Josh Fogg To The Reds
From Hal McCoy:
"When Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker and general manager Wayne Krivsky say the hunt continues for starting pitchers, they apparently mean it.
Free agent pitcher Josh Fogg told friends in Denver that he has agreed to a one-year $1 million contract with the Reds.
Both Baker and Krivsky were attending a team party Wednesday night and were not available, but it is known that the Reds have been trying to land the righthanded starting pitcher.
Fogg was 10-9 with a 4.38 earned run average in 29 starts last season for the National League champion Colorado Rockies. It has been reported that the Rockies were prepared to offer Fogg a one-year $5 million contract, but Fogg and his agent believed they could land a multi-year contract.
But that didn't happen and with timing running out and teams forming their squads at spring training, Fogg decided it was time to act and said he has agreed to sign the one-year deal with the Reds.
Most likely he must pass a physical before the Reds announce the signing.
Fogg is the second pitcher from Colorado's staff who is a free agent to sign with the Reds. Earlier this month the Reds signed lefthander Jeremy Affeldt.
Affeldt was a relief specialist with the Rockies last year and the Reds had hopes of converting him back to a starting pitcher, which he was early in his career. But with Fogg, the Reds could strengthen their bullpen by placing Affeldt in it."
Meh.
By the way, I've obsessively read this blog over the past three or so years, and this would be my first ever post. I'm going to try to be less of a passive observer this season, though I doubt I could ever keep up with you wonderful, smart, hilarious people!
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...and Welcome, Lefty!

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
I can only aspire
by Young Lefty on Feb 20, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
If by "astute" and
Geez, do I dislike old G.B.
by Officer Dibble on Feb 22, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
If the signing of Fogg
And Fogg for one-year, $1 million? That's fine.
if this officially
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 20, 2008 8:01 PM EST reply actions
Welcome
It seems like Volquez is destined to start the season in the bullpen. Cueto might be a September callup at this point. The pitching battles in spring training are going to be very interesting. Do these new guys have something still in the tank? Are the rookies truly ready for the Show? And if they are, can they overcome Dusty's perceived veteran bias? Also, I'm pretty sure Affeldt was told he was going to be a starter for us, so it would be kind of a slap to him if he's put in the 'pen and Fogg is moved to the rotation.
In all, I'm bullish on this signing. If nothing else, it gives us a lot of depth, although I would love to see us flip some of these veterans for other parts while letting our young pitchers get a chance to cut their teeth in the bigs.
And hey, these guys (Fogg and Affeldt) were in the World Series last year. That's got to count for something, right? Right?
volquez and the pen
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 20, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
The pen is getting pretty crowded.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really like Josh Fogg...
I'm getting tired of it as well...
by chandrathan on Feb 20, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
by chandrathan on Feb 21, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
During this fight, I seen a lot of changing
In here, there are two guys killing each other, but I guess that's better than 20 million...
What I'm trying to say is...
If I can change...
and you can change...

OMG
The last time this happened, it marked the Red Sox winning the World Series for the first time in 86 years.
Josh Fogg is going to lead the Reds to the promised land!
You've been Fogged in.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
It's another clever ploy
Wayne. A frackin' genius.
So we traded Hamilton for a guy we don't want to start in the Majors? What gives with that?
I smell Corey Patterson in the wings.
by Lonesome George on Feb 20, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
I wish wayne had spared us the heart ache
Cuteo? New nickname?
by Brendanukkah on Feb 20, 2008 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm....
I wouldn't kick him out of bed for eating crackers.
Hmm..
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Heh
I'm still trying scrub my brain of the Mariano Rivera/Carl Pavano smut I stumbled across a couple of years ago. Not that I have anything against gay romance or porn, but Carl Pavano? Yech.
RE: slash fiction
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 21, 2008 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Cracker?
by shortstopv2 on Feb 20, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
can someone delete that
by shortstopv2 on Feb 20, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
Nah. Just let me take it and run with it.
A million miles, a million miles...
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Ooh, link to "Take the Skinheads Bowling
by Brendanukkah on Feb 20, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
I had a dream!... it was about nothing.
One night at about 3am I became convinced that this was the single greatest music video ever created.
It's a good video but having just watched it again, I've concluded that it must have been her lipstick that spoke to my stoned ass that night in '92.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Now that I think about it...
"...got big lanes, got big lanes."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a bastard
by Pops Daniels on Feb 21, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
That's funny
Nice lipstick.
And she DOES have more than a little Lisa Stansfield going on in that video, doesn't she?
by Officer Dibble on Feb 22, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
You laugh
Oh yeah,
Hi! Hello and welcome!
Yeah, whatever. They barely tolerate me.
by Lonesome George on Feb 20, 2008 9:44 PM EST reply actions
no fair !!!
MOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!
so starting rotation
or do you think fogg will be the santos this year?
Long relief/spot starter
I'd say Belisle has a spot locked up.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
then who goes?
by shortstopv2 on Feb 20, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno.
At the time of the Affeldt signing I thought it appeared that he would be penciled in as the fifth starter but only until Cueto or Volquez came up from Lulville. (Affeldt is a hoss but he hasn't started more than eight or nine games since we were all shakin' it like a Polaroid picture.) Now it appears that with Affledt, Stanton and Cordero the Reds might have one of the most expensive bullpens not in the AL East.
And does anyone know anything about Bray's injury/recovery?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
do you really think fogg would be a
I'd say Belisle has a spot locked up?
I saw him pitch 3 times last year. He's big, strong and has some heat. I am a fan of ol' Belizze. I would be thrilled to see him come into his own this year. It could be more important and more impacting than Ceuto,Bailey or Fogghorn Joshhorn.He could be the biggest surprise of the season - I wouldn't doubt it.
Josh Fogg in Great American
49.2 innings pitched
4.17 ERA
10 home runs
23 earned runs
31 strikeouts
13 walks
1.21 WHIP
Most of his numbers (and most of his better numbers) were amassed in 2003 and 2004.
So there's that.
And FWIW, he's got comparable serviceable numbers pitching in Wrigley.
Also- he had surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow following the 2006 season.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions
He seems to be pretty lousy in day games.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
well
Fogg's trade value
I'm ok with having extra starters. Hopefully the Reds contend this year. I don't want Dusty reverting to his "prior" ways and let Bailey, Volquez and Cueto throw their arms off.
by Snake the Jake on Feb 20, 2008 11:43 PM EST reply actions
Lohse and Fogg
thanks for chirping up young lefty
I'll Take It
According to the story
by Man Mountain on Feb 21, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
One year at $1 million
I don't mind the thought of the youngsters getting some more seasoning at Louisville. If the Reds fall out of contention, Fogg likely is a guy they can trade in a manner similar to what they did with Lohse last year.
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 21, 2008 7:21 AM EST reply actions
It's funny how different the money makes it
Agreed, my thought, 'Fogg, ah crap'.......
My thought is that Wayne love competition among his players, gather up a group of guys and let the best man win. We do have a stock pile of rotation worthy arms, and I like that. I also see Wayne making a trade near the end of spring training. Sending one of the extra arms to a desperate team in exchange for some promising youngsters.
Win-win by Wayne in my book.
by jacob brumfield on Feb 21, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
my only problem with competition
Other than that, I have no problem with this signing. I'm not a big Fogg fan (Foghat - yes, Fogg - no), but you can't argue with the cost.
your only problem with competition...
LET'EM PLAY SLYDE! LET'EM PLAY!
by jacob brumfield on Feb 21, 2008 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Do I understand this right?
yep
by jacob brumfield on Feb 21, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
Dusty's thoughts from Reds.com
by jacob brumfield on Feb 21, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions
I like that he's at least implying
by beasleymachine on Feb 21, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Rosenthal
So it's not a done deal?
by pw on Feb 21, 2008 10:02 AM EST reply actions
Rosenthal looks a lot like Waynr.
What about Colon?
really?
I'd take him on a very cheap, low risk deal, but I'd still rather have Belisle in the rotation than Colon right now.
Here
by Pops Daniels on Feb 21, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Not Joe Mays
A pitcher that he compares to is Paul Wilson, at least at a quick glance through the numbers. Look at these comparison graphs from FanGraphs. If you look at them by age, I see a lot of similarities in the rates, especially over Fogg's last 3 seasons. Wilson would have been a very good 4th starter for the Reds, if they had had 3 good starters ahead of him.
I'm not art critic, but I know what I hate
I will state for the record, however, that I think these "veteran" signings will block the young guns all season.
I read Johnnie B Baker's comments posted above concerning Fogg's "big game" ability "down the stretch" to provide cover for him blocking the prospects that Reds fans have been clamoring for.
At this point, it's nearly a certainty that we won't see Cueto until the summer and probable that the reds will be the No Homers when they break camp.
(btw, FVA is owning this thread '87 Hogan style)
Could be one less vet
That stinks!
I read Rosenthal's column in the link; who is Matt Bailey (sic)? Of course he means Matt Belisle, but doesn't anybody re-read their stuff before putting it out there?
2008 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2006. And The Trade is looking even better, as Bill Bray has a sore shoulder again this spring.
by Lonesome George on Feb 21, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Yikes
Though I guess it could open the door for Andy Phillips. (Does four years mostly sitting on the bench count as veteran presence?)
More importantly
Yes, there is that
Though I suspect it's the scouting. I have a feeling the scouting report on Andy says he can't hit the high and away pitch from a lefty. If he learns to do that, his splits would probably return to something like his minor league norm.
Of course, the really maddening thing was that Joe Torre continued to use him as the right-handed half of a platoon, even though he struggled against lefties.
I'm taggin' out, brotha!
But keep your eyes open. (And remember to use your ears. A lot.)
...What are you gonna do when my 24-inch pythons pound out a Matt Belisle diary for you?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 21, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly I like this move
Young Padawan
by Lonesome George on Feb 21, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know about that...
Shit veteran acquistion as the catalyst for trading young prospects for a #3 starter. Ugh.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 21, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I like this move
I've seen some people complain that Krivsky hasn't fully comitted to winning now or winning in 3 years, but it could be worse. I'd venture to say that the Kearns and Co. for Majewski and Co. was a move to lose now and lose in the future.
Brain hemmorage
Speaking of "veteran presence"
You laugh
by Brendanukkah on Feb 21, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't laugh
by Man Mountain on Feb 21, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Does he play catcher?
and old left-handed relievers
by JJ on Feb 21, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Uh Dustball was heard speaking gloriously
I have
by Pops Daniels on Feb 21, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
What is Weathers due to earn this year?
What kind of trade value might he have?
Weathers
$2.75 million next season (plus some bonus money from last year). He's not signed beyond 2008.
He might have some trade value, but I'm actually fine with him in the 'pen right now. If the Reds aren't competitive in July, I'd expect him to be traded.
Fogg update
by pw on Feb 21, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply actions
It's official
by pw on Feb 21, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Gotta love a player who's part Panda
by Brendanukkah on Feb 21, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I also add
I agree
So if you must suck....
Because Dusty can hear you. Damn those clever ears.
by Lonesome George on Feb 21, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
I enjoyed this quote
"The offseason didn't go like a lot of free agents planned," Fogg said
See: Kyle Lohse
Remember at the end of last year how much money people thought these guys would get?
This offseason
by Brendanukkah on Feb 21, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
dave littlefield
So this all makes me wonder
But with camps now open, I wonder what it would take to get Lohse, who would be much better as a #4 than either of these guys (actually, he's a pretty good #3)? Wouldn't $5 or 6M for him actually be better than $4M combined for Affeldt and Fogg?
And there it is...
When asked to consider which of two sad and embarrassing hypothetical situations would "be better," we realize that either would be sad and embarrassing and that in fact, one of them has already transpired before us and we have almost complacently accepted it as "not the worst thing that could have happened."
So this is what happens when for nearly twenty seasons your farm system fails to produce a quality starting pitcher any better than Brett Tomko...
But no more! This 2008 season is most assuredly the last season that we Reds fans must sit and sulk and with our heads hung low ask these ro-shit-erie nightmare baseball questions! For in 2009 we shall have a 25-man roster featuring homegrown talent Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto in the middle of our starting rotation! And we shall raise our gaze and look other fans of other teams clearly in their eyes and say, "Our fifth starter? Well it's either going to be Matt Belisle or perhaps Edison Volquez or if we have to we might go and get someone like Kyle Lohse but to be honest we've already been down that bumpy road and I think it's time to see what Volquez can do before we use him to shore up our pen."
Glory is upon us, Reds fans! Glory!
(In 2009.)
(If we don't trade any of them.)
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 21, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
I really hope you're right
I'd rather see Affeldt as a starter than Fogg
I'm pretty sure that Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, and even Maloney can come close to 4.94!
Affeldt's stuff
The only advantage I see Affeldt having over Fogg right now is that he is a lefty. Right now a projected starting rotation of the following is all righties.
Harrang
Arroyo
Belisle
Fogg
Bailey
Does that bother anyone? It's a big difference (although better) from the 3 lefty rotation to begin the '06 season that included Harrang, Arroyo, Milton, Dave Williams, Picklehead.
by indy on Feb 21, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
For the record . . .
I'm not good with this deal at $1 million or $1. It not like it just saved the team some money to go out and sign someone else who can actually help the team. 12 losses is 12 losses, no matter how much you spent.
Embrace the mediocrity!
Why start a couple of young guys that might be top notch pitchers in a couple of years, when you can have Josh Fogg in the rotation?
Why start a guy who was rated the BEST player in the minor leagues in 2007, when you can play Norris Hopper, or maybe, if we're lucky, get Corey Patterson?
Why worry about bench depth or developing a promising young player when you can carry THREE catchers? Like, maybe Paul Bako? Capturing lighting in jar, that one.
Of course, we'll all know a lot more in thirty days or so, so maybe this is just so much hot air, or cold electrons shot out into the intertubes.
by Lonesome George on Feb 21, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
I've had a soft spot for Fogg
Let me tell ya about..
Oh. Wait. Sorry...
Crolfer, when do you turn eighteen?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 21, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Was your last question
by Man Mountain on Feb 21, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
A good antibiotic will clear that right up.
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 22, 2008 7:57 AM EST up reply actions
Congrats and Welcome.
Way to go and welcome (although you've been here so...)
Now you just need a snappy signature line
by Brendanukkah on Feb 21, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
(In 2009.)
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 21, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
What
by Pops Daniels on Feb 22, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
I like the signing
Loose the hounds!! Glory is upon us Reds fans, Glory!
(in 2009)
I'm glad he seems so happy to be a Red
because he gave up 4 million donkeroos to be with us. Not that he knew that at the time.
And also, I don't know about you guys

I met her in a club down in old SoHo......
by beasleymachine on Feb 21, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
She's built like a steakhouse,
by Brendanukkah on Feb 21, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Here's why the Reds perpetually suck.
I keep banging on this because I don't understand the thinking... have had several people, on the blog and e-mail, tell me that I shouldnt look at a pitcher's W-L record when determining what kind of a player he is. In essence, wins and losses don't tell the story.
Uh, yes they do.
What's the point in playing, if not to win? Is it to lose, but to argue that I pitched well, they just didnt get me any runs? Do clubs win championships this way? The fact that J. Blanton has 42 wins in the last 3 years is somehow diminished, because he doesnt pitch as well on the road as he does at home. The notion that Blanton was 7-5 at home and 7-5 on the road last year is lost on some people.
This is when statistics get in the way of truth. Winning is winning. Give me 14-10 over 9-15. I don't care what any of the guy's other numbers say. The only number that matters is the W.
It's not about Blanton anymore. The Reds don't seem interested in winning this year -- it's more of a test-drive for next year, to see how the kids do -- it's about the thinking of those who would argue every stat but the only stat that counts.
It's utter morons like this in the media that drive the Reds futility, and it's the people like this that have the least willingness to change. Until we oust people like Daugherty from positions of power in the media, the Reds will continue to respond to what they believe the fanbase wants them to do, which is typically what the talking heads tell them. Paul Daugherty is why we have Dusty Baker as our manager. Paul Daugherty is why we signed Josh Fogg and are looking at the likes of Kenny Lofton. Paul Daugherty is why this team hasn't had a winning season in what's nearing in on a decade. I hate Paul Daugherty. I hate Paul Daugherty.
Ha..
So Doc would rather have a pitcher give up ten runs over five innings, but still pick up a win, than have a pitcher that could give up one run over 9 innings (and lose)?
On the surface I would rather have the win as well, but Win Loss records only show part of the story. The other stats are much more important. Regardless of number of wins, the pitcher that gives up the fewest walks, hits, and runs is the one you'd prefer to have!
by chandrathan on Feb 21, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Wins
What's the point in playing, if not to win?
This is a huge part of the appeal of the Win. The stat's nomenclature borrows from the very essence of sport. If I created a very geeky stat, based on WPA or some such, but declared that it had to be applied to a player on the winning team and named it Winner's Percentage, or something, I too could appeal to the high ideal of winning and losing in my defense.
The actual concept of a 'Win' is far more obscure and removed from the gameplay than many stats, such as Quality Start. The disdain for Wins, like so many of the concepts of sabermetrics, is rooted in the desire to 'think like a GM'. As a record of what happened the Win is not terribly bad. But it quickly becomes useless in the world of predictions and hypotheticals.
Wow
FWIW
Aw, who am I kidding?
What if the Reds had acquired these guys?
Pitcher A: 9-11
Pitcher B: 9-18
Pitcher C: 2-7
Pitcher D: 10-16
Pitcher E: 8-18
Those pitchers are a) Fred Norman, b) Danny Jackson, c) Jose Rijo, d) Jack Billingham, e) Clay Kirby.
All were significant parts of world championship teams in Cincinnati.
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 23, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
I hate this
I suppose the root of the problem
"The only number that matters is the W."
While this is absurd both logically and semantically, it has an attractive rhetorical confidence. It seems to boil something complicated down to an essence; an a priori truth from which any argument must originate.
It's the same reason the Barry the Messiah spends his speeches talking about "changing the America you hope to wish to dream for" rather than detailing a three-tiered plan to make universal health care economically viable.
by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
yes but Josh Fogg knows how to win
by justin0070000 on Feb 22, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
im not really sure about this swipe at obama
I say, "Let the young kids play!"
(Actually, for the record, I'm undecided at this point.)
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
pansy
I'm telling ya...

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
he must be standing on a homeless man
real life:
That's what I'm talking about!
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
you don't "steal" a damsel

Speaking of riding the white horse...

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
I hate it when guys hit on their daughters.
Abso-fuckin-lootly,
For clarification;
bush 4ever
If this is a response to me
Obama was on my mind today because I'm working with my rhet-comp students on debates and public speaking. He's an incredibly effective stump speaker, and has beaucoup charisma, but still strikes me as a rather shaky debater. He was a little better last night
I recognize that the modern presidency is largely a figurehead position, but at some point I'm gonna need a little more from him besides "hope" and "change" and "I'm going to sit down with so and so." I don't think its anything shocking to say he needs to come with some more details; in fact, from what I've seen, most political pundits are saying the same thing.
I will say that something about the rock star way in which he is feted makes me a little leery. But that's hardly his fault.
As far as Bush goes, he's not running again, so I'm not sure what he has to do with anything.
by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
my response
if you're curious about his positions or plans, you can find them on his web site. (There's also this 48-page download, the "Blueprint for change.") It goes into great detail, and I'm having trouble getting time to go through it all.
my point is, i think it's unfair to criticize him for not going into great detail when he's on television. his ideas and plans are there if anyone takes the time to learn them. when he's on the stump, he's doing exactly what he should be doing, and that doesn't include detailing his six-step plan for expanding the work/family balance.
I agree with you
The "messiah" bit was a swipe, I admit, but only because I'd been listening to my officemates gush about him all morning. And my class on Wednesday had discussed the rhetorical implications of Michelle Obama's "saving America's soul" speech. (conclusion: they likes it)
fwiw, I've read his platform; that's usually all I do with candidates. If I weren't teaching this stuff this semester, I probably wouldn't have watched many of the debates because they're not really designed for a voter like me.
I do find it interesting, however, that Obama's candidacy has come to represent a changing of the old guard, as Daedalus suggested. Reading his platform, I was struck by how safely it played with the post-1960s Democratic Party songbook. On the other hand, one of his top economic advisors is Chicago free marketer Austan Goolsbee, so who knows what we'll eventually get. It will be interesting to see.
Anyway, sorry to stir the pot in the original post. I'm not really emotionally invested in politics, so I tend to forget that many people are.
by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Vote Ron Paul!!!
As an old-school guy fascinated
Which pitcher would you rather have:
Pitcher A: 13-20, 3.90 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Pitcher B: 16-13 5.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
If you go with Pitcher B because of the wins, you just selected Ramon Ortiz (2003) over Steve Carlton (1973).
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 22, 2008 8:08 AM EST reply actions
NIce work.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
I remember selecting Ramon Ortiz
by Brendanukkah on Feb 22, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
AnalyzeThis!
The so-called observed "effect" of winning (as a pitcher) in baseball are illuminated by all the pertinent "causal" statistics: WHIP, ERA, W/9 innings, etc.
The idea of all the sabermetrics was to identify value independent of "winning and losing"; to find a diamond in the rough, so to speak. Obviously, there are good pitchers on poor teams that have losing records (win/loss) because they are surrounded by a poor team: poor run support, poor defense, bad bullpen, etc.
It's sometimes a fluke in baseball, when a pitcher has a winning record, but poor Sabermetric stats (think Eric Milton, 2004). The causal stats can't be refuted long term, and they will be more telling of a career, than simple variations of wins and losses that "luck" may deliver to a pitcher. If the statistics are reliable, the wins and losses will come, but usually accruing to the team (somewhere), and not always the individual pitcher. "Hard luck" pitchers are on every team; guys who pitch well but aren't rewarded with a winning record.
There is no substitute for winning, but understanding how you get there is something that apparently Paul Daugherty doesn't have a firm grasp on.
by Lonesome George on Feb 22, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Hard luck pitchers
My point is, he still pitched pretty decently last year, and we should expect to see him rebound. And hopefully the bullpen will be more stabilized this year so that Dusty will be inclined to go to them rather continuing to believe that Bronson can throw 150 pitches with no ill effects.
I've just heard people get down on Bronson after his 2007 season because it wasn't as phenomenal as his 2006 season. I still have great confidence in him and am expecting a big year.
by Brendanukkah on Feb 22, 2008 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Bronson
by justin0070000 on Feb 22, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
Bronson
Looking at some of the other Reds:
Harang did not take a loss in a quality start last year. He had 2 starts where he left with the lead, but the Reds lost.
Belisle lost one quality start. He had 3 games where he left in line for the win and ended up losing.
Lohse lost 3 quality starts but never left the game with a lead only to have the Reds lose.
There are other game types that I've left out (games where they were in line for a win, but didn't get it despite the Reds winning, etc.), but I think this is a good indicator of how unlucky Arroyo was last year. Give him the same kind of "win luck" that Harang had last year and he could have been 17-9 instead of 9-15. I wonder how different people's perceptions would be of him in such a situation.
Wow
by beasleymachine on Feb 22, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
I was thinking of Bronson, among others
The problem with writers like Daugherty is that they are sometimes too close to the problem; something like Field Managers and GM's.
Their personal opinion of the player or players clouds their perception of just how good or bad the player actually is.
Dusty is still convinced that Corey Patterson would be a good lead-off hitter, because he "knows" him, and has seen him play. The facts of his lifetime OBP, BA, and slugging percentage, etc., fundamentally refute Patterson's value.
This is the long version of saying that Dusty may be nucking futs over Patterson and other issues, but hey, that what the intertubes are for.
by Lonesome George on Feb 22, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Here's something...
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Hey Boobs,
Red Reporter's resident** stat geeks might find it interesting that his PECOTA post is his new indie site's least commented-upon.
(** Can one truly be a resident of Red Reporter if one resides in one's mother's basement?)
Rosenthal likes the Fogg and Affeldt signings.
General manager Wayne Krivsky, mining the bottom of the free-agent market, secured left-hander Jeremy Affeldt with a one-year, $3 million contract and right-hander Josh Fogg with a one-year, $1 million deal.
"There was no real strategy. It's just the way things played out," Krivsky says. "We're looking for quality guys to bring in at any point during the off-season. Whether it's December, late February or March, it doesn't really matter."
Affeldt, 28, and Fogg, 31, aren't Koufax and Drysdale, but they're major-league pitchers. In fact, both could end up in the Reds rotation, which features only two proven starters, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.
Yet, Affeldt and Fogg are guaranteed only 1/12th of what the Mariners will pay right-hander Carlos Silva over the next four years.
Affeldt, coming off a breakthrough season as a reliever, began the off-season looking for a four-year, $16 million contract, according to sources. Fogg, a winner of 10 or more games in five of the past six seasons, was believed to be seeking a three-year, $21 million deal.
The Reds landed a pair of bargains. Affeldt and Fogg got nowhere near $37 million combined.
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 23, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions
There's some flawed logic here.
The fact that Affeldt and Fogg signed one-year prove-your-worth contracts with a middling team playing in a hitter's park for a combined $4 million should tell us what Affeldt and Fogg are worth. Affeldt and Fogg are the kind of players that are worth exactly what the market will bear. And the market ain't bearing $37 million.
So while these signings might not be the worst thing in the world, let's not pat Wayne on the back for saving the club $33 million. We can offer Wayne our congratulations for not planting gold coins in a hole in the ground and expecting a gold coin tree to grow overnight.
Nicely done, Wayne.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 23, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
You sum it up quite well.
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 23, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Pinocchionomics.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 23, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Affeldt, Fogg, and ....
Maybe Krivsky is being falsely modest. Maybe he is being bluntly honest. Maybe he really has no clue.
Regardless, this seems at some level to be a telling remark. I wish he had a strategy, but he seems to be making it up as he goes along.
by Lonesome George on Feb 23, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
I was waiting for someone to jump
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 23, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
PLAN IS A FOUR LETTER WORD.
I'm guessing that..
So you see, he had some semblance of a stategy. It just wasn't a real strategy.
(And once again I think we owe Wayne some tepid congratulations. He has executed and completed his no-real strategy before the end of February.)
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 23, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Joey Votto
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/02/23/joey-votto-to-start-for-reds/
He's at it again
"I'm big on driving in runs and scoring runs," Baker said. "Guys in the middle should score about close to equal to what they drive in. On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control.
"What you do is run the pitcher's count up, that helps," Baker said. "You put him in the stretch, that helps. But your job in the middle is to either score them or drive them in. The name of the game is scoring runs. Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases."
Reds.com
Oh. My. God.
Can you say: Messiah Complex?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 23, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
does he say that like
by justin0070000 on Feb 23, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
there's a romor going 'round
Correct me if I'm wrong, but...
But, he's a fan of extending the count and making pitchers pitch out of the stretch.
Now, wouldn't a walk require a pitcher to throw at least four pitches per batter, as well as put men on base so that he would have to pitch out of the stretch? Does Dusty even know what he's against?
by Brendanukkah on Feb 23, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
It's going to be like that Cubs trash talk
In all honesty...
Who would you rather have lead off?
Norris Hopper
Ryan Freel
Brandon Phillips
Me? I'd rather have Brandon leading off with Bruce starting in CF, batting 2nd. NoHo is catching splinters on the bench as a backup outfielder (and plays CF against lefties). Freel is your super-sub and #1 RH pinch hitter and pinch runner.
But I don't think that's what Dusty means. I think he lusts for Corey Patterson to play CF for the Reds this year. All around player and all that.
Time will tell.
by Lonesome George on Feb 23, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
BP is no lead off guy.
I understand what you mean
Hopper?
Freel ?
Phillips ?
or get
Lofton
or
Patterson
or
Pick somebody else
I WANT Bruce to stick this spring and play CF, I just don't want to put the pressure of leading off on him. He really hasn't done that too much. Maybe he does it and is great at it, and I'm totally wrong, and good for the Reds. But I'm just trying to be realistic, and hoping that they DON'T go out and get Lofton or especially Patterson.
by Lonesome George on Feb 23, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Jay Bruce is not the best choice
If not Bruce or Kepp - then we're kinda fucked. Freel/Hopper = lack of patience meets the bunt King.
Lofton will not be here,Crawford will not be here - I don't much about Patterson.
I don't think that Bruce is immune to pressure but I also think that getting to be the 1st batter of the game only happens once and that shouldn't freak the kid out - he's the next Jr.
With Dusty
My Line-up Projected Dusty line-up
Brandon Phillips Hopper/Freel/Lofton
Jay Bruce Alex Gonzalez
Adam Dunn Ken Griffey
Ken Griffey Brandon Phillips
Edwin Encarnacion Adam Dunn
Joey Votto Edwin Encarncion
Alex Gonzalez Hatteberg/Votto
David Ross David Ross
Pitcher Pitcher
I can't wait for Opening Day to be either vindicated in my guesses about Dusty or be proved totally wrong (and happy about it).
by Lonesome George on Feb 23, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
George your line up easily beats Dustballs.
Bruce or Keppinger
Phillips Bruce
Votto Phillips
Dunn Dunn
EdE EdE
Griffey Griffey
Ross Votto
Gonzalez Ross
Pitcher Pitcher
There is no place for old men:
(Lofton etc.) or utility players (Fropper)if this team is to progress at the MLB level. What more does Votto and Bruce have to prove at AAA.
It's not just Dusty
Supposedly Jocketty deeply pissed off his bosses - owner Bill DeWitt and team president Mark Lamping - for failing to develop an amicable working relationship with VP of player development (and stat maven) Jeff Luhnow. Supposedly Luhnow lived in fear of being seen around Busch Stadium, especially with reporters, for fear it would get back to Jocketty. And the Jocketty wing of the organization - the old-school scouting types - generally treated Luhnow, according to one source, "like a war criminal."
You have to figure Castellini has heard all this. He must be okay with it.
Mark Twain's words come to mind: "When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Cincinnati because it's always twenty years behind the times."
Flashback!
This contingent of the Cardinals' camp arriving in Cincy still troubles me, but now I think my comment was incomplete to the point of spuriousness. I've since heard insiders insists that every front office employs 'saber-types' even if the public doesn't know their names.
now we know the truth
I kept saying this during the Oscars
by Brendanukkah on Feb 25, 2008 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
In that case...
I'm sure they do
I find it a little unnerving that they would hire someone who was that hostile to sabermetrical types (if that account is true).
But baseball is nothing if not traditional. In other sports, like football, they are eager to make changes and try new things. Baseball clings to their traditions and is much slower to change.
Given that conservative culture, I can imagine that many of the older people in positions of power think sabermetrics is still unproven. It's not like it's an instant ticket to the World Series, after all.
damn
those fuck joe morgan guys
They kind of owe us
by Brendanukkah on Feb 23, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping
by beasleymachine on Feb 23, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Dusty has magic sunglasses.
"Because as soon as I go to this field, I'm missing what's happening on that field," Baker said. "Then you run back and forth and you're missing stuff in between. I want to see as much as I can. I can see who's doing BP fooling around. I love my sunglasses, because I can look this way and be looking back that way."
PLUS THEY MAKE ME LOOK REALLY REALLY COOL.
Somebody please make him stop talking. Please.
I reiterate:
"I love my sunglasses."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 23, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
You ain't got no stunna shades?
by Brendanukkah on Feb 23, 2008 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
I went looking for..
WwwwOW!
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 24, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
well,
I was at Dougs site
You make Tom Shearn saaad.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 24, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
If Cincinnati didn't have Fogg
by justin0070000 on Feb 24, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
If all four of them are dominating in June...

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 24, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
To add to that..
It will be interesting...
Do you trade Fogg then? Do you then ask one of "the kids" to help you stay within striking distance of the Cubs and/or Brewers so Fogg can be shipped to Philadelphia for a new Maloney?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 24, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
If Fogg is pitching that well
Along the same line of thinking, if Fogg really pitches that well, then he could well bump himself into the status of a Type B free agent, which would mean a nice draft pick as compensation when he signs elsewhere for 2009.
by Thundering Turtle on Feb 24, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
this is the beauty of these signings
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 24, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair to Wayne
I'm not sold on aquiring Fogg, but there is a logic to the situation, even though Wayne declaims any "planning".
by Lonesome George on Feb 24, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

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