Off day notes and stuff
The Reds are off today and there's not a lot happening that hasn't been reported on this site already, but in case you haven't heard: Ryan Freel is being shopped around, possibly for a catcher, and former Red Bob Purkey passed away.
In other news from the baseball world:
Longoria, Bruce, and Starting the Clock

AP Photo by Al Behrman
The St. Petersburg Times has an article up arguing that the smart move might be to keep Evan Longoria in the minors for a couple of months.
There are lots of rules, procedures and technicalities involved, but reducing it to the most basic of truths:If Longoria is on the roster on March 31, he will probably be eligible for free agency after 2013. If he is in the minors until late April, he won't be a free agent until after 2014.
That means the Rays could either keep Longoria for a month in 2008 when he is just beginning his career and the team is not a contender, or they could hold on to him for an entire season in 2014 when he will be in his prime and the team might just be in better shape to contend.
This is a similar case as to what the Reds are facing with Jay Bruce, though Longoria might be a tad more prepared for the Majors, offensively at least. And while I think a winning season would benefit the Rays more than the Reds, though the Reds have a better shot at the playoffs, I'm pretty much split 50-50 on this subject.
To me, it's all about timing and maximizing the value of your young players. Ideally you want to give yourself the biggest window for success without having to break the bank, if possible. But then again, does it make sense to start the clocks on Votto and Cueto but not Bruce? Or maybe, it makes more financial sense to taper their introductions so your team isn't gutted by free agency all at once. Either way, decisions like this are why Wayne Krivsky gets paid the big bucks, and it's definitely not as cut-and-dry as any of us would like it to be.
Some Stuff About Pitching
- David Pinto evaluates the Reds starting rotation with Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Fogg, and Cueto. Using the Marcel projection system, he puts the 5 pitchers at a combined 4.45 ERA, which would be a drop of 0.41 from last year. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective), there is still about 145 innings to be accounted for. So, I guess it depends on how well those replacements pitch if there is really going to be an improvement.
- Baseball Analysts did some work categorizing pitchers by ground ball and strikeout rates, first with starters and then with relievers. It's an interesting, though somewhat basic way to look at pitchers and you kind of get a good idea of how important these two things are based on where certain names fall on the graphs. I'm sure if Lederer could do a third dimension he would add in walk-rate, but until we're all using hologram computers, a graph like that might be hard to decipher.
- I stumbled upon this yesterday. I'm not sure there's any real science behind it (Greg Maddux threw over 3500 pitches in 1991-1993), but it might be something to keep an eye on with both Harang and Arroyo in the upcoming season.
- I saw this via Harball Times. Chris O'leary, a guy who likes to talk pitching mechanics, breaks down as best he can in short blurbs things he sees for 20 of the best young pitchers. Here's what he says about Homer:
He does seem to stride quite closed, which makes me nervous. I sure hope he gets his glove up and protects himself in the case of a come-backer. Something about this photo makes me wonder if he tips his pitches.
Anyone want to venture a guess as to why he thinks Homer is tipping pitches?
Finally, some quick hits:
- A new Reds blog, Seeing Red combines a little mix of both scouting and statheading. Here's a breakdown of Johnny Cueto's last start.
- Justin posted links to articles at Friar Forecast with the Padres Stathead in charge of Statiness. I don't want to steal his traffic so go there first. And wish him a happy 2nd blogday. Pretty soon he'll be potty trained.
- For you tree hugging hippies, both the Nats and the Pirates are trying to go greener at their home parks this year. But then again, President Bush will be throwing out the first pitch at Nationals Park, so you know they must be clubbing baby seals in the back rooms or something.
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53 comments
Comments
Around the majors
by Red Menace on Mar 19, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bailey
by dougdirt on Mar 19, 2008 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
The only consideration, in my mind, is whether Longoria needs the seasoning. I'm on record thinking that might be the case with Bruce; you'll also see that I think the money should have zero impact on the decision.
The Rays aren't going to the playoffs this year, so the arguement that it's OK to not start Longoria's clock makes some small bit of sense. But as long as they let their pocketbooks make their decisions, they'll never compete. The Rays have finished higher than last once in franchise history (when they finished 4th with a record 70 wins). Their payroll history?
'98 - $48M, 11th in MLB
'99 - $48, 14th
'00 - $64M, 10th
'01 - $76, 10th
then the purge...
'02 - $34, last by $4M
'03 - $19, half of 2nd to last KC & Milwaukee
'04 - $29, 2nd to last
'05 - $29, last by $7M
'06 - $35, 2nd to last
'07 - $24, last by $6M
I know money isn't everything - look at Oakland and Minnesota, for example. But it's pretty easy to see why Hank Steinbrenner is pissed about teams taking his money and not even trying to compete.
Oh, and the Sox have "resolved thier dispute" about paying the coaches in Japan.
Oh, and Tyrell Pryor is a Buckeye!
by sidnancy on Mar 19, 2008 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dusty continues to top himself.
MY WIFE AIN'T NEVER RAN AND GOT ME NO PHEASANT EITHER
by Geki on Mar 19, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's the "Dodger Way"
by Man Mountain on Mar 19, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does this bug anyone else?
by Brendanukkah on Mar 19, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially that era.
by snohio on Mar 19, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I lived in LA...
The Dodgers are on the very short list of Most Hated Teams.
On top of that, Dusty managed the Giants for quite a while. Don't know if you guys out there in the East have noticed, but the Bay Area doesn't really think much of the Dodgers.
Once a Dodger, always a Dodger, we always say (cough Piazza cough) Some people (Jeff Kent) were Dodgers even before they were Dodgers.
Even after all this time, Dusty's still a Dodger.
by bbjones on Mar 19, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget the Penguin
by Madville on Mar 19, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I don't want to steal his traffic"
For the click-frugal, here are the two interview articles:
http://friarforecast.com/?p=326
http://friarforecast.com/?p=360
MB also did a nice piece looking at known sabr-types around baseball:
http://friarforecast.com/?p=366
-j
by JinAZ on Mar 19, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1/3 of the probable starting day line-up
Juan Castro: 231/269/336, OPS+ 57
Paul Bako: 233/306/315, OPS+ 62
"Due up in the bottom half of the inning, Castro, Bako, Harang, followed by Patterson and the top of the order..."
by Man Mountain on Mar 19, 2008 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this is crazy frightening
by boobs on Mar 19, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just a hunch
by Man Mountain on Mar 19, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i will make a bold claim
by boobs on Mar 19, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wanna make it interesting?
by Man Mountain on Mar 19, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
by boobs on Mar 19, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you name it.
by Man Mountain on Mar 19, 2008 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn it
by chesirecat on Mar 20, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
reds trade salmon
The Reds today traded to the Kansas City Royals RHP Brad Salmon in exchange for a player to be named later or cash.
That's the whole e-mail. I hope we get Trey Hillman.
by boobs on Mar 19, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seems odd
by Brendanukkah on Mar 19, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here are...
Couple of catchers in there, and other guys that play other positions.
by jacob brumfield on Mar 19, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the PTBNL
(I may be wrong on this, but I searched for a long time, and could never figure out that we got that player)
by andromache on Mar 19, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe its just jason larue
by boobs on Mar 19, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As of 15 months ago . . .
http://www.redreporter.com/story/2006/12/29/14115/446
Slyde? Slyde?
Here's a funny link from the Google search:
http://www.nyyankeefans.com/forums/lofiversion/index.php?t15447.html
we know the reds can hit.... kinda......but aside from bronson......can they pitch?
Nice, Yankee fan. Question for you: Can you name any Red who didn't play for the Yanks or Sawx?
by Brian B on Mar 19, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They can probably name...
And maybe Homer Bailey, because he's so often compared to Phil Phenom.
by BubbaFan on Mar 19, 2008 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dusty on Johnny Cueto:
here's the link: http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080319&content_id=2444463&vkey=spt2008 news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin
so is he saying he wants Johnny to pitch 330 innings? becaaauuse, i dont think its a good idea...
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 19, 2008 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nah
by justin0070000 on Mar 19, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cy young blah blah blah
Wow, even in the laziest of mockery, I find that distasteful to say.
by andromache on Mar 19, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jayson Stark article on the Reds and Cordero
Checked out his home/road splits lately? Uh, here goes:
Cordero in Milwaukee last season: 1.09 ERA, .143 opponent batting average.
Cordero in towns not named Milwaukee last season: 6.55 ERA, .337 opponent batting average.
"Everyone else looks at that way more than I do," Krivsky said. "I was aware of it. And it certainly stood out. But there wasn't a history of it. The two years prior to that, his road numbers were better than his home stats. So I looked at it as some kind of aberration."
Uh, yeah, because two years ago home was the AL's version of GABP.
Anyone else a little worried? Does Cordero have anything to pitch for now that he's locked up for the next four years?
by Brian B on Mar 19, 2008 11:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mlbtr names belisle
their catchers suck, but I do see two former Reds that I like: Cody Ross and Jorge Cantu. Ross kicked some ass in 66 games (looks like he had some sort of injury that kept him out May and June) with the Marlins last year, throwing up a bingo 1.064 OPS. He's got a career 114 OPS, and he homered in the only game I ever saw him in, so he must be good. For reals, though, florida has cameron maybin coming up, so I would think Ross would be expendable (and a much better option in center than corey patterson). Cantu's platoon possibilities are obvious.
by boobs on Mar 20, 2008 4:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no way on earth
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Belisle
When Dunn's Offense and Defense are combined (see Bill DeWan and the Fielding Bible), he is no better than an average Left Fielder. When you take all 16 NL teams and combine what their Left Fielders did Offensively and then divide by 16, Josh Willingham is the closest to average.
In both 2006 and 2007, Willingham hit over .260 with over 20 Home Runs and over 80 RBI's in each season while playing half his Ganmes in a Pitcher's park. Put him in GASP and those numbers would go up. He is also a Right Handed batter, something the Reds need and made only $385,000 in 2007.
So, with Dunn and KGJ off the books for 2009, the Reds would have over $22 million free to sign C. C. Sabathia. Since MOST people think Pitching has been the problem (and not the Offense that can't score on the Road or against Left Handed Pitching or the below average Outfield Defense) then who would you rather have, Dunn and KGJ or Sabathia and Bruce??
by ctownboy on Mar 20, 2008 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't understand your equation
Bruce is going to be on the team next year regardless of what happens to money spent on free agents.
I think one alternative that no one really discusses is exploring Arroyo's trade value. He salary jumps to $10 million/year next year. Use that savings and KGJ's savings to go after Sabathia to pitch 1/2 with Harang.
by rojosoto on Mar 20, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn and herpes.....??
by Red Menace on Mar 20, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you saying
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how did you get herpes in your basement?
by justin0070000 on Mar 20, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Amazon Prime
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I am still waiting for my Kindle
by jacob brumfield on Mar 20, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harang will also get a jump in pay next year
Lets trade Dunn for sphyillis.
by justin0070000 on Mar 20, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yikes
The more I hear the "burdensome" contract theory, the more I wonder if the Reds should just buy up 5 $20 million/year superstars for one year only just so they'll have all that money available the next year once they're "off the books."
by Brian B on Mar 20, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
freel
by Brian B on Mar 20, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2008 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
crofler's got a pack
by Man Mountain on Mar 20, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
help wanted?
by bigredlatrine on Mar 25, 2008 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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