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Monday Winter Meetings Open Thread

Wayne Krivsky

Here we go, pretty much the most exciting week of the offseason is upon us. I have no idea how much the Reds will be players this week, but I will admit that I have a faint hope that Castellini might shell out some money and surprise us.

It's not so much that I want Krivsky to go out and sign a big money free agent, because there really aren't too many of those left who are appealing. But I'm sure there are plenty of steals to be had via trade for teams willing to take on some payroll. That's where I'd like to see some payroll flexibility exercised.

There's just one player on my modest free agent wishlist, and that's Eduardo Perez. Perez is pretty solid against left handed pitching, and I think he'd be a great bat off the bench as well as a nice complement to Scott Hatteberg at first base.

Use this thread for any random winter meetings chatter, but feel free to start a separate diary should anything big happen.

What are you guys hoping for this week?

0 recs  |  Comment 51 comments

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I was thinking the same thing JD..
Eduardo would be a good fit to backup Hatteberg.  Another guy I haven't heard much about is Daryle Ward.  He hit over .300 in less than 200 AB's, with 7 home runs.  He would be excellent in pinch-hit situations.  The only downside is he would be another lefty bat, and his defense isn't all that great.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Dec 4, 2006 7:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

RH power bat, RH power bat
Half-jokingly, I'd make a play for Bill Hall.
Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 4, 2006 9:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

But seriously
I'd be on board with that if we hadn't already signed Gonzalez.  I'm not sure what the Brewers are thinking with signing Counsel and moving Hall to left.  Hall was considered a good defensive SS/2B, and his bat is obviously much more valuable there than in the OF.  Plus they now have a log jam in LF/RF, with Hall, Jenkins, Hart, and Mench.  

It's easy to get down on our team, but at least we're not the Brewers.

by ken on Dec 4, 2006 9:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Getting Bill Hall makes sense...
... if only so he stops killing the Reds.

I'd like to see the Reds get starting pitching, starting pitching and more pitching.

Reds need at least one, and really two more starters to pair with Arroyo/Harang.  I'm willing to take a chance on Bailey making the rotation, or dealing with Lohse/Claussen/Ramirez until he ready around mid-season.  If they can get a quality guy (same level as Arroyo or Harang, if not better) for Dunn, well, thanks for the memories, Adam.

Milton could thrive in SD in that ballpark.  At nearly $10 mil a year the Reds would have to pay some of his salary, I suspect.

As far as everyday players, I'd like to see Denorfia get a shot in right.  Freel can rotate around to give guys days off; he's better when he plays 4/5 days a week anyway.

by joeberk on Dec 4, 2006 9:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I keep saying this...
but we really don't need starting pitching. 2006 ERA+ of our rotation:

Harang     128
Arroyo     146
Milton      93
Lohse      105
Ramirez/Claussen/Belisle/Bailey ??

It should be mentioned that although 100 ERA+ is league average, it's above average for starters because relievers skew the stats. I expect Arroyo to come back to earth a little and I don't really know what we'll get from Lohse. Still, looking at all aspects of the team, this has to be considered the strength. We even have enough depth so that we shouldn't have to turn to the likes of Michalak/Kim/Mays when injuries come. Off the top of my head San Diego and LA had better staffs in the NL last year, but apart from them I don't know who had us beat.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't Michalak
sign with the Nats? Not that it takes much relief depth away from us....
Krivsky always said life was like a box of players....

by sukr on Dec 4, 2006 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

probably, I dunno...
I was just using those names to mean replacement level starter.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 11:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sukr is probably still a bit scarred...
Michalak, Mays and Sunny D were a lot worse than replacement level, which may have been what confused sukr.  He might still be scarred by the seven-run meltdowns and 70 mph fastballs.

I get your point re the rotation and the replacement-level starter, however.

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Dec 4, 2006 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha...
i'll never forget the first time we saw michalak... i had his rookie card (top prospects, Oakland A's, 1994 I believe) and living in louisville i saw that he kept pitching pretty well. So when he was called up i was really intrigued. Then my paper ran that story about how he had the best pickoff move in the minors... so i couldn't wait to see this guy.

Then his debut came, and all i remember was that fastball. I think i was posting on here throughout the game, and i remember someone saying "OMG how slow is that fastball?" and i remember it topping out at 81. 81! 81.

i'll never forget that 81 mph fastball.

by boobs on Dec 4, 2006 12:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aye! The point is intact.
I was hoping to never see the name mentioned again in regards to our staff. I did a double-take. Just asking to make sure I didn't dream his signing and eventual plague to Leatherpants.

Anyone else think the Lizard wouldn't be such a bad option out of the pen? I mean, over the options Menace mentioned.

Krivsky always said life was like a box of players....

by sukr on Dec 4, 2006 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

replacement level
On a whole, I don't think calling them replacement level is far off. Ramirez had a 90 ERA+, Claussen 78, Belisle 134 mostly as a reliever. Michalak had a 6.15 ERA as a starter, which I rekon is about a 78. If the Lizard can come back healthy I like him as a fifth.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 12:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good link
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/afl/article/0,2777,DRMN_23930_5185708,00.html

Check out the Washington Nationals comments.  I wonder what Guzman could bring in a trade?  

Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 4, 2006 9:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

HELL NO
You have to be a crackhead to even think about Guzman.  You obviously haven't had to watch him play on a regular basis.
winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 4, 2006 9:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

p.s.
If we get anyone from the Nats, it should be Ryan Church.  The Nationals have treated him like crap over the last two seasons which has affected his numbers, but he would fit nicely in center while Griffey moves over.
winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 4, 2006 9:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what would a team have to give up...
to get Ryan Church?
"if you love the reds so much, why don't you marry them?"

by BobbyO on Dec 4, 2006 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

probably not too much
He's really fallen out of favor with the organization for no reason other than he was injured once last year and Frank Robinson thought he was being a baby.  Even though Frank is gone, Bowden  does not like him either.  I'd think two middle tier minor leaguers could convince Bowden to give him up, provided that he can get over the Krivsky personality conflict.
winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 4, 2006 1:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't it be crafty if...
one of those middling relievers had some sort of hidden injury?  Then we could unload him on an unsuspecting team and get the player we've really wanted all this time.  Oh ho ho, how fiendishly clever!  [starts to rub hands together]

by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2006 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly....
I dont think there is a GM out there that would offer anything for Guzman.  He has 75% less value than Royce...
Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 4, 2006 9:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OH
you weren't advocating a trade FOR him.  whew...for a minute there I thought you had lost your mind.  i guess the whole twins connection gave me a nightmare just thinking about it!
winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 4, 2006 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

righty
Perez would be a nice right handed bat. Last year he hit .275/.331/.503 .834 against lefties in 169 PA. For his career he's .265/.362/.501 .863.

I still think some team will get a steal if the sign Jose Cruz Jr as a specialist against lefties. Last year against lefties he hit .313/.420/.522 .942 in 81 PA (he inexplicably faced righties more before being cut late in the year). Career against lefties he's .280/.363/.471 .834. He's four years younger than Perez and can play center field.

The problem is he's never played first, and I wouldn't assume he could. But he could be a good PH option for Hatteberg or Griffey (Jr absolutely fell apart last year against lefties, but I guess we're really hoping for a bounceback from him). We need some depth in the outfield, as we know Griffey will miss time and I would rather not see any Bubba.

The signing of Moeller makes Cruz unlikely though. If Krivsky really goes with three catchers (ugh) Valentin will be used as the primary PH against lefties. This would be a mistake. For a catcher he's got some pop, but he's just not really a decent hitter.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 10:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The big question is Dunn
Dunn should be traded, not only because of his poor defense, but because his size and weight wear him down as the season goes on. He's much, much more suited for the DH role in the American league.

I know GABP is suited for power left-handed hitters, but Dunn's power is half wasted on him hitting the ball nearly out of the ballpark. We should have an outfield with great defense and speed. The power will take care of itself naturally at GABP.

That's why I think we need room on the team for Freel, Denorfia and Hopper. Those guys can cover a great deal of ground in the OF, and with a superb shortstop in Gonzales, we would have an excellent defense to go with great pitching.

My hope is that Wayne K. trades Dunn for an established closer and a right handed hitter. I would move Griffey to right, and let Freel, Denorfia and Hopper handle LF and CF.

Did I say that?

by dmcgee on Dec 4, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Say you trade Dunn
and get a closer and right handed hitter.  Where in your lineup would the right handed hitter play?  If you are talking about someone to split time with Hatteberg, then you just wasted Dunn in my opinion.  And if that is all you get for Dunn, next year the offense will have trouble scoring 670 runs next year.  That means, to come close to a .500 season, the pitching staff would have to allow about 130 fewer runs.  So far, all the Reds have done is improve the defense over last season and they haven't made up 130 runs worth with that.

Trading Dunn is a bad idea.  I don't understand why people want to trade him.  For the past 3 seasons he has been the first or second most productive hitter on the Reds and the offense is no longer a strength like it used to be.  If you trade Dunn, it will be a serious weakness.

by Slyde on Dec 4, 2006 11:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ummm.....no
  1. Dunn's contract makes him twice as valuable to the Reds as he is to any other team.  The Reds have a team option for 2008 at $13mil that voids if he is traded.  The Reds have two seasons of Dunn at below-market rates, any team trading for him gets only one season of Dunn before he hits free agency.  Thus, the Reds cannot expect to replace Dunn's value on the trade market.
  2. Dunn makes $10.5 million this season.  Players who have been getting similar money on the free agent market include a 32-year old who was playing on a minor league deal as recently as 2004, and has exactly one season above league average, and a slap hitting CF who is seen as a leadoff guy despite the fact that he can't take a walk, often gets caught stealing, and routinely leads the league in outs.  People who are close to Dunn's production level are getting $17 million in the free agent market.  Thus, the Reds cannot expect to replace Dunn's value on the free agent maket.
  3. Given (1) and (2), the only way it would possibly make sense to trade Dunn is if his production came in an area that was a huge surplus to the Reds, or if a competent replacement was being blocked by Dunn's presence.  The Reds, after The Trade, were 2nd to last in the league in runs, thus no surplus of offense exists.  The other corner outfield spot is scheduled to be manned by either Bubba Crosby, Chris Denorfia or Norris Hopper.  Thus, there is no competent replacement being blocked by Dunn's presence.
What possible sense does it make to trade Dunn when you can't get proper value in a trade, can't replace his production at a similar price in free agency, and have no surplus offense to deal or competent replacements if you deal him?
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 4, 2006 3:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Umm, yes
Very few players are worth $10 million a year. If you look at what Wayne is doing, he's clearing out some of the top payroll. That's what the small market teams have to do to be successful.

We should trade Dunn while he still has some market value. As for Milton, wouldn't it be great if he decided to go somewhere else. (He has that in his contract.)

Of the top 15 Reds salaries of 2006, how many of those players are still with us? Less than half.  

Griffey,
Milton,
Dunn,
Larue, GONE
Wilson, GONE
Arroyo,
Lopez, GONE
Harang,
Womack, GONE
Kearns, GONE
Mercker, GONE
Weathers,
Williams, GONE
Aurilia, GONE
Freel,

 

Did I say that?

by dmcgee on Dec 4, 2006 5:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No trade
Trading Dunn would be getting rid of a key part of the Reds offense. He was the teams leader in RBI's, Home Runs and second in OBP, even if he does strike out all the time.

While I really don't see him in a Red's uniform in 2008, I think it's in the team's best interest to keep him one more year. Teams don't seem to be too excited about Dunn, and I don't think they'd get a good enough pitcher in return to make up for the loss in offense.

by KAredsfan on Dec 4, 2006 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

how about
  I'm not saying we should dump Dunn. I'd only trade him if the deal was great for us, and it improved our team.
  Other than him, we dont have any great trading chips, and there's no extra money, so basically, this would be a boring week for the Reds, unless we dangle Dunn out there.
  If holding pat is best, than so be it.

But you can bet some guys will be complaining if nothing gets done.

Did I say that?

by dmcgee on Dec 4, 2006 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I still got No.
Small market teams don't simply sell off payroll to be successful.  They identify core players who are undervalued, and lock those guys up before they become too expensive.  The smart move would be to lock Dunn up to a 4 yr. $56 mil contract right now before he hits free agency and gets offered $18 mil/yr.  Certainly, a Billy Beane or Terry Ryan-type GM wouldn't dream of selling off a player if they could only get 50% value in return.

Without Dunn, you'd be left with a last-place team with few major league pieces of value, and a thin minor league system.  Not sure what kind of haul you're planning on getting for Dunn, but I assure you that no team is willing to fix all those problems to acquire a one year rental.

Take a look at your list of players who are "GONE."  There's two distinct groups; players who significantly underperformed their contract, and players we are kicking ourselves for trading.  Dunn is obviously not underperforming his contract.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 4, 2006 6:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Krivsky isn't cutting payroll
I don't think that's a fair statement. The payroll has been increasing steadily since he and Castellini came on board. Gonzalez, Stanton, Lohse, Ross and Cormier were added, as well as parts of Schoenweis, Guardado, Franklin and Johnson. Keanrns made less than some of our relievers last year. And some of the players on your list we paid to stop playing for us. Larue will get 3 million from the Reds this year.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 8:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Clarification
I meant to say... Krivsky is cutting the top payroll (wherever he can), and doing so, in order to free up money to sign less expensive players.

No doubt the overall payroll has steadily increased, but at a moderate clip.

The goal, it seems, is to end up with a $70 million payroll. Dunn's $10 million must look awfully tempting to Krivsky. He could get two or three players in exchange. I'm not saying he should get just any 3 players, but if the trade was right, and if it would significantly improve our pitching, I think he would pull the trade.

We have some good young outfielders in Freel, Denorfia and Hopper. Crosby was a former first round pick who could still find himself.

We'll see what happens.    

Did I say that?

by dmcgee on Dec 5, 2006 6:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ok
I agree with everything except the optimism on Crosby. Actually I wouldn't trade Dunn for pitching, but to each his own.

by Red Menace on Dec 5, 2006 2:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Crosby...
I am still optimistic.

Remember, he could really turn into the next Albert Pujols if MLB switches to aluminum bats to save trees.

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Dec 5, 2006 6:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A jerk?
Wait...he already is...uh...
Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Dec 5, 2006 8:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Griffey
Those of you who went to Redsfest, was there any talk in the air about moving Griffey out of center? If Freel and Deno can't replace him maybe Krivsky will swing a trade for a centerfielder. Of course that would take at bats away from Deno.

I suspect Griffey will man center on opening day, and I respectfully suggest that's horrible for the team.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 11:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Junior is in CF for duration of contract...
Bubba, Hopper, DeNo in RF.

Let the good times roll, this is ourrrrrrr country.  

Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 4, 2006 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a good point
This is ourrrrr country. I need to remember that.

by Red Menace on Dec 4, 2006 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bubba's gonna tear it up this year
they'll be renaming gabp "crosby field."

meanwhile, i heard the cardinals signed mickey mantle because they felt their team wasn't old enough.

winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 4, 2006 12:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
That was really said? Cause, really, wow.
We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Dec 4, 2006 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I'll be in the minority...
But I think the Reds should sign Barry Bonds...

It would definately boost the attendance for next season, as it would give us a reason to go and watch this team.

He probably wouldn't want to play here, but I think it'd be interesting to have him here for a year or two.

Michigan was Robbed!

by chandrathan on Dec 4, 2006 3:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'd love that
But it's not really plausible with Dunn in LF and signing him is a PR nightmare regardless of the fact that it would bring fans in. He's still a great player, though, and I don't really care if a guy is roiding up or not as long as he performs on the field and doesn't get suspended.

by Geki on Dec 4, 2006 4:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the only reason i wouldn't want that
is because i want to see him end his career in a giants uniform, because there is something inherently romantic in the teams that the legends represent.  50 years from now, when we look back, what team will a-rod be associated with (given that his picture isn't even on the yankees website, i don't think he'll be there too many more years.)  or how about soriano, if he indeed is able to mimic 2006 for several more years?  or curt shilling, who's been to the WS with three different teams?  or randy johnson?

yeah, i know that babe ruth played his last games with the boston braves, and that pete rose broke the NL hit record in a traitor's uniform, and that bonds himself spent his first years with pitifulsburgh, but barry bonds singlehandedly saved baseball in san francisco, and he's a giant in my mind and always will be.

winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 4, 2006 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like to remember Barry
as a Pirate, failing to stop the Reds advancing to a World Series win in 1990.  And I'll say this for him: the Pirates gave the Reds a better series than the A's did.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2006 4:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No Barry
First, I don't want that mess to be associated with my favorite team. While it'd be nice to see him break the record in a reds uniform, I don't want the controversy surrounding it.

Plus, with Dunn, Junior and Bonds I don't know how crazy I'd be about that outfield defensely. Although you could potentially have 3 500 home run hitters (if Dunn ever got his act together).

by KAredsfan on Dec 4, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Barry would have to play LF
And there's no way Dunn would move to right. He (or Barry, I guess) would move to 1st or, more likely, Dunn would be traded.

by Geki on Dec 4, 2006 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

let me just say:
That I would not watch a reds game (or follow the team) with Barry on the team, period.
GO REDS!

by ewquinn on Dec 4, 2006 11:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trade Dunn

Would you like this trade?

Dunn to the Orioles for Nick Markakis and A. Loewen or anothe pitching prospect. Or to have mor fun a 3 way deal including the Angels
Dunn to the orioles, Tejada to the Angels and Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar or Wood, kendrick to the reds.
Tell me your opinion and what would be the deal breaker.

Remember 1990

by Dominican Red on Dec 4, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

of course
Like I replied to you in the other thread, they're both easy calls.

Loewen is a #1/#2 starter soon, and Markakis is a stud.

The Angels' deal would be great, too. Santana's a solid #3 and Kendrick has drawn Rod Carew comparisons, and I'd take Wood over Aybar.

But both are unrealistic. Neither team would give that up for Dunn.

by greg456 on Dec 4, 2006 10:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Both are easy decisions
and neither has any chance of happening.

by Geki on Dec 4, 2006 11:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn will be 27 next year
and he already has 198 home runs or something like that.  he hasn't even hit his prime.  

why would anyone want to trade away a 500 home run hitter?

winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 5, 2006 10:02 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hustle
I bet if one of the GMs runs to his seat at a conference table, Krivsky's gonna be looking to deal Dunn for someone on that guy's team.  When the GM sprints out to his place, it sets a tone for the rest of the organization.  Screw any GM who has the gall to walk to his chair.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 5, 2006 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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