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Baseball Prospectus on New Red Jerry Gil, and Why the Reds Don't Seem to Care About OBP

Jerry Gil

I dug out my 2006 Baseball Prospectus to see what they had to say before the 2006 season about new Red Jerry Gil, and it's not pretty:

Offseason knee surgery shouldn't be a factor in his development, because there wasn't much developing going on, anyway. Scouts rave about his defense and particularly his arm, but offensively, his OBP has never topped .300. With the list of hitter friendly leagues and ballparks on his resume, that's inexcusable.

I think we've got to face the fact that getting on base is no longer a priority for the Cincinnati Reds. Let's look at why:

  1. The Reds traded Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, two guys who OBP a pretty solid .360 in an average year. They replaced Lopez with Royce Clayton, a guy who has a .313 OBP in 16 seasons.
  2. Krivsky signed Juan Castro to a two year contract. He has a .272 OBP in 12 seasons.
  3. Krivsky traded for Cody Ross, who ended the season with a .284 OBP.
  4. He traded for Dave Ross, a guy who had put up OBP's of .253 and .279 in the two seasons before coming to the Reds. This one definitely worked out, but it's certainly worthy of a bullet point in this discussion.
  5. Acquired Todd Hollandsworth, a player with a .328 OBP in 12 seasons.
  6. Dewayne Wise spent significant time with the Reds this season, despite his .236 OBP in 334 major league at bats.
The only point that I can think of in favor of Krivsky recognizing the value of getting on base is the signing of Scott Hatteberg.

I'm sure some will think I'm making a mountain out of a molehill here, and admittedly some of the listed moves were very minor. But I think we're about to see Adam Dunn get traded, and I don't have any confidence in Wayne Krivsky getting full value because I don't think he places enough importance on one of Dunn's biggest attributes.

Dunn just finished up a horrific season, and still managed to get on base at a .365 clip.

This, to me, is the most frightening thing about this organization right now. I have less and less confidence every day that Wayne Krivsky has a clue about putting together a good offense. Let's just hope he can find some more Bronson Arroyo's, because he's going to need quite a few to cover for the offense he's creating.

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Keep At It
I don't think you're making a mountain out of a molehill, I think you've hit the nail on the head.  Neglecting on-base, and offense at all from the middle infield, is why Minnesota languished while awash in young pitching and outfielders from the minor leagues, when smart moves could have won them multiple AL Central titles while the division was there for the taking.  It took the simultaneous development of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer to do it for them this year.
Rootin' the Reds home.

by sweaver on Oct 16, 2006 7:51 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm worried
I guess I'll point out that OBP correlates better with scoring runs than any stat, but I'm preaching to the choir here. That John Fay article yesterday really worried me. I don't care what "type" of team we have if they're winning, but I'd like a GM who knows certain things, such as how Ks come with power for some types of hitters. Let's hope the Dunn trade is good, because he's gone. Let's also hope we can develop some Santanas and Lirianos because Minnesota wouldn't get very far without them.

by Red Menace on Oct 16, 2006 8:13 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
although Castro was brought in, I believe, more for late inning "D" and to help assimilate the younger Latin players.
"Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes." - Crash Davis

by Caleb on Oct 16, 2006 8:13 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Juan Castro... ?
I rememember a BP comment once on the Juan Castro type of player. Can't find the actual quote, nut i think it was originally about Wilton Guerrero.

Goes something like " If your GM gives a guarateed contract at anything more than the major league minimum to (player like castro), then go down to his office and politely ask for $500,000, because he's obviously just giving it away"

Signing Juan Castro to a two ytear contract is, unfortunately, a sign that Krivsky does not understand the market for players. Did he think we were gonna lose Juan Castro on the open market? A competant organization should be able to shake a no-hit good glove infielder out of the trees for next to nothing. The minor leagues are full of young men who deserve to hit clean baseballs in bp a lot more than a proven mediocrity like juan castro.

by blotzphoto on Oct 16, 2006 9:05 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As for trading Dunn
MLBtraderumors.com has an item about the folly of trading Dunn.

The comments people added are interesting, bordering on humorous, as to the proposals teams might make to acquire Dunn. They're full of rag-armed middle relievers and bags of used batting practice balls. Maybe the Washington trade sparks that kind of thinking, but I can't see Dunn dealt without a quality SP coming back.

Although, the Albers-Pence offer from Houston made me pause for a minute or two.

by Thundering Turtle on Oct 16, 2006 9:24 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think Krivs
cares about OBP nearly as much as he does about making this team "his". That to me is the biggest problem.

by sukr on Oct 16, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To Red Menace
  Your post intrigued me.  I decided to take a look at the top 6 HR hitters on the Reds and Twins to see how the number of HR, Runs Scored and OBP correlated.  Got some interesting results:

                     HR     Runs     OBP.

  J. Morneau(Twins)  34     97       .375
  A. Dunn            40     99       .365

  T. Hunter (Twins)  31     86       .336
  K. Griffey         27     62       .316

  M. Cuddyer(Twins)  24     102      .362
  R. Aurilia         23     61       .349

  J. Mauer (Twins)   13     86       .429
  D. Ross            21     37       .353*

  P. Nevin (Twins)   10     28       .313*
  B. Phillips        17     65       .324

  J. Kubel (Twins)    8     23       .279*
  E. Encarnacion     15     60       .359

  Avg (Twins)        20     70.3     .349
      (Reds)         23.8   64       .344.3

  *Less than 250 ABs for the year.

  There's not a whole lot of difference in the final results.  An old golf addage says "Drive for show and putt for dough"  Mine for baseball goes "Hit home runs for show and pitch for dough".        

"Och Lad, makes me wanna hae a wee dram to ease me pain".

by Scotsman on Oct 16, 2006 1:30 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

more info
I was speaking in terms of total team production. I think their are too many variables for an individual's stats to correlate well.

Anyways I was wrong. Slugging % correlates better than OBP to runs scored. Here's a good chart
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=48531

More advanced statistics correlate even better--Runs Created and whatnot, but I was trying to keep things simple. The stat that best correlates to run scoring (.964) is OBP*1.8 + SLG, a modified OPS which gives OBP better credit. Batting Average (.834) correlates worse than anything, and it's not even close.

I was expecting OBP to come out on top, but as someone in the forum points out, slugging more or less calculates a good portion of OBP (the walks) while giving each hit its proper respect, instead of treating them all the same as OBP and AVG do, so it shouldn't be surprising it leads to the most runs. More homeruns!

by Red Menace on Oct 16, 2006 1:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

correction
My parenthetical (the walks) above should have been (the hits). Walks of course are not measured by SLG.

by Red Menace on Oct 16, 2006 3:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wisdom
All those baserunners just clog up the bases, anyway.  I want to see some bunts, dammit.

by cggarb on Oct 16, 2006 2:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i just wanted to add
FIRE NARRON!!!

and i heard the Reds were going to get hats just like the twins, but they were going to take the "T" off.  j/k.

it seems like such a long, long time ago that i had positive feelings about krivsky.

a pitching and defense team is going to do nothing to address the lack of attendance problem, that's for sure.

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Oct 16, 2006 2:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, Wayne
Kriv seems to be thinking "hey, the White Sox won in 2005 without any OBP and the Tigers are about to do the same in 2006!" That may be true, but those teams have many things the Reds don't have:

1) SLG all throughout the lineup. With guys like Ross, Phillips, and Aurilia, you can make the argument that the Reds still have this. But Ross is unlikely to duplicate his season, Aurilia is probably gone, and Griffey looks to be washed up to boot. Kearns certainly would help too, but Lopez was a product of GABP.

SLG is vitally important on a team with mediocre OBP because rallys will be tougher to come by. Such teams must be able to score runs by hitting the ball out of the park at any time.

  1. Four quality starters. The Reds currently have two, but Homer Bailey is on the way and maybe Castellini will shell out for a free agent. But the fact remains that they still only have two! You can't just dismiss OBP if you don't have the solid starting pitching to keep you in the game while the offense waits for a home run.
  2. A deep, flexible bullpen. Do I even have to say anything?
  3. Good defense. Chicago finished 2nd in the majors in defensive efficiency in 2005 and Detroit finished in 2nd in 2006. The Reds finished 28th last year and 21st this year.
So yeah, high OBP isn't a pre-requisite to winning, but you sure as hell better have those other 4 things if you're going to go about it that way. The Reds have one and a half.

Thumbs down, Wayne.

by teb7 on Oct 16, 2006 4:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe Castellini
can hang a gigantic garbage bag over the right field wall.  That should help us win, right?

by Brendanukkah on Oct 16, 2006 4:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
Must have.
I gotta take a wicked "yes"! - Peter Griffin

by NYRed on Oct 16, 2006 4:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bray to the rotation?
I haven't heard anyone else talk about it, but the Braves TV crew threw out this possibility when the Reds played the Braves after The Trade. Someone in their organization speculated that that might be Bray's role in the long run.

by pw on Oct 16, 2006 5:44 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

NLCS Game 5
Postponed due to rain, to be played on Tuesday.

Advantage Mets, because their bullpen is more tired, and Glavine, their only legitimate starter, does not do well in the postseason on short rest.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Oct 16, 2006 6:20 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunn isn't gone...
I agree with the articles saying Chambliss was sent packing because he couldn't straighten out Dunn.

It would be nice to see Greenwell brought in. Dunn credited him with Dunn's explosiveness through AA and AAA.

Has anyone else read about Ryan Howard switching to a heavier bat to slow his swing down? Dunn's is too much of an upper cut it seems. If it isn't over the fence, it's a weak grounder to second.

by sledridge on Oct 16, 2006 7:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Greenwell
I remember wishing he'd stick around as the hitting coach, but he had something else going, in Florida I think. Maybe he could at least work with Dunn in the spring.

by pw on Oct 16, 2006 8:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

rain outs suck
"Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes." - Crash Davis

by Caleb on Oct 16, 2006 8:04 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ain't
that the truth.
I gotta take a wicked "yes"! - Peter Griffin

by NYRed on Oct 16, 2006 8:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Most Mets fans...
Actually wanted the rainout because Glavine does better in the postseason on normal rest.

What's good for the Mets is bad for the Deadbirds.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Oct 16, 2006 10:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunn not Done
I agree with those who think that Chambliss was fired for his failure to make Dunn a better hitter. The guys is still a work in progress - if he carries on as he is, he's a hole in the lineup. Right now it's smarter to fire the coach than the player.

by Billingsfan on Oct 16, 2006 10:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how is Dunn a hole?
That's one pretty damn productive hole.  I know he's not a complete hitter, but I think you are being a little dramatic.

by Slyde on Oct 16, 2006 10:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Taking the short view
Dunn was definitely a hole the last month and a half of the season.  He came darn close to breaking his record for K's.  Now, is it wise to fire your hitting coach because your slugger tanked at a crucial time, even though two key offensive components were traded midseason, his other "slugger" protection had an owie on his toe, and the rest of the team wasn't being any help either?  Probably not.  Even though he was a hole at the end, Dunn still got his 40 dingers.

Krivsky just has a bee in his bonnet about cutting down strikeouts, which is a noble goal. Will a new hitting coach help?  That remains to be seen.  Maybe he needs to issue an O'Brien-esque proclamation about "swinging to contact."

by Brendanukkah on Oct 17, 2006 11:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunn wasn't the only hole at the end
You touched on this a bit, but there were a lot of disappearing acts at the end of the season.  If Dunn was a hole, then there were lots of holes in the lineup.  That's all I was trying to say.

My concern with focusing on strikeouts is that he may be throwing out the baby with the bath water.  I brought this up somewhere else on the site, but the Reds cut down on strikeouts by 111 from 2005 and they scored 71 fewer runs.  I'm not saying that cutting strikeouts was the reason why, but there are certain types of offensive players who can be very productive even though they strike out a lot.  Dunn happens to be one of those guys, as is Kearns when he is healthy.  I think rather than focusing on how a player makes outs, it is a better philosophy to focus on players that don't make a lot of outs in the first place.

by Slyde on Oct 17, 2006 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bray in the Rotation?
I don't think he has the necessary third pitch.  As far as I know, Bray has always been a reliever.
Rootin' the Reds home.

by sweaver on Oct 16, 2006 10:30 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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