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Burnt Orange Nation on Drew Stubbs

My SportsBlogs Nation colleague Burnt Orange Nation sat down with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus back in April, and one of the topics of conversation was Texas (and now Reds) outfielder Drew Stubbs:

Burnt Orange Nation: Thanks for taking the time to talk with us, Kevin. Let's start with some current Horns before we talk about some of the guys that are already competing in the professional ranks. Texas' top prospect is outfielder Drew Stubbs. From my perspective, he's already got the range to play centerfield in the pros, and he obviously carries a big stick, but the 39 strikeouts in 137 ABs is worrisome. How do scouts project Stubbs, and is he still a Top 10 pick?

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus:  Anytime, it's always fun talking about college baseball.  I think you just pretty much nailed the book on Stubbs, and I think you may be even underselling the defense.  I know one scouting director who think Stubbs is among the top 10 centerfielders in the game at any level, and that's remarkable praise.  In addition, all of the tools are there for him to be a top-flight offensive player as well, but as you note, his ability to make contact is a huge concern for scouts.  I think the most alarming thing really has been the lack of progress in Stubbs game.  You would like to see a nice upward climb in production and a nice decline in strikeouts, but Stubbs has really remained pretty steady.  His stock is definitely down from where it was at the beginning of the season.  He's still first-round easy, and somebody picking high may take a chance because of his high ceiling, but some position players like Long Beach State's Evan Longoria have passed him on most team's boards.

One of the top 10 centerfielders in the game at any level, already. I'm assuming that's talking about his defense, and I have to say that's pretty exciting.

In a few years our defense is going to be much improved, and that'll help to improve the pitching. You just have to remember the '99 team, and the strong up the middle defense that it had (Pokey, Larkin, Cameron) to realize how important a team's defense can be. So many pitchers had career years that year, and it obviously had something to do with the players playing behind them.

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Stubbs
I was reading up on him last night.  I would say I was researching him, but my methods are completely unsophisticated.  (I type in player names on Yahoo! and include words like "defense" or "strikeouts".  Its actually pretty effective when trying to find info on pitching prospects.  You can type "Sean Watson" and "fastball" or "mph" and find what kind of stuff he has.  Just so you know, he has a 94 mph fastball with good movement to go along with that knuckle-curve we've been hearing about.)

Anyway, I didn't bother to save the links, but one article said that he covers so much ground in center that the corner outfielders are able to move much closer to the foul lines, and this caused loads of what would otherwise be extra base hits to be recorded as outs.  Can you imagine how good the Reds defense would be if they had Kearns in RF, Stubbs in CF, and Jay Bruce in LF?  Teams would be bunting the whole way through the batting order.

by Blue on Jun 8, 2006 4:59 PM EDT reply actions  

cameron
A question for my fellow Reds fanatics: Would you be happy if Stubbs was the second coming of Mike Cameron? Low average, some power, great defense...

I would be content with that. Superstardom would be nice, but I like Cameron a lot.

by greg456 on Jun 8, 2006 6:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Stubbs/Cameron
I would certainly be happy with a career similar  to Cameron's.  However, Stubbs is probably a lot better defender than Cameron.  If we string this out on a best case scenario idea, I would be very pleased with Stubbs as a defensive guru that can at least handle the bat.  

Possible Line-up in the future:

1- Phillips 2B/SS
2- Lopez 2B/SS
3- Bruce LF
4- Kearns  RF (who should be clean-up now)
5- Encarnacion 3B
6- Votto 1B
7- Stubbs CF
8- Catcher (still nothing in the system worth projecting)

As a #7 hitter, I'll take a .240-.250 batter with his speed, decent pop, and gold glove defense.  As a matter of fact, I'd "almost" take that over the Dunner right now.  ALMOST being the operative word.

by FritzMW on Jun 8, 2006 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stubbs
If we can trade Stubbs for the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr., then great!

by Brian B on Jun 8, 2006 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stubbs
Offensivley, I think he could develop a number of different ways.  He could probably reach the majors most quickly if he would make a concerted effort to make more consistent contact and hit for a high average while taking an accompanying loss in HR power, relying instead on his incredible speed once he's on base.  This approach could be successful because he could have a very high OBP given his ability to take a walk.  It would also make him a candidate for a role in the top of the order.  And who knows, the power could come back as he becomes accustomed to major league pitching.

by Blue on Jun 9, 2006 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

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