Red Reposter - Tomahawk Chop to the Top
Well that was fun! The Reds completed the 4-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves last night, stretching their winning streak to 6. Devin Mesoraco hit his first career grand slam and Homer Bailey gave the Reds their 6th straight quality start. I think it's fair to say this team is beginning to find their groove.
Nearly everyone on this team is contributing, as Jack Moore points out over at ESPN. Perhaps the most encouraging thing about the sweep of the Braves is the fact that the Reds got basically zero production from their top dogs: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.
Aroldis Chapman should be the National League's starting pitcher in the All Star Game, according to the Sporting News. Well, he is the best pitcher on planet earth, so... YES!
Oh, did I mention that the Cardinals lost last night? That means that the Reds currently sit atop the standings in the NL Central. After a slow start to the season the Reds have made an extremely impressive turnaround. Meanwhile the WLBs have lost 9 of their last 14 games with injuries mounting.
Before we continue with the linkage, let me provide one more reason to be optimistic about your first-place Reds. Much has been made of this team's inability to hit with runners in scoring position.Well I'm here to tell you that the lack of hits with runners in scoring position will not, and can not, continue. Consider the following...
National League offense, last ten years:

Do you really think the Reds are going to post their worst batting average in over 10 years, and on top of that be 42 points worse with runners in scoring position? Recent history suggests that this will not continue. The Reds are in first place, and are only going to get better.
Farmers Only: Who Needs the Farm? SWEEP!
Quick and dirty as I'm filling in. Man oh man that sweep felt good.
- Louisville lost to Indy in a long heartbreaker of a pitcher's duel, 2-1. The 15-inning affair featured an admirable 7 inning performance from Jeff "Plan B" Francis, who gave up just 1 run on 4 hits. Nick Christiani and Scott Carroll combined for 5 scoreless relief innings before Jordan Smith gave it away in the 15th. Despite 11 hits from the Bats, only 2 went for extra bases (doubles from Dioner Navarro and Bill Rhinehart). Joey Gathright went 1 for 1 with a walk as a PH/CF in his first game for Louisville. Up next: Pedro Villareal (2-0, 3.32 ERA) looks to continue his success in AAA against Indy at 7:15.
- Pensacola beat the Mississippi Braves 4-2 thanks in large part to Yordanys "the Menace" Perez and his 2-3 day that included mistering a solo Wilson and an RBI single. The Hellflower went 2-4 with a double as well, providing the offensive support for a decent, if unspectacular, outing from J.C. Sulbaran, who lasted five and two-thirds, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits, striking out 3 and walking 2. DoJo continued to roundhouse kick opponents in the face with his curveballs, striking out 3 in 1.2 innings for his 11th save on the year. Oh, and Ryan LaMarre had 2 outfield assists. Nice. Up next: Kyle Lotzkar (1-1, 1.10 ERA) looks to make poutine out of the Braves at 8.
- Bakersfield lost in extras to San Jose, 4-3, in the 12th inning. Chris Joyce blew it. Sir Quix-a-Lot stole 2 bases, and Devin Lohman and Juan Duran joined The Knockwurst in slamming pogs over the fence. Maybe it's just the Cal League, but Lohman has already honked half as many wangers as he did all of last year. We really do have a glut of middle infield talent, even if Lohman's ceiling is limited. Tony Cingrani had his first human outing, giving up two whole runs in 5.1 innings of work, striking out a mere 4, and walking 2. Hopefully he's just working on that breaking ball. Up next: Justice French Onion Soup (0-0, 1.06) aims to souffle San Jose (that's fun to say out loud) at everyone-will-be-drinking o'clock (10:30 ET).
- Dayton learned the hard way that walks will haunt, losing to Lansing 5-2 after the pitching staff walked 12 on the night. Dan Jensen had a WHIP of 3.00 in his 4 innings as a starter, while James Allen and El'Hajj Muhammad matched him in finishing out the game, though the former didn't allow a run in his 3 innings of work. Kurtis Muller was the only Dragon with more than 1 hit, going 2-4 with the lone RBI (the other run scored on an error). Up next: Rowdy Rad Quezada (1-5, 3.65) takes the hill in the rubber match against Lansing at 7:05.
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep!! 6-3 Redlegs win.
The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game
The big star tonight was Devin Mesoraco. The Golem clobbered a grand slam in the 6th inning to give the Reds the lead. Honorable mentions to Drew Stubbs, who toasted a pop tart of his own in the 7th to go along with a single and a stolen base, and Homer Bailey, who pitched six strong allowing only four hits and a walk while striking out six.
Key Plays
Homer and Randall Delgado matched each other pitch for pitch through the first three, but the Reds were able to scratch a crooked one in the 4th. Chris Heisey knocked a one-out single and then Todd Frazier doubled him home. 1-0 Redlegs.
The Braves answered in the top of the 5th when Homer made really his only mistake of the game, giving up a two-run smashazoid to Michael Bourn. He's like six scoops of double-fudge awesomecream right now though, so I'm not gonna blame Homer for that. Dude pitched lights out otherwise.
The Reds turned it around in the 6th when Delgado walked Phillips to lead off the inning. After Jay Bruce hit a hard liner right at the 1B, Heisey collected his second single of the game to put runners at 1st and 3rd. Todd Frazier walked to load them up, and Kris Medlen was called upon to stop the bleeding. Apparently, he didn't get that in this metaphor more blood would be a bad thing, and he promptly gave up the grand piano to Mesoraco. Blood everywhere.
Juan Francisco, El Nino Destructor exacted some revenge in the 7th, smacking a homer of his own. But Drew Stubbs got the run back in the bottom half to make it 6-3 Redlegs.
Source: FanGraphs
Game 44: Reds vs. Braves (7:10 EDT). Bailey vs. Delgado.
After the game-winning brap that Todd Frazier clarked last night, the Reds are looking looser than they have in a long time. But since at least the middle of 2011, if not my entire life, I haven't been able to tell an empty cliche from a legitimate turning point.
The Reds' run differential says they should have lost a couple more games, but their strength of schedule is among the toughest in the NL. Personally, I think the eyeball test is as good as any to judge whether a team is overachieving. Homer Bailey, for one, looks to be right where I'd expect.
Bailey and Delgado matched up 10 days a go. Homer got the better end of the deal, though they both pitched 6.2 innings and had very similar lines. One notable nugget: that game was Jay Bruce's last multi-hit affair. He had two hits off Delgado, including a double (he's had just two hits since). Any port in a storm.
Homer es delgado, but Delgado is no Homer. Go Reds!
From The Opponent's Feed™: Not-a-Homer Simpson
Braves color commentator Joe Simpson, 1995 "Georgia Sports Broadcaster of the Year," dropped several interesting nuggets of information and analysis during the Braves v. Reds series sweep ass-handing embarrassment of the Atlanta National League Base Ball Club. The Reds beat America's Team, which is exactly the kind of thing Roy Brewer, Sr. tried to quash.
Taking his Slumps: Jay Bruce
While the Reds are on an upward trajectory, Jay Bruce is foundering in the midst of one of his signature slumps.
Despite what you may have heard, Bruce as a .850 OPS/.360 wOBA/very good player is not somehow worse than a player with the same stat line who might arrive there with less streaky production - unless you can show that Bruce only contributes in games the Reds' would have won or lost by a wide margin.
It should also be mentioned that, despite his recent struggles, Jay has a .366 wOBA (higher than he's posted in any single season previously).
His fits and starts do prompt the question as to what's driving him to look so lost after recently looking so terrific and almost the best.
On May 8, Jay was hitting a svelte .306/.342/.667. That wasn't even 3 weeks a go, so please tell me I'm not wasting my time on this post. I'm already 4 internet paragraphs in, so there's no turning back. Since then, he's been tumbling. Over the last two weeks, he's been the Reds' worst regular, hitting .163/.255/.256. His OPS is .214 (!) over the last 7 days.
During that time, he has a 35.3% K-rate and the lowest line drive rate of any non-Rolen/non-pitcher
Why? Is this stretch pure noise in the context of an 162 game season or is it something deeper, possibly endemic to his previous slumps? Good question. I guess. Honestly, I wonder if it's not just the fact that it's only been like 2 weeks. Two, two and a half...
I'd be happy with the small sample size explanation if the slump wasn't so deep or part of a pattern. After the jump, a few recurring factors that might help explain.
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Red Reposter - Five-game winning streaks are better than five gamy skinny steaks
Fingers crossed
Nick Masset should be throwing some baseballs today. He hasn't thrown in over a month due to soreness in his shoulder. The bullpen has been terrific without him, but a healthy and productive Masset could take some of the pressure off of Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, and Ondrusek, who have all worked a great deal already this season.
Hall o' Famer Hal says this could be the year of the 12
Because that's Dusty Baker's uniform number, as well as the year. Also, Todd Frazier's number is 21, which is 12 in reverse. And when you really start to think about it, there are 12s all over this team. The Reds have been to the playoffs 13 times in their history, which is just one more than 12. Barry Larkin is being inducted into the Hall of Fame this season, and his jersey number was 11. That's just one away from 12. As a team, the Reds have 12 saves so far (eight for Marshall, two for Chapman, and one each for Ondrusek and Arredondo). Aroldis Chapman has been other-worldly so far this season, and he's 24 years old. Cut that in half, and you...well, you get it.
Jason Linden at Redleg Nation tries to parse out how much of the Reds' offensive struggles is due to luck
and how much is due to plain ol' notverygoodness. In short, the struggles so far are due, in part, to bad BABIP luck. So you can bet that they will likely hit better as the season progresses and that luck normalizes. But he also cautions that the team just isn't walking enough to make him believe that they will be a league-leading offense again. So while they will probably hit better, it probably won't be as much as you'd like. Good stuff, Jason.
It ain't just about filling out the lineup card
Dusty Baker did some good work this week, giving Zack Cozart some helpful hitting tips. He was in a 2-26 slump when Dusty pointed out to him that his timing was a bit off. Since then he's 6-15. You really have to give the credit to Cozart though, for being willing to listen and doing all the actual work. I mean, the way he was hitting, any manager would have obviously seen the issue and corrected it. You can't really give Dusty credit for something he's supposed to do. /endsarcasm
On Tuesday, Cozart's wango walk was tied for the fastest of the day
He circled the bases in 18.79 seconds, which is fairly quick compared to the average. If you don't already, it's really fun to keep tabs on Wezen-Ball'sTater Trot Tracker. Mike Leake's donation to the National Association for the Distribution of Bleacher Souvenirs resulted in the 4th-fastest trot this season, which is cool.
Baseball America has done some damn fine work in divining the draft bonus caps for every team in this year's draft
Click on through for a detailed explanation, but long story short, the Reds are squarely in the middle of the pack with $6.6 mil to spend on the 12 picks they have in the first ten rounds.
And now, follow along after the jarm for a look at what the rest of the SBNL Central is talking about:
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Reds Injury Update
Since the last update, Denis Phipps and Scott Rolen have hit the DL, while Miguel Cairo came off it. He returned about a week after he was expected to, lending credence to the BubbaFan mantra of "it's always a longer time than they say." Phipps was placed on the 7-day minor league DL, which is standard procedure for anything that isn't a season-ending injury. I have seen no timetable for his expected return, but he's been sidelined for eight days now.
Scott Rolen has shoulder problems again. He's already had 4 surgeries, two since becoming a Red. I don't foresee him going under the knife again personally, so all parties are probably hoping rest will allow the inflammation and pain to subside over his 15-day DL stint. It's been 12 days and I don't get the impression Rolen is close to returning. Considering the persistence of this problem for Rolen over so much time now, we could be seeing the end of a career.
On the bullpen front, there's still no word on Masset's return. He's been sidelined for almost two months on the dot, and has not begun throwing. Bill Bray was also experiencing problems during spring training which failed to subside, and which now has him on the DL, where he's been for 37 days. The Reds have offered no insight into a timetable.
Also at AAA, Daryl Jones had eye surgery two weeks ago and remains sidelined. Louisville is having a tough time keeping all our potential 8th outfielders healthy. Paul Janish's broken wrist is expected to keep him out for two and a half more weeks. Dioner Navarro returned to action after passing kidney stones and missed 8 days. Sean Buckley went onto and came off the DL for a sprained ankle at A Dayton; maybe we can blame that for his disappointing recent performance.
As always, you can get the organization's injury situation at a glance by the link on the left sidebar, or click the title to this FanShot at your convenience.

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