Dustin Hermanson Is Your 2007 Reds Closer

by JD Arney on Mar 19, 2007 9:28 AM EDT in News Comment 19 comments

Dustin Hermanson

The Reds aren't going to make any announcement, but the feeling in camp is that they've found their closer.
The question about Dustin Hermanson was whether his back was sound. Through three outings, several bullpen sessions and one very tough play at first, his back has been fine.
If Hermanson can be what he was in the 2005 - when he saved 34 games and had a 2.04 ERA with the Chicago White Sox - one of the biggest questions about the Reds will be answered.
"It would be huge for us," Reds manager Jerry Narron said.

I suppose anything's possible, but I hate reading Hermanson say things like this:

I know I'm not going to overpower people,"

And then there's this:

One of the reasons Hermanson signed with the Reds was a chance to close, but that was not the only reason. He's from Springfield, Ohio.
"Cincinnati is a place I was born and raised, went to games," Hermanson said. "My dad, who is in heaven, would love to see me play for the Reds.

So we've got a guy coming off a serious back injury, who doesn't throw too hard anymore, and he's a hometown signee to boot.

At first I didn't think the Reds would sign Hermanson. Then when he was signed I didn't think he'd make the team.

And then when it seemed that he had the team made, I didn't think there was any way the Reds would make him the closer.

Now he's the closer, and I'm thinking there's no way he'll succeed. Hopefully I'll be wrong one more time.

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Hermanson

2005 definitely looks like a career year for him (ERA 2 runs lower). Last year he only pitched 6.2 innings in the majors so it's hard to get a feel for him. It all depends on if he comes back healthy.

I never thought Hermanson was a good idea, for all the reasons JD pointed out. Still, relievers have a way of surprisingly not sucking at times--Todd Jones, Bob Wickman, Todd Jones, Joe Borowski, Todd Jones... Basically if you're good enough to pitch in the majors you're good enough to have a fine stretch for 50 innings. Still I doubt he lasts the year as the closer.

by Red Menace on Mar 19, 2007 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Any White Sox fans out there?

Does anyone know what Hermanson's out pitch is? I did watch quite a few White Sox games when I lived in Chicago, but I can't remember Hermanson's repertoire. If he's reliant on a change, then his velocity wouldn't be a problem, as long as he maintains his arm slot and arm speed. I'd be worried if he relies on a splitter or slider, however. Hitters would quickly learn to lay off the breaking stuff and wait for the meatball.

Beyond the lack of velocity, I'm pessimistic simply because the guy is a mediocre pitcher--always has been, always will be. I'd much rather see an up and comer like Bray or Coffey get the first shot. Then again, this could be a blessing in disguise, because it seems like Narron will now go to Bray and Coffey in high leverage situations when we need them most rather than saving them for the 9th. We saw how well Coffey performed in the Fireman role last year, and I'm hopeful that he can repeat his performance.

by teb7 on Mar 19, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

from

the "Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers":



Pitch Selection:

1 Fastball (mid-90s)  

2 Hard Slider

3 Change

Source: The Scouting Notebook 1999.

Not much help. Also, my edition cuts off at 2003, before Hermanson moved to the bullpen. Sorry.

I put together some data comparing Hermanson to a Reds relief platoon. Hermanson's numbers represent the past three years (including his six innings last year), or since he moved to the pen, and the Reds' number represent last season in its entirety (so Cormier's numbers include w/Phillies, etc.)

Pitcher IP K BB HR ------------------------------ Bray 50.2 39 18 5 Coffee 78 60 27 12 Cormier 48 19 17 5 Stanton 67.2 48 27 2 Weathers 73.2 50 34 12 Total 318 216 123 31 Average/9 6.1 3.5 .877 Hermanson 195 140 64 21 Average/9 6.5 2.9 .969

That doesn't go over well with me. Herm the germ (can we call him that?)'s numbers include his so-called career season, yet he can't move away significantly from an aggregate of average relievers. The closer should be able to have a noticeable difference in K rate and walk rate from the pack, and obviously the Germ hasn't shown that. And he gave up more home runs. To me, it looks like we'd be just as well to use those five guys in a closer-by-committee role.

Fun stat: In 1998, Hermanson was 7th in the NL in ERA and 9th in WHIP in 187 IP. Nine years ago he was pretty good!

And in the end the love you take is equal to the love you make.

by boobs on Mar 19, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Splitter

Though he wasn't particularly effective at missing bats during his best season in '05 with the Sox. I can remember being at a game in early August when he had just 21 strikeouts for the year in about twice as many innings. I was sitting with Studes from THT and a couple other great Sox fans, Studes asked us how the heck Hermanson had been so effective with such a pedestrian strikeout rate. We all said we didn't care as long as he kept converting save opportunities. He came in to strike out the side in a 1-run game to earn the save, shutting us all up.

He was toast a couple of weeks later. He might have been throwing 93-94 at the beginning of the season, but he was down to the low 90's by August, and I suppose that's the last time he's cracked that barrier. He couldn't be used on back-to-back days at that point, and often was out for 3 days at a time. He contemplated retirement last off-season, but he and the Sox found a rehab plan that worked for him. He could have come back before September, but the Sox had a relatively effective pen and really didn't need to toss another question mark into the mix.

I saw all 6 of his innings in September last year, and though they were far from impressive. I think he'll be able to get some outs in '07. The splitter will keep him in the bigs at least as a 6th man in the pen, but I certainly wouldn't want him closing for me.

That being said, Hermanson is probably most effective when late in the game with it all on the line. He seems to thrive in that situation. So it wouldn't surprise me to see him have a very effective couple months of the season before he eventually breaks down and has to call it a career.

South Side Sox

by The Cheat on Mar 20, 2007 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget...

That, according to Trent, Tampa Bay looked at him and didn't want him.

That's sort of like getting turned down by the ugliest girl (or guy) at the dance.

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Mar 19, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ugh...

In 2005, Hermanson posted a 2.04 ERA and a DIPS ERA of 3.76 (1.84 DIPS %). Here's a list of the 2005 Closers who posted 20 or more Saves and a DIPS % of 1.50 or higher:

Chad Cordero: 1.82 ERA (2.07 DIPS %)
Bob Wickman: 2.47 ERA (1.88 DIPS %)
Mariano Rivera: 1.38 ERA (1.74 DIPS %)
Danys Baez: 2.86 ERA (1.53 DIPS %)
Jason Isringhausen: 2.14 ERA (1.66 DIPS %)
Derrick Turnbow: 1.74 ERA (1.90 DIPS %)
Billy Wagner: 1.51 ERA (1.83 DIPS %)
Dustin Hermanson: 2.04 ERA (1.84 DIPS %)
Ryan Dempster: 1.85 ERA (1.67 DIPS %)
Huston Street: 1.72 ERA (1.64 DIPS %)

Now here's the same list with their respective 2006 ERA numbers (minus an injured Hermanson):

Chad Cordero: 3.19 ERA
Bob Wickman: 2.67
Mariano Rivera: 1.80
Danys Baez: 4.53
Jason Isringhausen: 3.55
Derrick Turnbow: 6.87
Billy Wagner: 2.24
Ryan Dempster: 4.80
Huston Street: 3.31

Of course, Closers end up with small sample size Innings, but no one from that group was spared an ERA increase in 2006. The average ERA increase from that group was 1.71 and the median ERA increase was 1.49. Even removing the obvious outlier (Turnbow- who fell apart) from the sample leaves us with an average increase of 1.29 and the median (+1.42 ERA) is barely altered.

So the question is- "Can Hermanson, with a tender back, avoid seeing a dramatic increase in ERA versus his 2005 numbers?" The answer is most likely "No".

First is Hermanson's 2005 BABIP (.232); a number that was produced while pitching in front of MLB's second best defensive team (CWS- .720 DER). That BABIP is most likely unsupportable with the Reds. Second, Hermanson's 2005 HR rate appears to be artificially suppressed (0.63 HR/9 IP). That's a rate Hermanson had never before approached- as a Starter or a Reliever.

Even if completely healthy, I'd expect a significant correction for Hermanson's ERA in 2007 and considering that his HR rate should jump significantly (it could easily double), that could mean an ERA in the mid to high 4.00 range. With some luck, it could be slightly better but with some bad luck it could be even worse.

But hey, at least he's proclaimed himself to be "intense".

by Reds123 on Mar 19, 2007 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice work

That's some great, if discouraging data. If Narron uses Hermanson like a typical closer, it means he could be pitching quite a few games in which he has a 2 or 3 run lead, in which case, giving up a run won't hurt the team as much as if he were being used as a fireman.

Sigh...

by teb7 on Mar 19, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whattya mean discouraging...

If you just look at Mariano Rivera's name, it seems pretty promising...

In accordance to the prophecy

by crolfer on Mar 19, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would like to see Bray get it

I really think Hermanson will be a waste of a roster spot. The last power closer the Reds had was Scott Wiliamson for half of a season in 2003, and before that it was Jeff Shaw in 1998. I would like to have a guy who hitters fear, and Hermanson, or Guardado isn't that guy. Bray with his power fastball could be that guy, Coffey with his mid 90's fastball, and hopfully his refound splitter could be that guy, Salmon who was optioned to Louisville, could be that guy. There are so many young quality arms down there, you have to figure one of them will step up as the closer. I think we are in trouble if Guardado is still looked upon as the savior for the bullpen.

by justin0070000 on Mar 19, 2007 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs