The 25 Man After The Corey Patterson Signing

by JD Arney on Mar 3, 2008 8:42 PM EST in News Comment 59 comments

Ok, after hearing about the Patterson signing and briefly considering becoming a general Cleveland sports fan (it's been a bad few days for the Bengals too), I started thinking about the 25 man roster and how I have little clue on how it's going to look on Opening Day. Here are, in my opinion, the absolute rock solid, guaranteed to be here players, barring trades or injuries:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
David Weathers
Jeremy Affeldt
Josh Fogg
Jared Burton
Francisco Cordero
David Ross
Javier Valentin
Scott Hatteberg
Brandon Phillips
Adam Dunn
Ryan Freel
Corey Patterson
Ken Griffey Jr.
Juan Castro
Edwin Encarnacion

Ok, so that's 18 players (I'm not going to count Alex Gonzalez because of his injury). I know some might argue with me on some of the above (Castro?), but I don't see any reason to believe any of the above won't be on the 25 man come Opening Day, unless they are injured or traded. Now here are the players that one could reasonably assume will make the roster:

Edinson Volquez
Homer Bailey
Bill Bray
Todd Coffey
Mike Stanton
Gary Majewski
Joey Votto
Jeff Keppinger
Norris Hopper

Any of the above 27 players would surprise me, at least a little, if they were to be cut. And we haven't even discussed guys like:

Johnny Cueto
Josh Roenicke
Kent Mercker
Brad Salmon
Scott Sauerbeck
Paul Bako
Jerry Gil
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Andy Phillips
Adam Rosales

And finally,

38. Jay Bruce

All of the players in the last group either have major league experience, major prospect cred, or have been talked up by Dusty Baker already in Spring Training. Any of that final group, in a normal year, could make the team without shocking me.

I know it's cliche to say after a signing that you expect a forthcoming trade, but I don't see how this roster shakes out without getting rid of some players, or sending a bunch of players to AAA that we all want to see in Cincinnati come Opening Day.

It's amazing how the signing of one player can really put a damper on things. And just wait until they sign Neifi, once his suspension is over and Juan Castro inevitably gets hurt.

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As much as I like Bray

I don't see him making the team right off...

[Insert Witty Phrase Here]

by crolfer on Mar 3, 2008 8:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah you could be right

That's why he's in the second group, I think all of those guys are fighting for spots.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Mar 3, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who thinks Stanton gets the Cormier treatment?

and he is DFA'ed after just 3 innings.

I am now guessing Bailey doesn't make the team. I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Harang, Arroyo, Belise, Fogg, Affedlt rotation. With Bailey, Cueto, EV, Maloney, and Gardner making the best minor league rotation in baseball.

I think Majewski will be DFA'ed, and he will go to the Astros and pitch like he did in D.C.

I am betting Paul Bako makes the team, and Jeff Brantley orgasams every time Bako plays.

The Dusty path to the World Series! (This is not an endorsement.)

by justin0070000 on Mar 3, 2008 8:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

We live in a world where Corey Patterson blocks Jay Bruce from the big leauges.

The only sliver of an argument where this makes sense is to delay the service time clock, a la Homer last year.

by bobestes on Mar 3, 2008 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

service clock

Someone else wrote that if the Reds are looking to compete in 2008, they'd say screw the service cloack and have Bruce in CF on Opening Day. He's their best option this year. If they don't think they'll be competitive until 2009, then it's best to let him start the year in AAA to delay his service time.

2-0 count: one pitch, one zone

by rojosoto on Mar 3, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

25 man roster

starters=harang,arroyo,bailey,fogg,cueto

pen=affeldt,weathers,cordero,burton,coffey,belisle,bray

ross,valentin,b.phillips,encarnacion,votto,keppinger,griffey,dunn,freel,patterson,a.phillips,hopper, castro

stanton and hatteberg dealt before opening day.

by MrTonyB40 on Mar 3, 2008 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If they deal Hatteberg...

..they'll only end up signing Piazza.

(Veteran Presence and he knows the Dodger Way.)

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 3, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

... which will appeal to a whole new demographic.

by ken on Mar 4, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

JD, do you..

..really really really really really really think that there is absolutely no way that Patterson does not make the OD 25-man roster?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 3, 2008 10:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

MLB Trade Rumors thinks he'll make the roster:

The Reds are calling it a center field competition, but Patterson will probably get the gig. This will allow the Reds to keep Jay Bruce in the minors until June and delay his future free agency by a year.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, there's a silver lining.

This move increases the likelihood that Norris Hopper gets traded. And he'd be traded at a point in his career where he might have reached his peak value.

(The same could be said for Freel- about being traded, not being traded at peak value. And I'd be down with that too. I'm not a big fan of Freel's)

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 3, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And I guess Hairston..

..could make Freel expendable.

But Hairston's not gonna make the squad, is he?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 3, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Krivsky a mad genius?

Is Krivsky really just eyeing 2009 as the time to make a run with this team? With all these fringe Major Leaguers, it sure looks a lot of them could be flipped for decent prospects (eg. Lohse for Maloney) from contenders. Rest assured, if we go with a rotation that includes Fogg and Affeldt and a roster with Patterson, Freel, and Hopper, we're not doing anything this year. But it does give Dusty a year to get familiar with the team, since he apparently didn't do a lot of that over the winter, and our current batch of prospects marinate in AAA until we trade everybody. Then everyone gets their experience after the All-Star break, Griffey's contract comes off the books, and Dunn is signed to an extension. Arroyo is maybe traded for some outfield help or a catcher and we pick up a good free agent pitcher...

I kind of stopped paying attention to what I was typing. This move makes no sense beyond bringing in an old Dusty guy and placating his absurd desire for a veteran leadoff man. It saddens me so much that the first time in decades that we can commit to a legitimate youth movement, we have two GMs and a manager unwilling to do it.

God this is depressing.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 3, 2008 10:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm rooting for

a 300/350/500 April for Patterson, Mark Kotsay to run into a wall, and a well-timed trade to the Braves.

by ken on Mar 4, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not only we have two GMs and a manager unwilling

to do it, but an owner who can't seem to think outside the old school box. Christ on a Hubcap...this post is the most depressing post I've read in a long long long long time.

Core dude - Dustbag's core is not the core that is the core.

by Madville on Mar 3, 2008 10:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Where's shortstop when you need him?

He could tell us about his new favorite players.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 3, 2008 10:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He'll probably be outraged

Hairston and Patterson will be blocking Dickerson.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He ought to move to Brazil

I've heard it's a place where Hairston never blocks Dickerson.

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 4, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well crafted

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get it...

As the old saying goes..."Bart Needs Dentures"

by chandrathan on Mar 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think this is the year we build.

I am not mad about Patterson. Hairston should NOT be on the team however. There is the possibility that Patterson bats leadoff to start the season but I see that as pretty slim.
I do see Bruce in AAA which is not a big deal. Let the guy get on a tear down there and then bring him up while he is hot, is in midseason form, and is ready to compete and have a non-Alex Gordon/Delmon Yound type year, which by some smarter (or at least more famous) than use he has been projected to have.
I also think Dusty likes to rush starting pitchers a little bit if they are better than the crafty veteran. My worry is not Bailey in AAA But him Cueto and EV getting about 230 innings.
Hatteberg will be gone, if not now def by the trade deadline.
My 25
c- Ross and Valentin
1b hatte and votto
2b bphil Freel(he will get more time backing up phillips and EE than in center)
ss agon(he will start season on 15 day just to get strength before the season) keppinger(starter) castro (dfa after agon is back)
3b EE
lf Dunn
cf Patterson Hopper
rf Griffey

starting 5
Harang Arroyo Belisle Fogg Bailey
'Pen
affeldt weathers burton cordero EV stanton merker

This will change as the season progresses however with the Vets getting the boot or traded. Stanton Castro Merker and Hatte will not finish the season as Reds.
I think Bray and the Majik Man will be called up very early just so Wayne-r can show that trade was not sooo terrible if they perform well in the minors or in ST.
I could see Patterson having a strong year HR and SB wise as a Redleg and it not being such a bad thing as he could be dealt at the deadline or a solid excuse to let Jr walk.
He would make a better stop gap in my opinion than Hopper/Dickerson once Griffey is out of here and lets face it Griffey is not the healthiest so if he does go down we have insurance because I do not want to see Fropper in my OF at the same time.

I think Dusty is a little better than many of us think and It seems as if he has been embraced. If he can make the guys we currently have believe we can win, than we will win. Look at the Rockies last season. Those younger pitchers will all get their shot and once Bruce is up even Dusty wont be able to keep him out of the lineup.

by kennythered on Mar 3, 2008 10:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Now, for something completely different.....

Affeldt will start, until he hurts his arm, because he doesn't have the basic strength to start after years of pitching relief. I give him 100 innings before he breaks down.

Bailey and Volquez will start the year in AAA.

Corey Patterson will be the lead-off hitter on Opening Day, if the opposing starter is a righty.

Bray will start the year on the DL.

Paul Bako will be the number three catcher for the Reds.

Stanton will not be cut or DFA'd.

Predicting Krivsky and Baker just requires the assumption of the stupidest outcome possible out of all the possibilities available, and then knowing they will do it.

I think we should call this practice Moronmetrics.

"I guess I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue!"- Lloyd Bridges

by Lonesome George on Mar 3, 2008 11:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Affeldt throws 135 pitches a start

will he make 100 hundred innings? Why do I see the Reds wasting all of this talent? Why do I see a couple of these players on the scrap heap of what could have been, if they weren't mismanaged, and those who do survive traded in 2010 or 2011, after Jockety is fired, for prospects?

I am generally at my most optomistic about the Reds in Spring Training. Last year I made myself believe that they would have a great bullpen, and that Milton was an excellent 5th starter, and they potentially had the best rotation in the league (which they did for the first two weeks). This year I am pretty much dreding what happens next. I think it is because I finally had hope. With Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, EV, Phillips, EdE, Dunn, Corderro, Burton, Harang, Arroyo, Votto, and even Maloney, this team finally seemed loaded with talent, after 7 seasons of losing, 8 since the magical/tragic 1999 season (which is still a sore spot fucking Al Lieter), and 12 seasons without a playoff apperance, finally this team seems posed to go on a run and be good for a number of years, but I fear that it will be ruined by an idiotic Dusty Baker, impatient Bob Castillini, scared Wayne Krivsky (who I honestly don't think is a bad GM, but I do think he is panicing for his job), and an old fashioned Walt Jocketty. If nothing comes out of the current crop of talent I may just give up, and turn to independent baseball. Would I need to commit a cyber suicide for that?

The Dusty path to the World Series! (This is not an endorsement.)

by justin0070000 on Mar 4, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re

I thought Volquez was out of options?

The opening day opp starter should be Brandon Webb (righty.)

2-0 count: one pitch, one zone

by rojosoto on Mar 4, 2008 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I propose Moronomics.

by Gray on Mar 4, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to make a jab at

supply-side economics, but I really know nothing about economics, so I can't really comment.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Mar 4, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2008 Cincinnati Reds Big Faith Tour

Okay, so Patterson is a completely unnecessary addition to this team. And Hairston, well, no comment. But we most keep hope alive. We must believe that their is a plan here, that having more options will result in the best team without rushing the youth. That Krivsky is not just sitting on his (sweater) hands and being an active GM. That Dusty saw something inside of Corey all those years in Chicago, some unmet potential waiting to break out in a town called Cincinnati, in a year known as 2008.

There is nothing logical about believing or having faith. There is no regard for facts or past history. Faith actually depends on believing in the absence of logic, evidence, or fact.

I hereby proclaim this the 2008 Cincinnati Reds Big Faith Tour.

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Mar 4, 2008 7:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

he probably heard something in Patterson

The Dusty path to the World Series! (This is not an endorsement.)

by justin0070000 on Mar 4, 2008 8:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...Lowenstein..

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2008 8:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was listening to Doc

on the way home from guitar {call it a guilty pleasure listening to stupid sports fans]. He is already bashing Jay Bruce for not being durable and so did "The Angry Guys" this mourning. I think it is a bit premature to already start Bruce Bashing!

I Misremember lots of things

by Zach K on Mar 4, 2008 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It might seem premature to you...

..but there are folks who have lived in Cincinnati their whole lives who know that the long-standing tradition of injured athelte bashing must be carried on regardless of how minor the injury or even if the player is still in the minors.

It's a Shirley Jackson thang.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2008 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

was Hamilton bashed in the media?

I honestly don't remember if anyone berated him for his injuries.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't say.

Slyde, let me have my broad sweeping generalizations, will ya?

They've got theirs. I want my mine.

Oh, and another reason why I think that the Patterson signing is not all that bad is because Patterson is black. So he can play in the outfield without, you know, getting hot and stuff.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2008 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Hamilton...

did anyone else see this?

by Gray on Mar 4, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not even a close call....

The 2008 Cincinnati Reds are not as talented as the 2007 Cincinnati Reds.
And that is including the fact that Cordero is a big upgrade in the bullpen.

Is Josh Fogg an upgrade over Kyle Loshe? I really don't think so.
Is Jeremy Affeldt an upgrade over Eric Milton? He should be, unless he gets hurt pretty soon, so that might be a push.

Otherwise, this team is WEAKER than the 2007 team.
Griffey is a year older.
Pattterson will start in CF. Weaker than 2007; the combination of Freel, Hopper and Hamilton was much better than Freel, Patterson, and Hopper.
Hairston may well start at SS. Weaker than 2007
Hatteberg will probably start at 1st; and he's a year older too. Votto; who know how he fits into the Reds plans now? Baker obviously hates young players, or is too inept to coach or utilize them correctly.
And Bako will be the 3rd catcher. Brainiacs on this team.

Show me the improvement.

"I guess I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue!"- Lloyd Bridges

by Lonesome George on Mar 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

overreacting much??

???

by kennythered on Mar 4, 2008 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That

makes me a little sad.

This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Mar 4, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And your 2008 Opening Day SS...

Jerry Hairston!!!

I Misremember lots of things

by Zach K on Mar 4, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

anyone know

how to get John McCain to stop calling me and asking for my vote? I've received 3 calls from he and his cronies over the last 2 days. Didn't he already win the nomination? Geez.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Waterboard.

No, wait. That's if you want him to talk.

I dunno but it just occurred to me that Red Reporter might have to endorse Johnny Mac by default as both Hillary and Obama are Cubs fans.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hillary's fandom

Depends what day of the week it is.

Is McCain a D-Backs fan?

by Brendanukkah on Mar 4, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hillary

I'm pretty sure she's a Reds/Indians/Astros/Rangers/Friars/Catamounts fan today.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of shifting allegiances

Who would've thought that a Red Sox scout is actually a yankee.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think so

I remember seeing him interviewed on an ESPN documentary about the '01 WS, serving as the counterweight to Rudy.

by ken on Mar 4, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So I guess we know who tHom is voting for

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard McCain interviewed...

..on at least one sports talk show and I cannot remember any particular thing that he said or commented on (or even who he might root for) but I was left with the impression that he was a "real" spots fan. He spoke very clearly and calmly so as not to come across as a "fanatic" in any way and he didn't play up the whole angle of "Hey, look at me! I'm John McCain! Talking sports! Betcha didn't see that comin', eh?"

Not saying that would make him a better dogcatcher than Huckabee. Just that I remember not changing the channel while he was yakking.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it was probably....

his dreamy deep set eyes

Red Reporter- Because every Reds fan needs a place to overreact.

by jacob brumfield on Mar 4, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a Fire!

The signings of Patterson and Hairston make perfect sense to me. For one, they're low on bodies for spring training, so they brought in a speedy left-handed bat to fight for a roster spot. He may be able to help, even if he's not a starter. Also, with Gonzalez out for who-knows, Keppinger is thrust into the starting role. Hairston can compete for Kepp's old role. It's silly to assign these players jobs as starters just a day after their signings; these men have minor-league contracts, after all.

Corey Patterson is a cautionary tale is ever there was one--for Jay Bruce.

by jamesp50014 on Mar 4, 2008 5:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He may be able to help if he's not a starter"

::edited for clarity::

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 4, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

"He may be able to help."

::Edited for accuracy::

I don't see Patterson starting in any event, not as a first resort. How often does a player signed to a minor-league contract end up in the starting lineup a month later?

NOt often.

I say that caution with Bruce is a good thing. If he earns it, let him start. But let's not hand it over to him.

by jamesp50014 on Mar 4, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Rich Aurilia originally signed a minor league contract with the Reds.

I don't put as much emphasis on the minor league contract because of the timing more than anything. What it says to me is that the Reds aren't ready to cut anyone from the 40-man roster yet. And since Patterson was willing to take the deal, the Reds gave it to him. But I don't think it gives him any less chance of being a regular starter.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True that--

It happens, but not often.

I don't think the Reds are handing over anything to Patterson--nor to Bruce.

I do think this may precede a trade, of either Hopper or Freel.

Also, I put Hairston in the same category as Craig Wilson, before he was released. Snowball's chance.

by jamesp50014 on Mar 5, 2008 3:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Go Reds!

Red Reporter- Because every Reds fan needs a place to overreact.

by jacob brumfield on Mar 4, 2008 5:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BTW

Happy Brett Favre Retirement Day, everyone!

Are we supposed to give candlesticks this year? I can never remember!

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 4, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

L'chaim!

Same time next year?

by Brendanukkah on Mar 4, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I always liked Favre for no reason other than..

..because he and Griffey Junior were great at the same time and they were/are both "my age." For some reason that meant something to me. Jordan, Bonds and Elway were a little bit older than me. Peyton, Iverson and A-Rod were all about five years younger than me. But Griffey, Favre, Shaq and Cobain were my boys.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 5, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs