Reflections on Sean Casey for Dave Williams

by JD Arney on Dec 7, 2005 2:35 AM EST in News Comment 18 comments

Ok, it's been a bit, and I've digested the Casey for Williams deal, and ... I like it. A lot.

There's a ton going on here, and I'm probably going to be prone to rambling tonight, so bear with me.

Anyone who reads this site on a regular basis knows that I'm pretty critical of Dan O'Brien. Some poster on ESPN's message board recently called me "a 25 year old guy who mostly rants", which is actually pretty dead on lately. Except that I'm 24, but whatever. I've simply reached the point in my life where I'm not satisfied with my favorite teams rebuilding or building, or whatever the hell you want to call it. If five years of losing happen then it's past time to blow up the ship. The Bengals of the 1990's showed me what can happen when you trust in status quo. Every year you feel like you get a little closer, but in reality you're just spinning your tires. Lately we haven't even had that in Reds land, as it feels like the franchise has gone backwards under Dan O'Brien.

There's been a culture with the Reds for years now where losing is okay as long as the team is cuddly and lovable. Everyone was best buds, and yeah the Reds only won 75 games a year, but hey they tried hard and ... well they were lovable. Danny Graves, Sean Casey, Paul Wilson, Jason LaRue, Aaron Boone, even Barry Larkin to an extent, all of these guys put their friendships ahead of their jobs. That's endearing, it really is. But it doesn't lead to success. If you can gather a group of 25 good players who love each other then that's awesome. But that's not going to happen very often. The Reds of recent years have disagreed, often holding on to players well past their expiration date.

Sean Casey is a great example of this. He clearly should have been dealt after his excellent 2004 season. This isn't the benefit of hindsight, many people thought that Casey should go to alleviate the logjam in the outfield, myself included. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back; it's simply not rocket science to be able to figure out that your sub .800 OPS first baseman might be the odd man out when your outfielders consist of Dunn/Griffey/Kearns/Pena.

But DanO didn't trade him. He does this all the time, holding onto players a beat too long, never maximizing his return.

That brings us to our present day situation. Many people upset at this trade seem to think that DanO could have gotten better, a claim that I find dubious. How many teams could have really been that interested in a light hitting, slow as molasses first basemen? The Pirates may have been it. The Red Sox and Dodgers both need first basemen, but the Red Sox would be better off going after Lyle Overbay, and the Dodgers have Choi as well as better internal options. You also have to remember that Casey has been good for the Reds franchise when it comes to a lot of things that GM's care about. He's been good in the community, he's clearly a fan favorite, etc. etc. And even if there were other offers on the table, DanO probably wanted to make a deal with Pittsburgh as a courtesy to Sean. And you know what? There's not a damn thing wrong with that. Casey deserves to go home if he has to go anywhere.

A lot of the other criticism of the deal that I'm seeing revolves around Dave Williams. I've seen him compared in various places as another Luke Hudson or Josh Hancock. That's absolutely absurd. The last time I checked neither Hudson or Hancock has ever pitched more than 10-50 innings of decent baseball at the major league level. Williams pitched 138.7 innings of league average baseball last season. In the major leagues, not at AAA. At the age of 26, an age that is just before a pitcher's traditional peak. The Reds have exactly two guys who are anywhere near as good as this guy, and their names are Aaron Harang and Brandon Claussen.

Williams is an upgrade for the starting rotation. Period. That might be a sad commentary on the Reds starters, blah, blah, blah, but what I see is the starting rotation being improved without a corresponding knock to the Reds offense. If no outfielders are traded then Cincinnati probably just traded Sean Casey's nine homeruns for 30+ Wily Mo Pena homeruns. I'll take that.

I like it. I'll like it even better if the new owners come in, immediately fire Dan O'Brien, and then sign Adam Dunn to a long term deal with some of the money that's been saved.

And hey, maybe Griffey will finally consider moving to first so that he can stay healthy for a few more years. This is pie in the sky stuff, but a guy can dream.

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Great post

I'm off to bed now, but I'll beat the good-trade drum tomorrow.

Was it Branch Rickey who said it's better to trade a player too soon than too late?

The Reds have one of the dumbest front offices in baseball. Search your heart, you know it to be true. Their only hope is to consistently find trading partners among the few even dumber franchises. I'm looking at you Pittsburgh. Thanks!

by Red Menace on Dec 7, 2005 2:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

thoughts

Stat wise, this trade is a no-brainer.
There will be some impact on the clubhouse, obviously. I'm not the typical saberfan who discounts team morale. I had great fun watching the Reds of a couple years ago do "the bounce" at home plate after they repeatedly won games in their final at bat. It was obvious that the recent Reds' ballclubs were filled with "good guys", which was never more evident than last season with little Antonio Perez (my season highlight from 2005 fyi). I don't believe the 2005 White Sox or the 1990 Reds were the most talented ballclubs in MLB, but that had grit.

I have a hunch that the Mayor had a lot of impact in keeping team morale up, which enabled the club to produce at a somewhat higher level.

That said, this ballclub desperately needs league average+ pitching. By any means necessary.
Who will make the recruiting calls to prospective free agents now that Casey is in PA?
I love the prospect of Junior playing 1B.
Weird thought. Wouldn't J. Pierre look great in center @ GABP? His OBP was down last season, but I'd take him in a heartbeat. There is nothing like a bona fide leadoff hitter to jumpstart an offense.
There are still several "ifs" in the lineup. (If EE makes "the jump", if Wily Mo/AK can reduce their nonproductive out ratio, if the catching tandem can remotely approach their '05 offensive production, if Freel/Junior can stay healthy).
POWER arms still needed in the pen. Red alert.

by ohiobobcat on Dec 7, 2005 8:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Casey 9 for Pena 30

Sure you get more home runs, but you also get a ton more strikeouts. How many strikeouts does Casey usually have? I can probably count them on my fingers.

You'll also lose Casey's high GIDP count, but you'll also get Pena's lousy fielding.

I was a much bigger fan of Pena getting traded, not Casey. Maybe Pena will be traded yet, but losing Casey for a decent, but no-name average pitcher is a big, big risk.

"Players have two things to do. Play and keep their mouths shut." -Sparky Anderson

by boohiss on Dec 7, 2005 9:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wait

Smiles and being a "Big Brother" just aint gonna get it done when you're a 1/2 dimensional player like Casey is. Why does the average fan in Cincy perpetuate the attachment to a semi-useless 6'4" slap-hitting fat-arse that runs like he's caught in a hurricane headwind...I know that I'm being harsh, but the only other team that would have done something as stupid as invest valuable dollars in a player of Casey's caliber at 1B is the Bucs. I will not miss him. Sorry. If he wasn't so likable and WHITE, Cincy fans would have aptly dumped on his production years ago...that is when they finally realized that batting .300 really doesn't mean a damn thing if your OPS is down below .800. Williams is probably a bag of balls, but if the money is used to lock Dunner up, then I'm all for it. I don't know who will hit in the 3 slot now? Freel?

Goodbye Uncle Carl, I never loved you.

by Pinetarfly on Dec 7, 2005 9:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

3 hole

Freel will not be considered for the 3 hole. Junior. We still have a logjam of LH bats in the 2-4 hole (Lopez, Junior, Dunn).

by ohiobobcat on Dec 7, 2005 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh, Yeah

I was joking. I was just always bewildered that Casey was in the 3 hole. They never seemed to understand that he was ill-suited for that role, about like Freel would be.

Goodbye Uncle Carl, I never loved you.

by Pinetarfly on Dec 7, 2005 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

And

Lopez is a switch-hitter as well.

Goodbye Uncle Carl, I never loved you.

by Pinetarfly on Dec 7, 2005 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This was a GREAT trade

This was a great trade, and you have to give DOB his due.

As much as y'all didn't like Sean Casey nor wanted him on your team, he was a HUGE ass ... asset. Asset. (Actually, I shouldn't be making fun of anyone else's derriere.) He was a great contact hitter, great clubhouse guy, team leader, and hard worker. Not his fault that the Reds had a surplus in OF-1B. Good for Case to be going home.
I'm sure it was hard to move Casey for one reason and one reason only: His salary ($7.8 mil last year -- could that be right?). But DOB found someone to take him where he will be valuable. And he got a young, major league, lefthanded starter for him. And DOB got to do right by Casey in the process. Are you kidding me? That's great.
As certain as everyone was that we had a huge logjam for the last several years, the truth is that the Reds had two injury-prone players, one who needs a little seasoning, and Dunn and Casey for four positions. Actually, that doesn't sound like all that much of a logjam for a 162-game season. There were times last year when it truly became uncomfortable, but really that was the first time in a few years that it was really all that bad.
I really enjoyed rooting for Casey these past, what, eight? years. I will still root for him for all but 17 games a year. (Anyone remember the hue and cry that the Reds and specifically Jim Bowden got when he traded his Opening Day starter, Dave Burba, the night before Opening Day for Casey?) But for the franchise, and we all do root for a bunch of uniforms, I think the right guy was traded. Dunn is great. Junior is Junior, and I think is untradable. Kearns I still believe has the possibility to be a very good player. And the Wily one could be Sammy Sosa. Well, maybe not 60 a year for four straight years, but he could put up some incredible numbers. Wily Mo is going to turn 24 on Jan. 23. He's not 24 yet.
I like the fact that Cincinnati is a good place to play. I think it helps, considering that they aren't going to have the middle-tier or higher payroll (that's another subject). So you actually need to have good players on the club.

DOB: Great job. Case: Good luck.

Love is a burnin' thing. It makes a fiery ring. thankyouverymuch

by oldcleat on Dec 7, 2005 10:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great Post

Your riff on likeable players not winning anything is just fantastic, in my book.

Naturally, the Enquirer coverage centers around the question "Who's going to be the leader of the team?!?". To that, I'd like to offer up this suggestion: the Manager. I know, it's crazy, but let's face it, that's his job.

by bobestes on Dec 7, 2005 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

re: this was a GREAT trade

Thanks oldcleat for making all of my points, up here in Canada I have been watching with great interest as to what the Jays have been doing but my heart will always be with the Reds...getting anything for Casey at this point is great because:

It frees up 1B for the crowded OF
Gets rid of salary needed to sign Dunn and whoever else
Getting a cheap .500 LHP at age 26 who has decent/average numbers can only help - even if he is the LH specialist out of the bullpen.

The Reds are spinning their wheels right now and desperately need pitching so the time is to bolster the farm system/major league pitching at all costs (and there was NO way Pittsburgh was going to give up Duke)...let's hope DOB (or whoever else is GM) sinks a boatload of money into the farm system and pray that nothing happens to Homer Bailey.

"Who needs scouts? All they do is sit around and watch games." Marge Schott, the bane of my existence

by bigredmachine on Dec 7, 2005 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Still not crazy about it.

I have no problem with trading Casey. He's a nice guy (maybe too nice?), but he's not someone to build around: his offensive performance is often subpar for a first baseman and his defense, while passable, certainly won't make up for offensive shortcomings. This, on top of the redundancy we had in offensive players, made it reasonable to trade him...

But I think we needed to do more than the reasonable thing. I think we needed to take a risk. We needed to make a blockbuster deal, accepting that our offense would not be what it was last year in return for a substantial boost to our starting pitching next year.

Now we have far fewer options. We no longer have redundancy among position players, which means that unless we're willing to deal with Bergolla or Denorfia as a starter next year, or if we resign Aurilia at 2B, we're going to need to get a position player in addition to a pitcher in return for a trade. And that will decrease the quality of the pitcher we receive.

I'd be fine with the Casey deal if it the peak trading season had passed and we were just trying to get something done. But it strikes me as far too early in the offseason to throw in the towel...which is what this feels like to me.
-j

by JinAZ on Dec 7, 2005 1:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thumbs down...

I like trading Casey. By all accounts, he's a wonderful person and a great off-field asset for the club. And frankly, the Reds need all the off-field help they can get right now. But I don't think that Casey's off-field assets are worth $8.5 million.

My problem with the trade is what they got in return. I know we need pitching, but do we really need yet another starter who a) can't get strikeouts, b) walks people too much, and c) gives up too many homers? Yeah, he's a lefty, and yeah, he's (relatively) young, but is Dave Williams the best they could do?

by ellipsis11 on Dec 7, 2005 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Dave Williams is all that Casey is worth, all factors considered. That's what Cinti. fans just do not seem to get. They think that just because they may like him, that he has some magical increase in value...he does not, and certainly not at the price. I mean who do people think we could get for his slap hittin' butt? Mark Prior?

Goodbye Uncle Carl, I never loved you.

by Pinetarfly on Dec 7, 2005 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

"That's what Cinti. fans just do not seem to get. They think that just because they may like him, that he has some magical increase in value...he does not, and certainly not at the price."

You're kidding right? Who are these people you are alking about? No one here ever claimed that it was bad to trade Casey because of his off-the-field character. No one.

by Brian B on Dec 7, 2005 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmmm

I guess from a financial standpoint it is a good buisness move. I hope this guy can contribute but my first thought is I'm not sure I like this one

"Baseball is a simple game. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball." ~Manager Joe "Skip" Riggins, Durham Bulls

by Caleb on Dec 7, 2005 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Thumbs down

I agree that they traded Casey too early and could've done better. What happenned to the Bronson Arroyo rumor? Did that go away after the Becket/Lowell trade? Sure would've taken Arroyo over Williams. BB/9: Williams 3.76, Arroyo 2.36. HR/9: Williams 1.30, Arroyo 0.96. K/BB: Williams 1.52, Arroyo 1.85.

by ken on Dec 7, 2005 9:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Thumbs down

I believe the Arroyo rumour was just that...a rumour.
There was going to be more to that trade from Cincy's side, unless of course the Reds made the deal LAST year - which is when they SHOULD have gotten rid of him...oh well!
Give Williams a chance, that's all I have to say...

"Who needs scouts? All they do is sit around and watch games." Marge Schott, the bane of my existence

by bigredmachine on Dec 8, 2005 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scott Miller

from CBS sportsline is on XM right now and just laughed at how badly the Pirates took Cincinnati on the Casey deal. I know, what does Scott Miller know that we don't. But Charlie Steiner didn't balk at the comment.

by Brian B on Dec 8, 2005 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs