I know everybody has probably already talked themselves to death on this subject in your pool halls and at the local watering hole, but I had technical difficulties yesterday that prevented me from joining in, so now I will say my part.

First, let's look at Jermaine Dye's numbers over the last 3 seasons:

NOTE: I've added a new column to the table.  Some of you may not be familiar with wOBA, but it stands for Weighted On Base Average and the short description is that it is a "runs per plate appearance" stat that has been adjusted to follow the OBP scale.  So, .335 is about average, .400 is very good, and Corey Patterson posted a .250 last season.  You can read more about wOBA here.

The first thing to point out about Dye is that 2006 is very much an outlier in his career.  The next highest slugging percentage for his career is .561, which he posted in 2000 with the Royals.  Those two seasons are the only time his OPS has been over .900 as well.  Not to say that Dye is a bad player, but we shouldn't expect him to be the guy he was in 2006.

What should we expect then?   Well, only two major forecasting systems have been freely released at this point, and both have him putting up very similar numbers:

Defensively, Chone Smith projects him at about 6 plays below average in either corner outfield spot.

Dye may get a little bit of a boost offensively by moving to the NL, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better than he was last season, and he would have finished 5th on the Reds in Justin's Total Value rating.  So, I don't exactly think we're talking about a huge upgrade to the offense here.

So why would the Reds want him?  Well, for one thing, he kills left-handed pitching.  Over the last 3 seasons, his OPS against lefties has been 1.075, .925, and .917.  He'd definitely add some pop to the lineup.  He has the 8th most home runs in the Majors over the last 4 seasons.  He's got a ring.  Arroyo's the only other current Reds player that can say that.

The real question though is "What's the goal?"  Dye is owed $11.5 million in 2009 and has a $10 million option ($1 million buyout) for 2010.  Adding Dye alone to the lineup does not turn the Reds into contenders.  And while he adds some pop to the lineup, he does nothing to help the shoddy defense.  I've said before that Dye is the type of player that you pick up to turn your team into a finished product, not as your first move of the off-season. 

The Reds are several pieces away from a finished product right now.  If they had already acquired some players to solidify the infield defense and all they needed was a right-handed bat to round things out, I'd say go after Dye.  But bringing Dye in pretty much locks Encarnacion in at 3B, unless they trade him (and EdE's projections look a lot like Dye's).  Having an opening in LF gives the Reds the flexibility to be creative, but acquiring Dye would mean the Reds are using brute force to fill a hole.

I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not opposed to acquiring Dye.  He's a very good hitter and would definitely add something to the Reds lineup.  However, he wouldn't be the first move I make because acquiring an outfielder limits the team's options.  If Dye could put up Matt Holliday type numbers, I'd be all for it.  But since Dye's upside is essentially replacing Dunn's, offensively and defensively, I just don't find it to be the smart move at this point.

David Zalubowski/AP

Matt Holliday Left Fielder  Born: January 15, 1980 Bats: R   Throws: R Contract Status: 2009 - $13.5 million, free agent after 2009 Year PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG RAR FRAR TtlVal 2006 667 34 114 10 .326 .387 .586 45.8 6.8 47.0 2007 713 36 137 11 .340 .405 .607 61.7 10.8 66.8 2008 623 25 88 28 .321 .409 .538 52.3 8.2 55.3

Eric Risberg/AP

Magglio Ordonez Left Fielder Born: January 28, 1974 Bats: R   Throws: R Contract Status: 2009 - $18M, 2010 - $15M option ($3M buyout), 2011 - $15M option (no buyout) * Options become guaranteed at $18M (2010) & $15M (2011) with either 135 starts or 457 PAs in 2009. Year PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG RAR FRAR TtlVal 2006 646 24 104 1 .298 .350 .477 30.6 -8.3 17.0 2007 678 28 139 4 .363 .434 .595 78.8 2.2 75.9 2008 623 21 103 1 .317 .376 .494 36.2 -10.0 21.4

These are two players who have gotten some mention in the local press as potential acquisitions.  I'm not so convinced, but I thought I'd bring them up to the RR intelligentsia.  A couple of notes on both players:

Some have said that they don't want Holliday because of the Coors effect, but I'm not buying that as a reason.  His power drops a bit away from Coors, but that should be less of an issue coming to GABP.  Even with the dip in power, he's still posted lines of .301/.374/.485 and .308/.405/.486 on the road the last two years.  He'd still be the Reds best hitter with those numbers.

I honestly don't have a whole lot of interest in Magglio Ordonez, but I thought he was a good juxtaposition to Holliday.  As you can see, he'd probably be a defensive liability in LF and his contract is only attractive if he's not healthy - if that makes sense.  The good news is that his availability is primarily because the Tigers want to dump some salary, so hopefully it wouldn't cost too much to acquire him.  Still though, I'm not sure he's worth it.

What do you think?  Do either of these guys interest you for LF next season?  Who would you be willing to trade to get them?

Steve Ruark/AP

Brian Roberts Secondbaseman Born: October 9, 1977 Bats: B   Throws: R Contract Status: 2009 - $8 million, free agent after 2009 Year PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG RAR FRAR TtlVal 2006 629 10 55 36 .286 .347 .410 20.4 6.5 27.8 2007 716 12 57 50 .290 .377 .432 43.9 3.2 48.0 2008 704 9 57 40 .296 .378 .450 45.9 6.2 53.0

Okay, so there didn't seem to be too much interest in Adrian Beltre.  How about we up the ante a little bit?  Brian Roberts was linked to frequent rumors last Spring with the Chicago Cubs.  At the time it was rumored that the Orioles were looking to trade most of their veterans, but no real deals went through.  The latest rumors on Roberts are mixed as some say he's working on an extension with the Orioles and others say he's available for the right deal.

Positives: He's pretty much everything you could want in a second baseman.  His defense is solid and he has an excellent bat.  His on-base skill and his speed make him a perfect fit for the lead-off spot.  His skills remind me a lot of Barry Larkin.  Not coincidentally, Larkin is his #4 comp on Baseball Reference.

Negatives: Trading for Roberts would force a move of Brandon Phillips to shortstop, which some might not like, but I support.  Such a move would require the Reds to either eat or dump Alex Gonzalez's $5.4 million contract.  Being that Roberts is an All Star caliber player, his cost might likely be too high to be worth trading for just one year of service.  His name was included in the Mitchell Report.

Possible Alternatives: Orlando Hudson (Free Agent), Rafael Furcal (Free Agent), Jerry Hairston (Free Agent), David Eckstein (Free Agent), Adam Kennedy (STL),

Fun Fact:  His .516 OPS against the Reds is the second lowest against any team for Roberts (behind STL - .333).  Just think of how much better he'll hit when he doesn't have to face the Reds pitchers 14 times over his next 4000+ plate appearances

Who would you be willing to give up to acquire Roberts?  Would you want the deal to include a contract extension right off the bat?  If you think he's worth acquiring, try to make your deal suggestions realistic from the Orioles perspective.  If you don't think he's worth acquiring, is it because you think the Reds are set in the middle infield or because you don't particularly want Roberts?

Charles Rex Arbogast/AP

Adrian Beltre Thirdbaseman Born: April 7, 1979 Bats: R   Throws: R Contract Status: 2009 - $12 million, free agent after 2009 Year PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG RAR FRAR TtlVal 2006 681 25 89 11 .268 .328 .465 25.6 14.5 41.0 2007 639 26 99 14 .276 .319 .482 26.7 3.4 30.9 2008 612 25 77 8 .266 .327 .457 23.8 23.7 48.3

There were murmurs in September that Adrian Beltre does not want to play for a team in rebuilding mode, which might be the case with the Mariners in 2009.  Whether or not he is truly available is unclear, but that's never stopped us from speculating before.

Positives: As you can see, he's an excellent defensive 3B - one of the top 2 or 3 in the league.  Bringing him in could gain the Reds as much as 40 runs on defense alone at 3B.  He's got some pop from the right side and could potentially slug .500 in GABP.  His one year contract is low risk for the Reds, even if it seems like a large amount of money to spend.  Unless the Reds re-sign him, he won't likely block the young 3B prospects the Reds have in the minors.

Negatives: On a team already looking like they'll struggle to get on base, Beltre isn't going to help.  Trading for Beltre may cost the Reds a good prospect or two, and since the Reds will need help beyond Beltre, losing prospects for a one-year rental may not be worth the risk.  I don't know much about Beltre's personality, but for some reason I seem to remember him being somewhat surly (correct me if I'm wrong, please). 

Possible Alternatives: Mark Teahan (KC), Joe Crede (Free Agent), Casey Blake (Free Agent), sticking with EdE.

Fun Fact:  The last time Beltre was playing for a contract, he batted .334/.388/.629 for the Dodgers and hit 48 home runs while finishing 2nd in the MVP race.

Who would you be willing to give up to acquire Beltre?  Would you want the deal to include a contract extension right off the bat?  If you think he's worth acquiring, try to make your deal suggestions realistic from the Mariners perspective (i.e. don't give them somebody to replace Ichiro since he's not likely to go anywhere soon).  If you don't think he's worth acquiring, is it because you think the Reds are set at 3B or because you don't particularly want Beltre?