge.

Now that I've had some time to reflect on the season (read: I'm bored as hell at the moment), I'm gonna toss out some random, possibly inane, possibly enlightening thoughts on the Reds year. It shall be glorious and you shall all be better after reading it.

First off, I'd like to eat a little bit of crow. Norris Hopper, I was wrong about you. I still don't want you starting, but you've shown that you can get your job done pretty damn well at this point, and I'd be pleased with you as a 4th OF next season. I don't know if I like you yet, but I may be getting there.

Now that I ate a little crow, I'd like to take a little credit for this. Burton is a perfect example of the kind of pickups Wayne should be making with great regularity to improve the bullpen, and hopefully Burton's success will allow him to realize that. Not every young guy with great stuff works out, but I'd sure as hell rather be giving them a shot than old guys with no stuff. Which is why I think Josh Roenicke should be in our bullpen to start off next year, and why I think Pedro Viola and Carlos Guevara deserve very long looks.

Speaking of Roenicke, Viola, and Guevara, I just can't help but be a little excited by the Reds farm system these days. It's gonna have four top-25 prospects when BA's list comes out, and while it's not very deep yet, it's definitely improving. Toss in a young nucleus on the major league squad, and this team should be going places in the next couple of years. Should be.

I'm not worried about Homer Bailey. He wasn't impressive in most of his outings coming up, but he showed flashes of some dominance and it wasn't difficult to predict some struggles with command given how raw he was. Expectations on him were too high to begin with, but he'll live up to them eventually -- just probably not until 2009. I think something like 180 innings of 4.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP baseball is probably a reasonable expectation, with a few outings in there that let you know he's gonna be a good one.

I hate to say it, but I'm still not sold on Josh Hamilton. He's got crazy talent, but until he shows he can use it for an extended period of time, I'm going to remain a little shaky on him. If he's healthy then he'll be great, but I'm not sure he'll ever be particularly healthy. Something like 110 games of .270/.345/.500 hitting is what I'm expecting out of him next year.

I'm glad to see that the tides are finally turning on Adam Dunn. If Marty is really in Dunn's corner now, then I think we can expect most of the rest of the media to soon follow. And when the media starts focusing on what he does well instead of what he does not, the fans who haven't already will come around as well. I might be unusually optimistic here, but I think we're gonna lock Dunn up long-term.

Jay Bruce deserves to be this team's starting CF next season (with Hamilton in RF and Dunn in LF). For that to happen, Griffey needs to be traded. I wish I could say it's been a nice run with Junior, but it really hasn't. Let's ship him out for a live arm or toolsy bat and move on. As for Bruce, he's going to be absolutely exceptional. I have not seen a reputable source that doesn't think he'll become anything other than a superstar, and the stats as well as his attitude back that up. For those of you who aren't excited about him, get excited. For those of you who are excited about him, get more excited. The last hitting prospect with as much talent as Bruce (other than Justin Upton) is our very own Josh Hamilton. I think we're looking at a .930 OPS out of a guy who can play above average defense not just in RF, but in CF as well.

I don't know what the Reds saw in Votto to make them think he was a AAAA player, but I'm just not seeing it. He's not gonna be an all-star, but he's gonna be a very productive staple for us at 1B. I expect him to regularly OPS above .850 for us. As for Cantu, I don't think we should platoon Votto until he shows he can't touch lefties, but if we need to, Cantu's got the makings of a nice bench bat. He can play three infield positions and probably a fourth in a pinch, he's got some pop, and he does seem to be an RBI machine. I'm not sure he'd be productive enough to be an every day 1B, but I'm glad we've got him off the bench.

I can't even decide if Brandon Phillips is overrated or underrated. In terms of fantasy stats, he's a superstar, and he also has great defense. But, at the same time, he really can't take a walk, though I think he's more valuable than statheads give him credit for despite that. It's tough to get a read on him, but I'm glad we've got him either way.

Edwin Encarnacion gave us an OPS up north of .850 and hit over .300 once he came up from the minors, with much improved defense. His power looked like it was coming on pretty big late in the year. Why would we trade this guy? Even if he doesn't smile enough, I think he'll probably be a solid .300/.360/.500 type hitter for us -- and his defense will be above average to very good as well. Also, interestingly enough, I think his little trip to AAA kept him from being super-two eligible this year.

Aaron Harang is just a consistent horse of a man. He took a step up with his hit rate this year, and if he can do that with his homerun rate next year, he'll really be earning that ace moniker. Either way, I'm sure as hell glad we have a guy who can go toe-to-toe with Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, or any other pitcher in the league and still give us a good chance to come out on top.

Bronson Arroyo is a good middle of the rotation starter and will continue to be a good middle of the rotation starter. An ERA just under 4 is a reasonable expectation of him next season, I would think.

I'm not sure if I want to throw out Gonzalez for Keppinger or not, but I'm leaning towards no. Why? Because that means Juan Castro would be our top back-up infielder again. Shucks.

Even though the starting pitcher market is awful this year, I think the Reds should probably try to sign one of those guys who can give an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00. Right now, I'm not sure we have five guys in the organization who can do that if we aren't giving the youngsters a chance.

If I never see Jason Ellison again it'll be too soon. Same with Buck Coats, though I'm sure I actually will see him again. Ellison is arbitration eligible, and I can't imagine he'll actually be tendered an offer, so that's a good thing at least.

Saarloos is gone. I would only be halfway surprised if Belisle was as well.

I'd like to see Hatteberg back next year, even in a bench role. With Votto able to play the OF and Cantu able to play other IF positions, I don't think we'd have too much of a logjam at a single position.

I don't really like our catching situation, but it's not going to improve. Ross should be marginally better at the plate next year, and Javy should hopefully be marginally better behind it.