Eric Milton Was Historically Bad
Geoff Young has an interesting article up at The Hardball Times on 10 Pitching Seasons To Forget, and not surprisingly Eric Milton makes an appearance at number five:
Once upon a time, Milton was a hot young prospect in the Yankees organization who became part of the package that sent Chuck Knoblauch from Minnesota to the Bronx. In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook John Sickels rated Milton as the 23rd best prospect in baseball and compared him favorably to Andy Pettitte. Milton teased for a few years, then got hurt, then lost effectiveness.Always susceptible to the home run ball, Milton gave up 40 of them in 2005 (half of which came in his first 11 starts). That's not quite Ken Dixon territory, but it's not good. Milton allowed six runs or more in 11 of his 34 starts.
Milton owns an 87-84 record over 10 seasons and counting. The highlight of his career came on Sep. 11, 1999, when he no-hit the Angels at the Metrodome.
The Milton signing really was one of the dumber things the Reds have ever done. And I'm such an abused fan that I remember trying to talk myself into thinking it would be ok.
You know you're in bad shape when your favorite team gives three years at a huge price to a guy you are thinking might be able to put up a 4.50 ERA. And you start telling yourself a 4.50 ERA wouldn't be TOO bad. Hell, it's an upgrade even.
I have no idea how 2008 is going to turn out, but it's nice having some realistic hope for once.
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Well Paul Wilson was the ace
by justin0070000 on
Jan 18, 2008 3:42 PM EST
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SABR
-j
by JinAZ on
Jan 18, 2008 4:18 PM EST
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Estimate
So, that's the equivalent of ~0.07 wins above replacement (WAR) per season--almost indistinguishable from a $400k/season ($1.2m total) replacement player.
2007 free agent salaries were valued at ~$4 million per win above replacement, which means a $25/3yr deal was paying for ~2.5 WAR per season...and perhaps a bit more, given that we're seeing ~10% inflation in salaries, and this deal was signed in 2005.
Hindsight's 20/20, of course. I doubt even the critics would have predicted how badly he'd implode. I mean, sure, you'd expect more home runs relative to Minnesota, but his strikeouts declined pretty dramatically while with the Reds (bum knee?). Anyway, yikes.
-j
by JinAZ on
Jan 18, 2008 4:15 PM EST
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Lest we forget
by ken on
Jan 18, 2008 5:03 PM EST
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My take on Milty:
by Madville on
Jan 18, 2008 5:14 PM EST
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heheh
by andromache on
Jan 19, 2008 2:03 PM EST
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Eric Milton
by Paul Householder on
Jan 19, 2008 9:12 PM EST
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But now......
Eric, we hardly knew yee.
Today's Lesson: Don't give big long term contracts to players, especially pitchers, who are statistically sub-mediocre in hopes of "filling a need", providing "veteran presence", or "supplying a big piece of the puzzle" when you may have minor league or young players (alternatives) that are cheaper and have more long term potential.
Whew! That ended up longer than I thought it would.
Or hysterically bad.
by Lonesome George on
Jan 19, 2008 12:32 PM EST
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Spell check didn't help on Histarically
by Madville on
Jan 20, 2008 8:40 PM EST
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if you type "Eric Milton" on googlenews
by justin0070000 on
Jan 24, 2008 12:04 AM EST
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