Baseball Prospectus on New Red Jerry Gil, and Why the Reds Don't Seem to Care About OBP

I dug out my 2006 Baseball Prospectus to see what they had to say before the 2006 season about new Red Jerry Gil, and it's not pretty:
Offseason knee surgery shouldn't be a factor in his development, because there wasn't much developing going on, anyway. Scouts rave about his defense and particularly his arm, but offensively, his OBP has never topped .300. With the list of hitter friendly leagues and ballparks on his resume, that's inexcusable.
I think we've got to face the fact that getting on base is no longer a priority for the Cincinnati Reds. Let's look at why:
- The Reds traded Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, two guys who OBP a pretty solid .360 in an average year. They replaced Lopez with Royce Clayton, a guy who has a .313 OBP in 16 seasons.
- Krivsky signed Juan Castro to a two year contract. He has a .272 OBP in 12 seasons.
- Krivsky traded for Cody Ross, who ended the season with a .284 OBP.
- He traded for Dave Ross, a guy who had put up OBP's of .253 and .279 in the two seasons before coming to the Reds. This one definitely worked out, but it's certainly worthy of a bullet point in this discussion.
- Acquired Todd Hollandsworth, a player with a .328 OBP in 12 seasons.
- Dewayne Wise spent significant time with the Reds this season, despite his .236 OBP in 334 major league at bats.
I'm sure some will think I'm making a mountain out of a molehill here, and admittedly some of the listed moves were very minor. But I think we're about to see Adam Dunn get traded, and I don't have any confidence in Wayne Krivsky getting full value because I don't think he places enough importance on one of Dunn's biggest attributes.
Dunn just finished up a horrific season, and still managed to get on base at a .365 clip.
This, to me, is the most frightening thing about this organization right now. I have less and less confidence every day that Wayne Krivsky has a clue about putting together a good offense. Let's just hope he can find some more Bronson Arroyo's, because he's going to need quite a few to cover for the offense he's creating.
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28 comments
Comments
Keep At It
by sweaver on Oct 16, 2006 7:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm worried
by Red Menace on Oct 16, 2006 8:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
by Caleb on Oct 16, 2006 8:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Juan Castro... ?
Goes something like " If your GM gives a guarateed contract at anything more than the major league minimum to (player like castro), then go down to his office and politely ask for $500,000, because he's obviously just giving it away"
Signing Juan Castro to a two ytear contract is, unfortunately, a sign that Krivsky does not understand the market for players. Did he think we were gonna lose Juan Castro on the open market? A competant organization should be able to shake a no-hit good glove infielder out of the trees for next to nothing. The minor leagues are full of young men who deserve to hit clean baseballs in bp a lot more than a proven mediocrity like juan castro.
by blotzphoto on Oct 16, 2006 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As for trading Dunn
The comments people added are interesting, bordering on humorous, as to the proposals teams might make to acquire Dunn. They're full of rag-armed middle relievers and bags of used batting practice balls. Maybe the Washington trade sparks that kind of thinking, but I can't see Dunn dealt without a quality SP coming back.
Although, the Albers-Pence offer from Houston made me pause for a minute or two.
by Thundering Turtle on Oct 16, 2006 9:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Krivs
by sukr on Oct 16, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To Red Menace
HR Runs OBP.
J. Morneau(Twins) 34 97 .375
A. Dunn 40 99 .365
T. Hunter (Twins) 31 86 .336
K. Griffey 27 62 .316
M. Cuddyer(Twins) 24 102 .362
R. Aurilia 23 61 .349
J. Mauer (Twins) 13 86 .429
D. Ross 21 37 .353*
P. Nevin (Twins) 10 28 .313*
B. Phillips 17 65 .324
J. Kubel (Twins) 8 23 .279*
E. Encarnacion 15 60 .359
Avg (Twins) 20 70.3 .349
(Reds) 23.8 64 .344.3
*Less than 250 ABs for the year.
There's not a whole lot of difference in the final results. An old golf addage says "Drive for show and putt for dough" Mine for baseball goes "Hit home runs for show and pitch for dough".
by Scotsman on Oct 16, 2006 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
more info
Anyways I was wrong. Slugging % correlates better than OBP to runs scored. Here's a good chart
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=48531
More advanced statistics correlate even better--Runs Created and whatnot, but I was trying to keep things simple. The stat that best correlates to run scoring (.964) is OBP*1.8 + SLG, a modified OPS which gives OBP better credit. Batting Average (.834) correlates worse than anything, and it's not even close.
I was expecting OBP to come out on top, but as someone in the forum points out, slugging more or less calculates a good portion of OBP (the walks) while giving each hit its proper respect, instead of treating them all the same as OBP and AVG do, so it shouldn't be surprising it leads to the most runs. More homeruns!
by Red Menace on Oct 16, 2006 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction
by Red Menace on Oct 16, 2006 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wisdom
by cggarb on Oct 16, 2006 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i just wanted to add
and i heard the Reds were going to get hats just like the twins, but they were going to take the "T" off. j/k.
it seems like such a long, long time ago that i had positive feelings about krivsky.
a pitching and defense team is going to do nothing to address the lack of attendance problem, that's for sure.
by Daedalus on Oct 16, 2006 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, Wayne
1) SLG all throughout the lineup. With guys like Ross, Phillips, and Aurilia, you can make the argument that the Reds still have this. But Ross is unlikely to duplicate his season, Aurilia is probably gone, and Griffey looks to be washed up to boot. Kearns certainly would help too, but Lopez was a product of GABP.
SLG is vitally important on a team with mediocre OBP because rallys will be tougher to come by. Such teams must be able to score runs by hitting the ball out of the park at any time.
- Four quality starters. The Reds currently have two, but Homer Bailey is on the way and maybe Castellini will shell out for a free agent. But the fact remains that they still only have two! You can't just dismiss OBP if you don't have the solid starting pitching to keep you in the game while the offense waits for a home run.
- A deep, flexible bullpen. Do I even have to say anything?
- Good defense. Chicago finished 2nd in the majors in defensive efficiency in 2005 and Detroit finished in 2nd in 2006. The Reds finished 28th last year and 21st this year.
Thumbs down, Wayne.
by teb7 on Oct 16, 2006 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Castellini
by Brendanukkah on Oct 16, 2006 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
by NYRed on Oct 16, 2006 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bray to the rotation?
by pw on Oct 16, 2006 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
NLCS Game 5
Advantage Mets, because their bullpen is more tired, and Glavine, their only legitimate starter, does not do well in the postseason on short rest.
by Paul Householder on Oct 16, 2006 6:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dunn isn't gone...
It would be nice to see Greenwell brought in. Dunn credited him with Dunn's explosiveness through AA and AAA.
Has anyone else read about Ryan Howard switching to a heavier bat to slow his swing down? Dunn's is too much of an upper cut it seems. If it isn't over the fence, it's a weak grounder to second.
by sledridge on Oct 16, 2006 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Greenwell
by pw on Oct 16, 2006 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rain outs suck
by Caleb on Oct 16, 2006 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ain't
by NYRed on Oct 16, 2006 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most Mets fans...
What's good for the Mets is bad for the Deadbirds.
by Paul Householder on Oct 16, 2006 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn not Done
by Billingsfan on Oct 16, 2006 10:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how is Dunn a hole?
by Slyde on Oct 16, 2006 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taking the short view
Krivsky just has a bee in his bonnet about cutting down strikeouts, which is a noble goal. Will a new hitting coach help? That remains to be seen. Maybe he needs to issue an O'Brien-esque proclamation about "swinging to contact."
by Brendanukkah on Oct 17, 2006 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn wasn't the only hole at the end
My concern with focusing on strikeouts is that he may be throwing out the baby with the bath water. I brought this up somewhere else on the site, but the Reds cut down on strikeouts by 111 from 2005 and they scored 71 fewer runs. I'm not saying that cutting strikeouts was the reason why, but there are certain types of offensive players who can be very productive even though they strike out a lot. Dunn happens to be one of those guys, as is Kearns when he is healthy. I think rather than focusing on how a player makes outs, it is a better philosophy to focus on players that don't make a lot of outs in the first place.
by Slyde on Oct 17, 2006 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bray in the Rotation?
by sweaver on Oct 16, 2006 10:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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