If Bronson Only Wrote His Own Material..
I saw this on the old Ballbug today.
It looks like Bronson may still be sentimental for Boston. Apparently, with Theo Epstein in the crowd, Bronson changed the lyrics to one of his many cover songs to:
"I think I need to get back to Boston... I need to get out of Cincinnati, I think I need the Olde Towne to fill my heart again."
There's also a ridiculous video on the site...
I'm not really buying all that hype, being that Bronson recently signed a contract extension with the Reds. Although 2007 wasn't a great year for Bronson, he did show flashes of pitching brilliance and I think he'll return to being a solid #2 behind Harang. I've always really liked Bronson despite the antics. I've been a huge Jamie Moyer fan for years and Bronson has nastier, but comparable, stuff to Moyer.
So, I'd like to know people's thoughts on Bronson. Will he rebound in 2008? Where does he fit into the Reds future? Are we all tired of his alt. rock shenanigans? Would he even crack Boston's starting rotation?
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Reevaluating what #2 means
As for his love of Boston, I think social Bronson misses Boston. He clearly has a love for the city and has some great memories there. But I've never seen him give anything but maximum effort for the Reds when he's pitching. He can pine for Boston all he wants, but he chose to extend his contract with the Reds, so I think he's committed to pitching well for them. Besides, once the Reds start winning again, I'm sure he'll be more than happy to be with the team.
by Slyde on Jan 9, 2008 1:27 PM EST 0 recs
I'll guess San Diego and LAD
by Red Menace on
Jan 9, 2008 2:38 PM EST
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Park Effects
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 3:05 PM EST
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mraz!
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 3:27 PM EST
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i guess the cubs and angels
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 3:28 PM EST
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Jered Weaver
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 3:30 PM EST
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son of a dick
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 3:36 PM EST
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I think you mean brother of a dick
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 3:37 PM EST
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i actually like jeff weaver
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 3:50 PM EST
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wow
by justin0070000 on
Jan 11, 2008 8:55 AM EST
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You really...
by BubbaFan on
Jan 11, 2008 5:51 PM EST
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my dad's devoted
by boobs on
Jan 11, 2008 5:59 PM EST
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But followed around the country?
by BubbaFan on
Jan 11, 2008 6:35 PM EST
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Yeah, his job was..
Like Deadheads following the Grateful Dead.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Jan 11, 2008 6:51 PM EST
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he owns his owwn business
by boobs on
Jan 11, 2008 6:53 PM EST
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Wow
I have a David Cone jersey.
Did they give you anything when you got hit?
by BubbaFan on
Jan 11, 2008 7:06 PM EST
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Graeme Lloyd
Graeme Lloyd was the absolute coolest guy to be around. he used to ham it up for the fans around the bullpen and would talk to anybody.
by boobs on
Jan 11, 2008 7:31 PM EST
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Dude...
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Jan 11, 2008 7:42 PM EST
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Do you think...
by BubbaFan on
Jan 11, 2008 8:11 PM EST
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Aw...
by BubbaFan on
Jan 11, 2008 8:12 PM EST
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Cone's wayward balls
by ken on
Jan 12, 2008 11:01 AM EST
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yawn
this is just one more reason why the reds starting rotation, as it stands, is better than league average, and therefore just fine. we dont need no Bedard.
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Jan 12, 2008 3:14 PM EST
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#2 pitchers
What I did for the 2007 season was take every NL pitcher with 100 innings pitched. There were 77 guys. Those players were then listed by lowest ERA to highest ERA and broken down into groups of 16-16-16-16-13 to represent the 1-5 spots in each teams rotation. The numbers played out to look like this:

Now let me note that none of those numbers have been park adjusted and being that the Reds play in a very favorable park for hitters, the Reds numbers will greatly differ. So what I did was attempt to adjust for pitching in GABP. To do so, I just took the IP, split them right down the middle and adjusted one half of the ERA to the park factor for runs in GABP of 1.095 and then added the numbers back together and the ERA's are now roughly park adjusted for pitchers in GABP. Here is what just the ERA looks like for being park adjusted in GABP:
#1 - 3.47
#2 - 4.15
#3 - 4.74
#4 - 5.21
#5 - 5.89
Now, lets remember again that ERA is a very rough stat in what a pitcher actually controls. Another stat that we could use is FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching ERA. It is assuming that all pitchers have the same defense behind them and they all turn outs at the same rate on balls in play). Jay over at recondite baseball did the legwork on this one and you can see the entire article by going here:
http://reconditebaseball.blogspot.com/2007/10/nl-rotations-by-fip-for-2007.html
Now what he came to was that the NL average rotation by FIP would look like this:
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
3.69 4.25 4.69 4.98 5.83
Between Harang, Arroyo and Belisle the Reds had the 1-2-3 covered with a little room to spare.
Just some food for thought on that topic.
As for Bronson, this certainly doesn't put me in a situation where I like him a whole lot outside of a pitcher and this isn't the first time we have been down this road with him before.
by dougdirt on Jan 9, 2008 1:48 PM EST 0 recs
Good Points!
by RiverfrontDave on Jan 9, 2008 2:38 PM EST 0 recs
Of course Belizzlw has an upside.
by Madville on
Jan 11, 2008 10:14 PM EST
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I would
I like Bronson as a 2/3 guy on an NL playoff team however we need at least one guy that is equal his value to make some postseason play.
by kennythered on Jan 9, 2008 2:49 PM EST 0 recs
I'm betting they were held down this year
by Red Menace on
Jan 9, 2008 2:52 PM EST
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Here's a try
BOS
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Josh Beckett 200.2 3.27 145
Curt Schilling 151.0 3.87 122
Daisuke Matsuzaka 204.2 4.40 108
Tim Wakefield 189.0 4.76 100
NYY
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Chien-Ming Wang 199.1 3.70 121
Andy Pettitte 215.1 4.05 110
Roger Clemens 99.0 4.18 107
Mike Mussina 152.0 5.15 87
CLE
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Fausto Carmona 215.0 3.06 151
C.C. Sabathia 241.0 3.21 143
Jake Westbrook 152.0 4.32 107
Paul Byrd 192.1 4.59 100
LAA
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
John Lackey 224.0 3.01 151
Kelvim Escobar 195.2 3.40 134
Jered Weaver 161.0 3.91 117
Ervin Santana 150.0 5.76 79
PHI
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Cole Hamels 183.1 3.39 136
Kyle Kendrick 121.0 3.87 119
Jamie Moyer 199.1 5.01 92
Adam Eaton 161.2 6.29 73
CHC
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Ted Lilly 207.0 3.83 122
Rich Hill 195.0 3.92 119
Carlos Zambrano 216.1 3.95 118
Jason Marquis 191.2 4.60 101
ARI
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Brandon Webb 236.1 3.01 156
Doug Davis 192.2 4.25 111
Micah Owings 152.2 4.30 109
Livan Hernandez 204.1 4.93 95
COL
----
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Aaron Cook 166.0 4.12 116
Jeff Francis 215.1 4.22 114
Jason Hirsh 112.1 4.81 100
Josh Fogg 165.2 4.94 97
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 3:26 PM EST
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Yep
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 3:31 PM EST
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Interesting point, I hope
by TheJay on
Jan 9, 2008 5:02 PM EST
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Yep
And welcome to the site. I'm assuming you are TheJay from Brew Crew Ball. Don't go stealing any of my B-R thunder. I'm the obscure stat nerd around these parts. :)
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 5:19 PM EST
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you're familiar with all the other slydes
also, this may not be news to some others, but I just got The Best American Sports Writing 2007, and one of the entries is a blog post from U.S.S. Mariner. Even if it was just a token blog mention (I think it's the first blog post picked for the publication), I still find it encouraging.
Kind of a nice reminder, I think, that you don't have to be of a privileged profession to entertain, inform or get noticed.
Here's the piece: Bugs Bunny, greatest banned player ever
I'm sorry if this has been mentioned before... the post was written almost two years ago and the book came out in October.
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 5:39 PM EST
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USS Mariner
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 7:50 PM EST
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yep
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 7:55 PM EST
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I think David Cameron is also an author
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 8:16 PM EST
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there is indeed an author
by boobs on
Jan 9, 2008 8:41 PM EST
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These are the Daves I know, I know
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 8:44 PM EST
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Dave's not home.
by Madville on
Jan 12, 2008 2:27 PM EST
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Yes, it's very freeing
oh, you said trans-generation. oops.
by Slyde on
Jan 13, 2008 4:40 PM EST
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Thanks slyde
by Madville on
Jan 15, 2008 11:58 PM EST
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I didnt know

by Charlie Scrabbles on
Jan 9, 2008 8:54 PM EST
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USS Mariner cred
by ken on
Jan 10, 2008 9:27 AM EST
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You are correct
by TheJay on
Jan 9, 2008 6:04 PM EST
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It just hit me
Anyway, that's a good blog you got there. Just wanted to say so.
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 7:47 PM EST
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And for good measure
Pitcher IP ERA ERA+
Aaron Harang 231.2 3.73 125
Bronson Arroyo 210.2 4.23 110
Kyle Lohse 131.2 4.58 102
Matt Belisle 177.2 5.32 88
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 3:29 PM EST
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IMHO, or IMAO...
I see Matt pitching 20-30 more innings in 2008, and his ERA dropping 0.5 to 0.7 runs per 9 innings.
IF the relief is better, I can see a big improvement in wins and losseds for the Reds. Just on stuff (and with decent relief coming in) I can see Volquez and Bailey being at least in the 4.5 ERA range (and maybe better, who knows?).
by Lonesome George on
Jan 9, 2008 4:23 PM EST
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From Baseball Prospectus
Pitcher BEQ RNR BEQ R Support
Harang 10 4 1.210
Arroyo 18 6 -0.474
Belisle 13 6 0.542
Lohse 13 3 -0.491
Surprisingly, Bronson actually got more help from the bullpen than the average pitcher. And Harang was actually hurt more than any of the other Reds starters, at least from an ERA perspective.
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 4:40 PM EST
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Well duh!
Oh well, I could always claim old age and failing memory.
by Lonesome George on
Jan 9, 2008 8:11 PM EST
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And
Empty .284/.323/.424/.748
Men On .324/.369/.566/.935
RISP .342/.392/.640/1.031
None of those numbers are great, but at least with the bases empty he has an average OPS (OPS+ of 101).
by Slyde on
Jan 9, 2008 4:51 PM EST
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I noticed this last season too
by jacob brumfield on
Jan 10, 2008 10:03 AM EST
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Dear Bronson,
Love, Pops
P.S. I can offer you a free tutorial of good listening habits for no charge.
by Pops Daniels on Jan 9, 2008 4:15 PM EST 0 recs
a dissenting opinion
*im all for starting pitchers doing benefit concerts for good causes, especially if most of the music is cover grunge.
*who is the coolest athlete in Cincinnati currently? my pick is BA. its good for the local kids to grow up knowing that baseball players can be cool.
*ZERO steroid allegations.
*BA is probably the best pre and post game interview on the team to boot.
*I dont know how Dunn doesnt lose 40 lbs, move to mt adams and live off arroyo's scraps all summer.
by obc2 on Jan 9, 2008 5:39 PM EST 0 recs
Thanks a lot Tom Brady...
by chandrathan on
Jan 9, 2008 9:02 PM EST
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Tom Brady

by BubbaFan on
Jan 9, 2008 10:40 PM EST
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I agree with the prior post
by spudsmckenzie17 on Jan 9, 2008 9:54 PM EST 0 recs
please explain why last year was so awful
by justin0070000 on
Jan 10, 2008 9:07 AM EST
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ha!
by Zach K on Jan 9, 2008 10:22 PM EST 0 recs
It's my studied opinion ...
by Billingsfan on Jan 9, 2008 10:26 PM EST 0 recs
Trent asked Arroyo about it
"I was just having fun, playing with the crowd," Arroyo said. "Last year I made some song where I said Adam Dunn hated all the coaches and Ken Griffey Jr. and the year before I had something about Jason LaRue and Matt Belisle. It's obviously not true, it's just having fun."For the record, Dunn and Griffey are best of friends and Dunn has never had a problem with the Reds coaches.
Bronson pointed out that he wouldn't have signed his extension last season if he wasn't happy in Cincinnati. Bronson laughed about anyone taking his changing of the lyrics seriously. He's happy in Cincinnati and ready for spring training.
by BubbaFan on Jan 9, 2008 11:04 PM EST 0 recs
I love Bronson but..
by RiverfrontDave on
Jan 10, 2008 9:06 PM EST
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"heat from the fans" ?
by Zach K on
Jan 11, 2008 8:11 AM EST
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Is this a defense of Adam by Zach
by Madville on
Jan 12, 2008 2:29 PM EST
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put on your hard hat Madville
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Jan 12, 2008 3:11 PM EST
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I wasn't defending him
by Zach K on
Jan 14, 2008 8:10 AM EST
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