Monday Quick Hits: Matt Belisle Would Make A Fine Fifth Starter

by JD Arney on Mar 19, 2007 10:10 AM EDT in News Comment 12 comments

Matt Belisle

Some free agency rumors, first from the Denver Post:
Byung-Hyun Kim hurt his trade value with Friday's meltdown. He is not the only starter on the market, either, with Boston likely to move Kyle Snyder. Cincinnati, the Mets and Texas are all poking around for another starter

And from the East Valley Tribune:

Yet [Jorge] Julio, a part-time closer for the D-Backs last season but behind Jose Valverde this spring, said he is not fazed by reports that teams in need of a closer - Florida, San Francisco, Cincinnati - have scouted him this spring.

Jorge Julio would be a pretty good idea, but I'm not sure why the Reds need another starter at the moment, unless someone's hurt that we don't realize. I see seven potential starters right now (Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse, Saarloos, Belisle, Livingston), all of whom would probably be better options than Kim.
David Wells had gout a few years back, and now he's got diabetes. Brings to mind John Kruk's "I'm not an athlete. I'm a professional baseball player." crack.
The Hardball Times really doesn't like the Reds chances in 2007, forecasting them to go 73-89, with a 5% chance of winning the division. I'm not terribly optimistic that they'll go nuts and win 95 games, but I'll also be surprised if they finish fifth.
Matt Belisle wants to start, and I think that's an excellent idea. Saarloos would be a nice guy to have coming out of the pen, and Belisle has the stuff to start. He's also still only 26 years old, meaning his best years should still be ahead of him. Belisle's health has been an issue, but he pitched all winter and apparently his back has held up fine.
He's the best option right now, from what I can see. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Belisle develop into a number three or four type guy in the next couple of years.
And it's kind of a shame that the Reds think Eric Milton has to start. Harang/Arroyo/Lohse/Belisle/Saarloos (with Bailey waiting in the wings) would be an interesting rotation.

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Belisle's Worth

Is Belisle worth much on the market to a team that is desperate for a number 4/5? I'd like to see him start every day, but it just seems he has not had his chances here very much. Maybe he is worth a decent prospect and middle reliever?

by snohio on Mar 19, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

big on Belisle

I don't understand the lack of enthusiasm for Belisle coming from management. I was shocked when I learned Saarloos will make 1.2M. Would David Shafer be considered a decent prospect or middle reliever? Because we could have kept him, given Saarloos' job to Belisle, saved money and maybe gotten better production.

by Red Menace on Mar 19, 2007 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't get it either

Now, I don't consider Belisle to be a top-end option. His minor league HR rates were acceptable (0.67 HR/9) and his BB rates were fine as a SP.

His K/9 rates will probably never be over 7.00 at the MLB level and as his "Out" pitch is a curve. That'll probably translate to HR/9 rates around 1.00-1.20 long term (which is what he's doing now). I don't expect him to be a 7-8 Inning per Start guy, but I'd take 6 from a decent cheap fourth or fifth starter. Yet Krivsky is bringing SP options who project worse (some of which are more expensive) and he's filling the pen with less attractive options as well; which may result in Belisle getting squeezed out entirely.

The Reds have a bird in hand but continue to be fascinated with the two in the bush.

by Reds123 on Mar 19, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is one of the two in the bush...

Coutlangus?

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Mar 19, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Conference Call.

Come on!! I'm on a conference call!! I had to mute my phone not to laugh at everyone!

by snohio on Mar 19, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's better than the typical #5 starter, at least

There are a lot of #5 starters out there who are down right awful. Belisle may not be a prize, but in his limited action as a starter, he's been fine for a #5 guy - the Reds are 4-3 in his seven career starts, and in 6 of the 7 he did a decent enough job keepiong his team in the game. If he starts all the time, he can hopefully build up his endurance to where he can consistently give 5-6 innings per start.

Just think of how much a salary cap would help the Reds. For one thing, it would make them less likely to throw a couple million at a mediocre starter, and just hand the job to a guy like Belisle. For another, a guy like Milton, who is absoultely wortheless, would actually have value in a salary cap league (since he has an "expiring contract" that would interest a team that wanted cap room in 2008).

You know, I never wish injury on anyone, but it would be nice if Milton got stranded on some desert island paradise for a couple of months (with plenty of beatuful women and rum, mind you), allowing Hamilton and Belisle to solidfy the rotation and make him irrelevant.

Free Joey Votto!

by ucclark on Mar 19, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

options

Is Matt Belisle the 2007 version of Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock? I sure hope not.

CW has Saarloos in the 5 spot. I just hope Belisle secures a spot on the staff, as he'd be ready and able when Milty goes on the DL.

And I listen, to the voice inside my head...nothing, I'll do this one myself. "State of Love and Trust"

by ohiobobcat on Mar 19, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Belise will be solid

He has good velocity, and a decent curve. He was once a top prospect in the Braves organization. There is no reason why he can't keep an ERA around 4.5 or so. He is a 5th starter, this year the Twins have Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson in there 4th and 5th spots, the Reds have better options beyond Belise then that. This year the Reds have some depth. I know I am in the minority but I believe Milton should get a spot in the rotation out of spring training. He can be solid when he is healthy. His three worst starts last year, were his last start, and his starts before and after knee surgery. Without his last start, he had an ERA around 4.89, he probably has an ERA around 4.5 without the other two starts. If he falters the Reds have Saarloos, Livingston, Bailey, Rameriz, and possibly Paul Wilson to take his place. I think with Castelini's attitude, and the fact Krivsky didn't sign him, he could be DFA'ed, or sent to long relief if he pitches poorly. There is no embarrasment to the current regime, over his bad contract, it was inherrited.

by justin0070000 on Mar 19, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe there is a reluctance to deal with Milto

I will grant you that Milton's contract is not an embarassment to the current regime, but I do vbelieve that his contract has a huge effect on how the rotation is assembled.

If Eric Milton were making league minimum, he would currently be fighting for a job, and would probably get cut. He is a sub-replacement level pitcher who is aging and coming off of a major injury. He is not young and does not throw hard. Just think - if Matt Belisle had Milton's health and stat line, would he even be in the running for a roster spot? Heck no.

Eric Milton is the presumed 3rd starter, and it has nothing to do with his performance in a Reds uniform, or his physical gifts or potential. While his left-handedness, and a couple of OK seasons in his younger, healthier days play a role, the primary thing that gets him in the rotation is his massive contract.

That said, I do believe that management is more likely to cut bait with Milton this year then previously - partly because he isn't their mistake, and partly because his contract is up at the end of the year anyway. But at the end of the day, they gotta pay him his $10 million (?) this year, and they don't want to "waste" it by assigning rotation spots on merit.

Free Joey Votto!

by ucclark on Mar 19, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Lohse

is probably the biggest key to 2007? If Lohse can put it all togeather he could be huge. He throws in the mid 90's, with a good slider. If he can finnaly make good on the promise that made him a highly touted prospect a few years ago, the Reds could have 3 very solid pitchers.

by justin0070000 on Mar 19, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs